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India-Pakistan
Perv: The US should be ready for worse times coming
2006-03-07
"They [US] should be ready for worse times coming ... we have substitutes and they know why I went there [China] before his [Bush's] visit,"

KARACHI - President General Pervez Musharraf's observation that Pakistan is strategically situated in an "arc of turmoil" from Afghanistan through Iran to the Middle East is aimed at promoting Islamabad's influence in this region.

At the same time, Pakistan itself is caught in a vicious arc of turmoil that all but ties the hands of the Pakistani leader, for whichever way he turns, he is looking down a double-barreled shotgun: domestic wrath that could bring him down, and alienation of his increasingly disgruntled partner in the "war on terror", the United States.

The American barrel
Despite President George W Bush's flying visit to Pakistan on Saturday, the two sides are aware that their alliance now borders on the realm of living in a fool's paradise.

The US and Pakistan are meant to be major allies, yet this marriage of convenience, forged in the tumultuous days following the September 11, 2001, attacks on the US and the ouster of the Taliban from Afghanistan in 2001, appears headed for the rocks.

When Bush and Musharraf met in Islamabad, they didn't even have a clear-cut agenda to discuss, unlike Bush and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who had met earlier and agreed on a number of important issues, including a civilian nuclear accord.

What Bush did want from Pakistan, according to officials familiar with the meeting who spoke to Asia Times Online, was for Abdul Qadeer Khan to be made available for interrogation.

The US wants to grill Khan, father of Pakistan's nuclear-weapons program and self-confessed proliferator, including with Iran, so that it can build a case against Iran at the United Nations Security Council. The US argues that Tehran is bent on building the bomb. The issue of Iran's nuclear program is currently before the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. It is expected to make a decision on referral to the Security Council soon.

Pakistan has outright denied any direct access to Khan, who is under virtual house arrest in Pakistan, although it has agreed to hand over a scientist, named only as Dr Farooq, and a Pakistani businessmen, named only as Mr Jafery, who were allegedly involved in smuggling nuclear components on the international market.

To the Americans, this is only a half-measure, and until direct access is provided to Khan, they believe they will not be able to draw a full picture of Iran's nuclear program and its possible capacity to develop atomic weapons.

Against this background, the US will definitely not provide Pakistan with any cooperation in the field of civilian nuclear energy, as it did with India. Bush clearly drew a line during his press conference in Islamabad in response to a question on whether his country would deal equally with India and Pakistan. He said Pakistan and India had a different history of nuclear development and requirements.

Between the lines, he clearly outlined the fact that India had developed its nuclear program indigenously and had never been involved in proliferation, while Pakistan had obtained its program clandestinely and then sold on secrets.

Bush raising the issue of democracy in Pakistan and of Musharraf's insistence on wearing a uniform also irked the Pakistani leader, who seized power in a coup in 1999.

Further, in calculated remarks ahead of Bush's visit, Afghanistan lashed out at Pakistan for failing to deal with Taliban bases and their activities on Pakistani territory.

This prompted Musharraf to pay a fruitful strategic visit to China, during which he not only struck a deal for fighter aircraft with an advanced delivery system, but also for nuclear plants. This was a clear message to the United States that Pakistan had options.

"They [US] should be ready for worse times coming ... we have substitutes and they know why I went there [China] before his [Bush's] visit," Musharraf said at a press conference in Islamabad, which was repeatedly broadcast on all private and state-run media.

From the Pakistani perspective, it now sees the US is committed to squeezing Islamabad until it produces on the "war on terror" shopping list, starting with Osama bin Laden, his deputy Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, Taliban leader Mullah Omar and resistance figures Maulana Jalaluddin Haqqani and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Much as the US would like to add Khan to this list, Pakistan sees him as non-negotiable.

The Taliban thorn
The Taliban are geared for their spring offensive in Afghanistan, having regrouped in their thousands and established bases in the country, on the border areas with Pakistan and within Pakistan itself, in North Waziristan. They are complemented by al-Qaeda-linked jihadis who have helped train the Taliban in urban guerrilla warfare.

