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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| VDH: The Multilateral Moment? |
| 2006-01-14 |
| "Multilateralism good; preemption and unilateralism bad.â For four years we have heard these Orwellian commandments as if they were inscribed above the door of Farmer Jonesâs big barn. Now we will learn their real currency, since the Americans are doing everything imaginable â drawing in the Europeans, coaxing the Russians and Chinese to be helpful at the U.N., working with international monitoring agencies, restraining Israel, talking to the Arabs, keeping our jets in their hangars â to avoid precipitous steps against Iran. Its theocracy poses a danger to civilization even greater than a nuclear North Korea for a variety of peculiar circumstances. Iran is free of a patron like China that might in theory exert moderate influence or even insist on occasional restraint. North Korea, for an increasingly wealthy and capitalist China, is as much a headache and an economic liability as a socialist comrade. In contrast, Iran is a cash cow for Russia (and China) and apparently a source of opportunistic delight in its tweaking of the West. Iranian petro-wealth has probably already earned Tehran at least one, and probably two, favorable votes at the Security Council. |
| Posted by:.com |
| #8 Old Spook, thanks for outlining the nightmare scenario in detail. Should be required reading in our political circles. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2006-01-14 20:19 |
| #7 Jules - you can bet your life that Israel has operatives on the ground in Iran - risking their lives to gather site info/weapons possibilities, air defenses, etc. Even an all USAF attack would have Israeli fingerprints and responsibilities for success/failure on it. We are not alone, nor should they be. VDH's PR campaign is on the money. We have to make it clear that we were drug into this against all wishes. Decap strikes and leave the population to rise up - I like the leafletting idea... the MM's would go even nuttier with paranoia and purges |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-01-14 12:48 |
| #6 yes |
| Posted by: 3dc 2006-01-14 12:17 |
| #5 So we'd keep Saudi and Pak land under the nuclear umbrella but not Europe? Much as I detest Europe, I wouldn't go that far. But what we should be doing is leafletting Iran so that the civilians know that: 1) the MMs cannot protect them or control their own airspace 2) We are prepared to respond to the use of any radioactive weapon by terrorists or Iran with a direct attack on Iran 3) That the attack on Iran will be primarily on Persian cities, that Kurdish areas will be spared. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-01-14 12:15 |
| #4 The bottom line: IF we do not fix this, Israel will have no choice but defend themselves. The only choice for them is to do something either before they get nuked or after. If its before, then you have VDH's scenario. IF its after, then Israel will be sure to destroy and all acapaicty for strikes, terroristm and action coming from Iran. That means they will use probably over 100 nuclear weapons across Iran. Iran will see deaths numbering in the range of 25-30 million after all is said and done, and its major cities and modern infrastructure will be destroyed. Its "religious" sites will likely be destroyed as well, since thats where the leadership tends to stay. Starvation, radiation poisoning, and disease will run rampant. Iran will be destroyed as a culture in addition to being destroyed as a nation. The west, in this scenario would be obligated to sieze and maintain the Iranian oilfields, to prevent even larger economic dislocations. The initial effects would be a huge increase in petroleum prices, gasoline well nort og $7 a gallon in the US, and spot shorateges fo all kinds of petroleum products world wide. It would open an opportunity for Chavez to launch an embargo onthe US that woudl require us to act against him for reasons of national security. SO we sould end up maintaining Iraq with a horrible Islamist guerilla war, Iran (with the Europeans) in terrible circumstances and probable guerilla war, and Venezuela against jungle warfare. THis leaves Kim Jong Il freedom to slip the leash, and he may take advantage of the disrutption to come over the border in an attempt to grab Seoul before we can react, then hold it hostage (think back to the rape of Nanking) or hope for the collapse of S. Koreas backbone. In short, this one has stewed for WAY too long, and we damn well better fix it SOON, and that means the Europeans wil have to get off their asses and get their hands dirty. If they dont help us, and keep up this stupid obstructianism form the French and Germans, then I thinkits time fo the US to say to hell with Europe, secure our borders, secure our oild supplies and trade routes with our frinds in the Pacific and Eastern Europe,, and let Germany, Fance, Belgium, et al rot under the threat of Iranian nukes. Tell a nuclear armed Iran that if they strike Europe other than our friends in Poland, etc, we will not retaliate - we do not care enough to risk US casualties for European powers. But if they strike ANYONE else, we will utterly destroy their nation with over 300 high yeild nuclear weapons, and follow it with a continued conventional strike via bombers and cruise missles until there is no trace left of the evil regime and its supporters that brought nukes into the hands of madmen. This includes the oil fields and deliberately targeting of every population center or piece of modern infgrastructure (dams, bridges, etc). And make dman sure the Iranian people realize that the Mullahs have put the US pistol squarely on their temples. Let the Euros deal with what their illicit dealings with Iran, their knee-jerk anti-US policies, and their refusal to help us in any meaningful way, have brought upon them. Let the Iranian people know that we will destroy them if thier Mullahs get the bomb and use it. And start NOW in getting energy independence. Declare a national state of emergency, start building power dams, clean-technology coal fired plants and nuclear power plants across the nation. Buy the designs fromthe Japanese and French and start building NOW. The real bottom line is we need to start immediately in getting us off petroleum and onto nukes. Then we can tell Europe to deal with it, we don't care. |
| Posted by: Oldspook 2006-01-14 12:06 |
| #3 VDH is always good. I don't take it as a given that an Israeli strike is off the table. Isn't this the same old "they'll stir up the terrorist streets" argument? That argument in which the course of action is changed in order to keep radical Muslims calm? This is a fruitless people pleasing ploy. We learned a while ago that radicals will be radicals no matter what. The terrorists will try a dirty bomb on Israel with or without an Israeli strike on Iran. We should always fight for Israel's existence, but we shouldn't be the sacrifical lamb in this conflict by taking on Iran alone. If military action is required, Israel and the US should share the burden. Europe should, too-firstmost-but they are busy washing their brains, hands and history books of their own complicity in Israel's fate. |
| Posted by: jules 2 2006-01-14 11:09 |
| #2 Caught between a rock and a hard place, and the devil and the deep blue sea. Option 5 - decapitation: one JDAM on the Iranian parliment in session? |
| Posted by: Bobby 2006-01-14 09:03 |
| #1 such clarity is a rare treat these days. |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-01-14 07:15 |