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Afghanistan
Afghan militant toll nears 200
2006-05-20
A “very important” Taliban commander was captured during two days of fierce fighting in southern Afghanistan that has left nearly 200 rebels dead, officials said Friday. The identity of the man caught in Kandahar province could not be released on security grounds, provincial governor Assadullah Khalid said, after reports he was Mullah Dadullah, credited as one of the masterminds of the Taliban insurgency launched nearly five years ago.
I suspect it wasn't him.
The man was badly wounded in a battle in KandaharÂ’s Panjwayi fought by Taliban rebels who had come from across Afghanistan, Khalid told reporters. Around 100 were killed, he said, upping a previous figure of 18.
If they came from across Afghanistan, that implies there aren't that many of them in one place. That bit has the odor of rare, aged flounder to it. I'd guess rather that they came swarming across the Pak border, waving AK's and hollering "Allahu Akbar"!
The US-led coalition helping to fight Taliban rebels announced meanwhile that 60 “enemy” were killed in a separate battle on Wednesday in neighbouring Helmand province. Afghan officials had said about 40 were killed. The new tolls took past 190 the number of insurgents killed in two days of clashes between security forces and Taliban rebels in some of the heaviest fighting since the regime was toppled in 2001 by a US-led invasion. More than 25 Afghan security forces and civilians were also killed in the violence, which included two suicide blasts Thursday that counted a US citizen and an Afghan national among their victims.
Yesterday the "experts" were going on about how precarious the situation in Afghanistan's become due to the Taliban "resurgence." Mullah Dadullah's been replaced by Haqqani, the loser at Shah-i-Kot, so Karzai is in large trouble and Mullah Omar will be warming the Seat of All Power™ by Christmas.

The figures just don't show it. The number of attacks are up, reflecting the mere availability of cannon fodder and supplies, not a resurgence. The corpse counts say that the Talibs are still fielding warriors, and 1:8 ratios say they aren't even very good ones. Warriors, as I've mentioned a time or two, will lose to disciplined, well-led soldiers 100.00 percent of the time. Individual warriors will beat the crap out of individual soldiers in bar fights most of the time, but discipline and teamwork counter personal bravery and toughness. They've been doing that since the invention of the hoplite, at least. The NATO troops, particularly the Dutchies, aren't Americans, but they're still better than anything the Taliban can field. And the Afghan troops are definitely coming up to snuff; the turbans are directing their attacks against the police, not the army. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe, when Satan Claus brings Mullah Omar his presents this year it'll be in Quetta.
Posted by:Fred

#16  And yes, it will shift forms and places, including into latin america and our southern border in a serious way.
Posted by: lotp   2006-05-20 13:53  

#15  This war will take 20 years to win. Those of us who see the need TO win had better be willing to last it out.
Posted by: lotp   2006-05-20 13:52  

#14  These are NVA battalion-sized units. I'm impressed. Iraqi guerrillas can't mount attacks of this size.

They infiltrated from just over the Pak border. I'd be much more impressed if the attack was further north. Of course the insurgents in Iraq can't operate as openly in Syria and Iran as the Taliban can in Pakland. If they could, or if the Saudis providing sanctuary, we'd be seeing bigger attacks in Iraq.

As 49pan points out, the war just drags on until we can destroy the enemy center of gravity in Pakistan. The West will tire. Eye-rolling, spittle spewing fanatics will just keep on keeping on.
Posted by: 11A5S   2006-05-20 13:42  

#13  eniac: It's accommodating of them to bunch up. The figures reported over the last few days show this to be a major mistake, but that's what happens when experience is getting bumped off - harsh lessons must be relearned.

We don't know that they're bunching up. But they are massing. And it's not a mistake - it's a necessity if they want to kill large numbers of anti-Taliban personnel. Sending ten guys against a fortified position isn't going to do much. Why do they need so many men? It's simple math - 400 guns will usually win out over 20 guns. The trick is to get out of dodge before coalition air support arrives. If they're smart, they'll learn to time these attacks with a stopwatch. If it hasn't succeeded by a set time, they break it off and skedaddle. The Taliban have two big disadvantages compared to the NVA, though - the lack of triple canopy jungle (to hide their retreat) and smart bombs.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-05-20 12:27  

#12  3dc quote: The Associated Press reports an "estimated 300-400 militants with assault rifles and machine guns attacked a police and government headquarters" in Musa Qala.

