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| Caribbean-Latin America |
| Suddenly, Mexico Changed |
| 2006-04-04 |
| Swaddled in a pale green blanket, 3-day-old Luis Ernesto Gómez dozed away in his mother's arms, unaware that his birth was part of the end of an era. "My father came from a family of 11 children. I came from a family of four children," said Luis' mother, MarÃa Elena Cervantes. "Me, I'm having two. That's it." Therein lies a major historic shift: Mexico, a predominantly Roman Catholic country where huge families were once the norm, is sending the stork packing after just two children. It's a development that could affect U.S. immigration as Mexico's population growth slows to a crawl and the trend toward smaller families leads to more disposable income. After decades of decline, the national fertility rate dropped to a milestone 2.1 children per woman last year, according to Mexico's National Population Council. That puts Mexico's rate about even with the United States (2.08), lower than most Latin American countries, and it means more couples are using birth control and straying from Catholic teachings. Census experts refer to 2.1 children as the "natural replacement rate," meaning Mexico is just barely replacing the generations who will die in coming years. Hispanic immigrants in the United States are now reproducing at a faster rate, 2.8 children per woman, than Mexicans in Mexico. Sociologists say that is because immigrants tend to be less educated and come from poorer, rural areas of Mexico. "Here in Mexico, we have seen a substantial decline in fertility rates, and it's fundamentally due to the increasing education level of women and their participation in economic life," said Carlos Welti, a population expert at the National Autonomous University of Mexico... Whoa. Bolt out of the blue. In past, economists have noted that (varying between countries), at a particular point, a plateau, in national economic development, birth rate suddenly plummets to 2.1 per family. This begins an extended period of economic prosperity and political stability. |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #3 ARMYGUY: Nope, it makes all the difference in the world. First of all, most of the pressure is coming from southern Mexico, in the PPP (Plan Puebla Panama) areas, where peasants are being pushed north to make room for the massive redevelopment of the region. The peasants are told to head to the just-south-of-the-border businesses, the maquildoras, as cheap labor to stimulate the Mexican economy and create lots of industry; or, better yet, continue over the border to the US. When the PPP gets in full swing, trying to turn southern Mexico into the hemisphere's trading center, there is going to be a major demographic shift south to support its construction and operations. At that point, much of the illegal flow north will dry up. From that point, the demographic flows in Mexico will mostly be internal, decentralizing the District Federal and enlarging other cities and building new ones. Right now, however, Mexico could be at a critical phase. If the US can stop the immigration with a wall, Mexico might collapse in a bloody civil war, or be taken over by a leftist similar to, and friendly with, Chavez and his cabal of other leftist South American leaders. But if their birthrate remains low, within 20 years, their country will become progressively more stable and successful. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2006-04-04 12:29 |
| #2 This isn't new. Mexico's fertility rate was 2.4 in 2000. Population growth isn't actually bad for national prosperity. The US population went from 35m during the Civil War to about 120m by the turn of the 20th century, roughly similar to Mexico's population growth from 1945 to 2000. The US went from mainly agrarian power to major industrial power in that time frame. Mexico went nowhere. It still boils down to good government - in America, citizens have many outlets for their energy and creativity, whereas in Mexico, they have few. This is why Mexicans keep streaming across the border, and generally do much better here than they do in Mexico. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2006-04-04 12:15 |
| #1 Day late an' a dollar short!!!!!!! |
| Posted by: ARMYGUY 2006-04-04 10:20 |