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| Israel-Palestine-Jordan |
| Kadima does well in polling despite Sharon's illness |
| 2006-01-12 |
| Ariel Sharon's party and his likely successor Ehud Olmert received a boost Wednesday from polls showing they would easily win Israel's March election even without the incapacitated prime minister at the helm. The latest surveys put Sharon's centrist Kadima Party well ahead of its rivals, though campaigning has been frozen since the 77-year-old leader suffered a massive stroke a week ago. Kadima, which Sharon formed to capitalize on broad backing for Israel's Gaza pullout in September, already had been widely favored to win a sweeping victory in the March 28 election. But after the January 4 stroke, many political analysts had questioned whether the party, largely seen as a product of the force of Sharon's personality and shifting approach to the Palestinians, could survive. However, polls in the Haaretz and Maariv dailies found that Kadima led by interim Prime Minister Olmert, Sharon's deputy, would take 44-45 seats in Israel's 120-seat Parliament, its strongest showing so far. The polls predicted the center-left Labor Party under Amir Peretz would get 16-18 seats while the rightist Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu after Sharon's defection, would fall to third place with 13-15 seats. Labor secretary general Eitan Cabel dismissed Kadima's rise in the polls as an "expression of public sympathy" for Sharon and predicted the effects would wear off. Even Kadima's campaign manager, Cabinet minister Tsahi Hanegbi, voiced surprise, saying: "Some of this is certainly an emotional vote." Many Israelis doubt Olmert, 60, a former Jerusalem mayor and Sharon loyalist who has served in the prime minister's shadow, has the stature and charisma to take bold steps with the Palestinians that Sharon may have envisioned. Much of Sharon's popularity in Israel stems from a belief that he could take diplomatic action that no one else could get away with, given his background as an archetypal hawk. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #2 Let me pull out my crystal ball. Kadima will break up before the election. |
| Posted by: gromgoru 2006-01-12 11:21 |
| #1 Kadima will do well for several factors. First of all, Israel has long been in need of a centrist party that is not swayed by either its extremist factions, as are Labor and Likud; nor is in a balance with the other party so equally matched that tiny third parties control the agenda. This means that Kadima shoots to be the "silent majority" party, focused on majority, not minority issues. Second of all, Kadima has a minimal platform and no political baggage. By standing for only a few things, its "negatives" are very low, it hasn't pissed off the voters as have the older parties who have both made unpopular decisions in the past. Third, of the little parties in Israel, those with a centrist leaning have a strong motive to join with Kadima, in the hopes of evolving its eventual platform in their direction. Or at least getting some of their favored issues to the forefront. Fourth, by winning big, lots of pork projects to the other parties will be put at risk. This means that everybody invested in these projects will want Kadima to continue with their cut, so they will have to both support and strongly lobby Kadima. All told, things are looking good for them. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2006-01-12 10:18 |