EFL - Tea Leaves and PortentsOil ministers of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Monday rejected Iranian proposals to cut the cartelÂ’s oil production, opting instead to sustain current production levels amid continuing uncertainty surrounding TehranÂ’s nuclear programme.
hint?
Opec, which controls 40 per cent of the worldÂ’s oil supplies, is expected to confirm a rollover of its current 28m barrel a day production at MondayÂ’s ministerial meeting in Vienna.
However, diplomatic wrangling over IranÂ’s nuclear ambitions is likely to remain the biggest factor overhanging the oil market this week, after European diplomats on Monday dismissed TehranÂ’s latest attempt to avoid a referral to the United Nations Security Council over its nuclear programme. IranÂ’s proposal 10 days ago for Opec to reduce production by 1m barrels a day - or nearly 4 per cent - pushed oil prices close to $70 a barrel.
temporarily....I'm hearing $100/bbl on commencement of hostilities - dropping back to $60-70 after til everything settles down. We have a supply glut in the US right now - mild winter = low fueloil use and increased shipments have led to a excess above needed refinery capacity right now. Europe is about even
Some diplomats and analysts had interpreted TehranÂ’s call for a cut in production as a political message, aimed at warning the west that Iran would be willing to use oil production as a weapon in the battle over its nuclear programme.
But Opec watchers cautioned that the call for a production cut reflected Iran’s usual hawkish stance of aggressively protecting oil prices. Edmund Daukoru, Opec president and Nigeria’s energy minister, on Monday refused to consider the Iranian proposal to cut output, saying: “That’s a diplomatic question, I’d rather talk about oil and prices.”
Oil futures rose 4 cents on Monday to $67.80 barrel in midday trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Iran is OpecÂ’s second largest oil producer, pumping 4m barrels a day and exporting 2.5m of them. A halt in its output would send international oil prices to more than $100 barrels a day, analysts predict.
note: a short-term increase while hurting on filling up at the pump, goes even further in weaning us from the oilticks. The oilsands et al become more feasible as an alternative with every increase