The U.S. Central Command is preparing contingency plans for the prospect of an American-led war against Iran.
Officials stressed that Centcom has not received orders to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. But they said the command is conducting exhaustive research as part of a process which Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld called 'not unusual' and discussed at length yesterday at the Pentagon.
Officials said Centcom's war planning was based on a thorough study of Iranian capabilities, threats, intentions and Teheran's presumed assessments of U.S. military power. They said U.S. military planners would base contingency drafts on the need to surprise Iran in any confrontation.
"Clearly this country, for the better part of 15 years, has had various contingency plans," Rumsfeld, who would not discuss planning on Iran, said. "That's what this department does is plan for various contingencies. And it's not unusual, and one would be critical of the department were they not to have done so."
"I remain persuaded that we would be able to do anything that our nation asks us to do," Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt, director of strategic policy and planning at Centcom, said. "And any nation that somehow miscalculates in that regard is making a tremendous mistake."
Kimmitt told Arab journalists in a briefing in London that the United States remains committed to resolving the crisis with Iran through diplomacy. But he said Centcom was studying a range of scenarios, including the prospect of an Iranian-sponsored Islamic insurgency campaign in wake of a U.S. military confrontation with Teheran.
"This entire issue of Iran has to be focused not simply on the specific issues within Iran," Kimmitt said on April 10. "But any time we review a situation whether it is diplomatic, economic or military, we always take into account the fact that the problem cannot be seen in isolation. But it does have ripple effects throughout the area."
In a Pentagon briefing on Tuesday, Rumsfeld and Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff outlined the war planning process. They said a U.S. regional military command, such as Centcom, routinely reviews threat scenarios and submits recommendations to the Pentagon.
"Then they take one of them in sequence, and they'll say, 'Here are the assumptions that we're going to operate on. How do you feel about that?'" Rumsfeld said. "Then Pete [Pace] and I and others and the chiefs will talk about the assumptions and we'll get that right. Then they'll go back out and they'll start to develop a plan based on those assumptions for that particular niche. Then we work through that — that may take six months — back and forth, back and forth. Then they'll take another piece of their responsibility and do the same thing."
Pace traced the numerous discussions that preceded the U.S.-led war in Iraq in 2003. He said that in late 2001 Rumsfeld — "once it became apparent that we may have to take military action" — asked then-Central Command chief Gen. Tommy Franks to draft war plans against Iraq.
"Over the next two years, 50 or 60 times, Tom Franks either came to Washington or by video teleconference, sat down with the secretary of defense, sat down with the Joint Chiefs and went over what he was thinking, how he was planning," Pace said "...What happened was, in a very open roundtable discussion, questions about what might go right, what might go wrong, what would you need, how would you handle it, and that happened with the Joint Chiefs and it happened with the secretary."
Pace said that Franks, who since retirement has opposed the U.S. military presence in Iraq, met the Joint Chiefs before President George Bush relayed the final order for war against Iraq. The chairman said the Joint Chiefs determined that Centcom's plan was solid and its resource requirements would be fulfilled.
"We had then and have now every opportunity to speak our minds, and if we do not, shame on us because the opportunity is there," Pace said. "It is elicited from us. You know, we're expected to. And the plan that was executed was developed by military officers, presented by military officers, questioned by civilians as they should, revamped by military officers, and blessed by the senior military leadership."
Officials said Central Command was preparing to restructure and significantly reduce the U.S. military presence as part of the war against Al Qaida in the region. They said more than 200,000 American soldiers — supported by 50,000 allied troops — serve in Centcom's area of command, which extends from Egypt in the west to Kirgyzstan in the east. Since January, about 27,000 U.S. soldiers have left Iraq.
"After Iraq and Afghanistan are stabilized Washington will maintain sufficient forces in the region to respond, to deter, and to prevent," Kimmitt said. "But it will be a fraction of what we have today because the U.S. does not to give the impression that we are there permanently and give weight to the Al Qaida arguments that say that the only reason the Americans are there is to permanently occupy."
Kimmitt said Al Qaida has formed a small presence in Iran and could seek to establish training bases in the country. He called on Teheran to arrest these operatives.
"It is not only in failed states that Al Qaida can find safe havens," Kimmitt said. "It is also in advanced nations as well."
Kimmitt said the United States has sought talks with Iran regarding the future of Iraq. He said the talks — suspended until the formation of a government in Baghdad — would be restricted to security issues, particularly Iranian intervention in Iraq.
"The specific brief of the talks is to discuss with Iran some of the security concerns the two countries have with regards to Iraq," Kimmitt said. "We are talking about narrow focus talks with Iran which is a geographical neighbour and there are some concerns about its behavior in Iraq."
During the briefing, Kimmitt maintained that the prospect of a civil war in Iraq remained "very low." He said the Iraqi military, unlike that in Lebanon or Yugoslavia, has remained stable despite rising sectarian tension.
"Where there has been sectarian violence you have not seen the Iraqi security forces break down and the military break down and say 'I am going to my people Ramadi or Faluja or Basra, Suleimeniya," Kimmitt said. "At this point I still believe the chances for full-scale civil war to be low, but I also believe that we must stay vigilant every day to ensure that doesn't happen." |