On Monday, after several days of fighting between Taliban and Pakistani forces in North Waziristan, relative calm returned to the area, and the two sides have begun talks. The major demand of the Taliban is a guarantee of free movement over the porous border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

At present, militants use footpaths in the Shawal region to cross into Afghanistan. This hampers their logistical ability and makes supply lines very difficult to maintain. The Taliban are demanding access from Ghulam Khan Mountain, which would allow vehicles to pass so they could fuel the insurgency at the highest possible level.

If they get this, and with more advanced weapons, they could significantly raise the level of the insurgency.

The US, though, by carrying out various attacks within Pakistan, the latest being a drone attack on suspected militants last month, clearly could never accept such a Pakistani deal with the Taliban.

The domestic barrel
Rallies sponsored by the establishment against the publication of caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed in European countries have turned into ones related to Tehrik-i-Nizam-i-Mustafa, in essence the call for the introduction of sharia (Islamic) law.

Now angry mobs want to destroy all icons of pro-Americanism, including the leaders sitting in Islamabad. Opposition parties have said they will not let Musharraf salute an important parade on March 23.

Musharraf has a stark and unenviable choice. He could go along with the Taliban plan for easy access into Afghanistan. That would mean risking complete alienation from the US, whatever that might entail, but it would take the fire out of the domestic campaign to unseat him.

Alternatively, he could refuse the Taliban, attempt to play ball with the US, and try to defuse the mounting movement against him.

The nucleus of whatever Musharraf decides to do will be North Waziristan. One clear swing toward either of the choices would set off an unprecedented reaction
Posted by:john

#21  PakLand is a failed state that is held up only by massive infusions of capital from the Soddies, Chicoms, and the US. Otherwise they would be a simple backwater sh*thole. We need them for access to Afghanistan, so they are presently a strategic simple backwater sh*thole. The adjectives change, but the noun remains the same.

One way or another, the sanctuaries of the NWFP need to be destroyed by Pak or the US. They are festering jihadi Petri dishes. The other part of the equation is our friends the Soddies. They bring the money to make the madarassas that create the jihadis that destroy the civilization that Jack built.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2006-03-07 22:35  

#20  Ok
Saudis have ICBMs with something on top. Saudis funded the Pakis making the bomb. BCCI was one of the funding tools and BinLaden lost lots of money in BCCI setting off his terror career.....

So Saudi-Pak-Bin triangle makes an interesting nut.

When Iran is taken care off and before cleaning up its children Hezbolla and Syria - I predict this triangle will become solid. (Whatever in hell that means...)

Iran needs to be calculated into the whole game plan with Prev and friends....

Add on that Chavez, drug lords, Central Am gangs and it is so much more complicated....

If your playing a game and it gets that complicated you wipe a bunch of players off the board....
Posted by: 3dc   2006-03-07 22:12  

#19  You all don't have much faith in George. Remember that George is not in the habit of backing the duplicitous, or losers for that matter. If George dumps him, that will be the end of it. But until then, I will give benefit to doubt.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2006-03-07 20:00  

#18  Maybe Muush sees the writing on the wall...

It's been long known that Pakistan has ALWAYS been part of the problem. In my mind, Pakistan has been placed on hold while we deal with more pressing concerns; Iraq, Iran, Syria... If we're working Iran, it would be preferable to have Pakistan under control.

Who can replace Muush? Another "General"? ISI? Anyone from their population of crazy Jihadis?

They have been forced to confront Al-Qaeda, though not nearly as much as we would like. So I recommend some more "constructive criticism" of the sort we saw with Bush's most recent visit. Perhaps if Karzai came to the UN to complain about Pakistan support for Taliban terrorist attacks, might get some action in Wazi-land?
Posted by: Danking70   2006-03-07 19:31  

#17  BTW, everybody has to learn their own lessons - at least until it has become a tenet of the collective "truth" a society subscribes to...