These are NVA battalion-sized units. I'm impressed. Iraqi guerrillas can't mount attacks of this size.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-05-20 12:11  

#11  Another shining example that Afghanistan is not the center of gravity to the AQ/Taliban. As they move their training and recruiting base out deeper into PAK. I suspect it wont be long before the only news of fighting is raids from cross border, if we are not already there. For us to end this war and not end up chasing them from country to country we must deal with Iran and the Soddi's. We must take the fight to flag pole and stop wrestling with fire bases.
Posted by: 49 Pan   2006-05-20 11:38  

#10  LOL - youse guys!
Posted by: Frank G   2006-05-20 10:35  

#9  Eight to one kill ratio:

Somedays it just doesn't pay to be a misogynistic asshole.
Posted by: badanov   2006-05-20 10:23  

#8  Heh.

And don't forget Inshallaburton, an ISI spinoff.

Of course MullaHitler would be taken as a compliment.
Posted by: random styling   2006-05-20 07:47  

#7  Afghan militant toll nears 200

This is a significant milestone in the Afghan War. Tonight al-Jezeera's Jim al-Ehrer Report will scroll pictures of the 200 dead jihidis with their names and home villages at the end of his broadcast in honor of these fallen heros.

Analysts question how long a country of Afghanistan's size can sustain losses fo this magnitude. Soon Gold Crescent Mothers will be protesting at Friday prayer meetings at Kabul's main mosque. Afghan will is sure to collapse soon as more and more Afghans turn on Mullah "Chimpy Cyclops" Omar.
Posted by: Nimble Spemble   2006-05-20 07:42  

#6  Warrior doees n ot automatically imply poor tactics and indiscipline: the Mongols had good tactics and strong siscipline.

On the opposite sense you have armies where discipline is strong but everything goes top down making them inflexible and unable to adapt to reality on the ground and to seize opportunities (Red Army), units are unable to coordinate (Arab armies, Google for the clsssic "Why Arabs lose wars"). See also what happenned to the British in Issandwhana (where a quertermaster refused tos supply ammo because: "it belonged to another unit") as an example of soldier culture gone nuts

Now the real deadly combination is when you get a warrior impetus and initiative with the dedication to training and discipline of the soldier.
Posted by: JFM   2006-05-20 03:56  

#5  It's accommodating of them to bunch up. The figures reported over the last few days show this to be a major mistake, but that's what happens when experience is getting bumped off - harsh lessons must be relearned.
Posted by: eniac   2006-05-20 03:42  

#4  A map with current NATO regional assignments at this link
(too slow to put inline)
Posted by: 3dc   2006-05-20 01:05  

#3  Bill Roggio is reporting here that:
The fighting in Musa Qala in Helmand province is a bonafide major Taliban attack. The Associated Press reports an "estimated 300-400 militants with assault rifles and machine guns attacked a police and government headquarters" in Musa Qala.
Posted by: 3dc   2006-05-20 01:01  

#2  Add to that, one reason why there are more firefights is that the NATO forces (including ours) are taking the fight to the Taliban. The press sees a fight and thinks, 'Taliban resurgence', when what really happened is 'NATO intel, insertion, patrol, and whack the Taliban'. Even the Afghan army and police are getting better at this, and they're doing the same thing.

We'll take 8:1 ratios (20:1 is better). At some point potential Taliban recruits are going to start wondering if it isn't better to study auto mechanics.
Posted by: Steve White   2006-05-20 00:59  

#1   One other factor that experts seem completely oblivious to is that you can't separate developments between Afghanistan and Pakistan, particularly with much of the border existing only as a legal fiction. Attacks are up in Afghanistan largely because the assembled Bad Guys (Haqqani, Mullah Omar, Tahir Yuldashev, et al.) in Waziristan and the rest of the NWFP and FATA have finally gotten a clue and started actively seizing territory from the Pakistani government. That gives them a secure place to recruit, train, regroup, and formulate new attacks as they go about beating their lives and plotting world domination, hence the uptick in cannon fodder.
Posted by: Dan Darling   2006-05-20 00:12  

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