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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Taiwan may end up with Pyrrhic diplomatic victory |
| 2006-05-14 |
| TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian may have pulled off a diplomatic victory over China during his just concluded overseas trip, but it also laid bare the new realities of the island's once-warm relationship with Washington. While Chen played down U.S. refusal to let his plane refuel in New York, ties have frayed since the early days of George W. Bush's presidency when Chen was allowed to transit in the U.S. financial capital in 2001 and 2003 and the U.S. leader pledged to do whatever it takes to help Taiwan defend itself. "It'll be extremely challenging for relations between Taipei and Washington to improve" during the remaining two years of Chen's presidency, said Lin Chong-Pin, president of the Foundation on International and Cross-Strait Studies think-tank. However, the U.S. snub appeared to be a blessing in disguise when Chen made surprise transit stopovers in Libya and Indonesia, which recognize Beijing but not Taipei. The stops riled China, which claims Taiwan as its own and has tried to push it into isolation, and may help to bolster support for Chen, whose popularity rating hit new lows due to a string of corruption scandals. It was also a boon for his Democratic Progressive Party, which is trying to find a candidate capable of defeating the popular Nationalist front-runner Ma Ying-jeou in the 2008 presidential elections. But the victory may be Pyrrhic, analysts said, if relations with Taiwan's main arms supplier and trading partner were strained and Washington stepped up pressure to thwart his independence dreams. "Taiwan is the loser in terms of relations with the United States. But Taiwan may be able to make up for some of the losses if the breakthroughs with Libya and Indonesia are for real," said Liu Bih-rong, a political scientist at Soochow University. In an apparent slight, the United States offered to let Chen transit in remote Alaska or Hawaii this month instead of New York while on his way home from Latin America. Chen rejected the offer and was hailed a hero by some for standing up to Washington. While Chen put on a brave face and tried to assure the public that the row with the United States would not impact bilateral relations, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick appeared to harden parameters for ties. KEEP HITTING WALL Zoellick told a U.S. congressional hearing last week that Taiwan will "keep hitting into a wall" if it continues to test the "one China" policy under which Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. Zoellick also warned that Taiwan independence meant war with China risking the lives of American soldiers as he defended the administration against criticism by U.S. lawmakers for treating Chen is a "disgraceful" way. "Washington's displeasure has been mainly targeted at Chen Shui-bian," said Lin, a one-time deputy defense minister and formerly one of Taiwan's top China policy makers. But Taipei-Washington military and trade ties will remain unchanged due to Taiwan's geopolitical importance, analysts said. Some saw the candid warning from Zoellick as a pre-emptive attempt to stop Chen from crossing China's red line -- formalizing Taiwan's de facto independence when amending the constitution in the run-up to the 2008 elections. "The United States is worried Taiwan will move toward independence when it amends its constitution," said Liu, the political scientist. China has vowed to attack if self-ruled democratic Taiwan, which still styles itself as the Republic of China, formally declared statehood. The two split in 1949 amid a civil war. Lie speculated that the gaffe-plagued White House appearance of Chinese President Hu Jintao last month may have prompted the United States to deny President Chen a stop in New York to avoid further hurting U.S.-China ties. Chen's woes began, analysts say, when he ignored U.S. warnings and held a landmark referendum alongside presidential elections in 2004. China's parliament passed the Anti-Secession Law the next year mandating armed conflict in one of Asia's most dangerous flashpoints. Ignoring U.S. admonitions again, Chen scrapped a dormant but symbolic body and guidelines on eventual unification with China in February in what Lin, the former official, described as "the last straw that broke the camel's back." |
| Posted by:ryuge |
| #2 Taiwan and the USDOD both know or believe, as I do, that however PC China will NOT stop at taking over countries. The game here is ultimately the subsitution of weaker nations in the place of the stronger or superior, i.e. CHINA IN PLACE OF AMERICA. Taiwan, etal. in reality have little or nothing to lose in LT by publicly proclaiming its independence. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2006-05-14 22:24 |
| #1 Arghh! A double posting! I must be up too late. |
| Posted by: ryuge 2006-05-14 00:49 |