Just cuz A hit the chuckhole and "gets it" doesn't mean B will take the hint and avoid it. People have always been this way. Yeah, it sucks.

But here at the 'Burg, we're all smart, good-looking, slender, rich, and (other than Fred) have a full hear of luxurious hair. Mine's in a ponytail. We can, thus, sneer and heckle. Lol.
Posted by: .com   2006-03-07 19:23  

#16  You're stuck on, uh, the same point there, grom, lol.
Posted by: .com   2006-03-07 19:19  

#15  lol!
Posted by: 2b   2006-03-07 19:19  

#14  Another chapter in USA's quest for Muslem allies.
Posted by: gromgoru   2006-03-07 19:19  

#13  Kind of reminds me of a socket wrench with a crack you can't see in it. Any time you put some tourque on it, it slips and will not do it's job. WakiPak to a tee.
Posted by: SPoD   2006-03-07 19:17  

#12  Lol, NS. How about a broken tool... say a socket with all the teeth rounded off, lol.
Posted by: .com   2006-03-07 19:05  

#11  Think of Pakistan not as an ally, but a tool.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-03-07 19:00  

#10  Comes to a close - with the usual threats and posturing...
Posted by: .com   2006-03-07 18:58  

#9  Another chapter in USA's quest for Muslem allies.
Posted by: gromgoru   2006-03-07 18:55  

#8  Mine/block all the passes, including the donkey paths.

Why bother? Midnight sunrise over Islamabad.
Posted by: Robert Crawford   2006-03-07 18:36  

#7  Whoa...
Posted by: Thavilet Gluger3137   2006-03-07 18:06  

#6  Perv is working both sides of the street like a crackwhore jonesing for another huff. If it weren't for the prospect of Pakistani nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Islamist radicals, his worth would be less than zero.
Posted by: Zenster   2006-03-07 18:03  

#5  I'm amazed at his gall.
Pakistan has gotten BILLIONS in aid since 9/11 and sophisticated military hardware to use against India.
And he has the nerve to say this on TV.

W needs to pay another visit, and plant a second cowboy boot on Perv's behind.


Posted by: john   2006-03-07 17:47  

#4  When all is said and done, Perv really only needs to do one thing to get out of this okay. Hang tight with George.

Perv is already doing a lot of things that were unthinkable not too long ago, advantaging not only him and Pakland, but the US as well. By staying with us, he makes himself stronger.

He might even win big if he plays his cards right and gives whatever support is requested in the US-Iran fight. That is, he could get resource wealthy Iranian Baluchistan given to his country when the shooting is over.

So far, he has partially double-crossed China, and in favor of the US, over the Gwadar port deal. So I am willing to cut him some slack.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2006-03-07 17:47  

#3  The US wants to grill Khan

Bring him back to the interrogation room. I've got the Weber fired up.
Posted by: Jack Bauer   2006-03-07 17:43  

#2  Mine/block all the passes, including the donkey paths. If Musharref wants to put Pakistan on a war footing with the U.S. and its ally Afghanistan, then we must do our bit to accomodate him, but always with the highest efficiency. Perhaps send a couple of snipers up there as well, to welcome those who get through. ....Actually, this seems like really good training for some of the more accomplished Afghani troops...
Posted by: trailing wife   2006-03-07 17:41  

#1  Bush: PakiWakiLand should be ready for worse times coming

Being substantially responsible for the "arc of turmoil" is damned obvious. Pervy got paid 50x what his support in the WoT was worth... and that doesn't factor in the destabilization efforts in Afghanistan and the other aspects of their perfidy. That he doesn't control the ISI simply means that he's not a worthy partner in the WoT. Sucks, but...

US/Inda vs China/PakiWaki huh? Izzat where he really wants to go?

Okay.
Posted by: .com   2006-03-07 17:24  

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