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Britain
Iranian nuclear weapons 'inevitable'
2006-05-25
It is all but impossible to stop Iran developing nuclear weapons, a leading British think-tank said yesterday, as the world's powers struggled to find a common strategy to face the threat. Senior officials from the US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China closeted themselves at a secret location in London to negotiate a package of "incentives" for Iran to halt its nuclear programme.

But the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) suggested that neither diplomacy nor military action to destroy the nuclear facilities was likely to succeed. "There is a consensus emerging that an Iranian nuclear capability is both inevitable, and certainly bad," said the IISS director, John Chipman, presenting an assessment of the international military balance.
"Therefore, we should do nothing about it."
He said America's Arab allies in the Gulf feel "the only thing worse than a nuclear-armed Iran is a US military strike against the country, especially if it were still left with a nuclear option". Bombing Iran might provoke retaliation against coalition forces in Iraq, attacks by Hizbollah on Israel and attempts to choke the flow of oil through the Gulf.
"Therefore, we should do nothing about it."
Margaret Beckett, the Foreign Secretary, said officials were discussing incentives designed to persuade Iran to halt enrichment. This is believed to include the offer of a European-built light water nuclear power reactor.
Because Europe has a long history of successful appeasement.
The US has pushed for economic and political sanctions to be included among the punishments. The IISS said the package is unlikely to sway Iran as it rejected a similar deal last autumn. Teheran has repeatedly ruled out any deal that stops it from enriching uranium.
Didn't the IISS say that the western powers could never hope to defeat Iraq, like, twice?
Posted by:Anonymoose

#18  International Institute of Handwringers and Future Buggery Victims
Posted by: Frank G   2006-05-25 20:29  

#17  Any organization that includes International in its name is automatically suspect of being agenda driven. These guys sound driven to get another grant.
Posted by: RWV   2006-05-25 19:57  

#16  Not sure this "think tank" isn't a stinky tank.

Of course, Russia and China being locked into the room makes the conclusion self serving, doesn't it?

The fact is that once they master the capability, the task of defusing Iran becomes extremely complex.
Posted by: Captain America   2006-05-25 19:18  

#15  It sure looks like they want nukes, so I guess we ought to just give them to them. 3-2-1 BOOM
Posted by: Glenmore   2006-05-25 18:54  

#14  NATO, RIP.
Posted by: Perfesser   2006-05-25 17:36  

#13  Didn't Israel just elect the wimpy team to lead them ? We need some kind of clash to start things up. A Gulf of Tonkin move.
Posted by: wxjames   2006-05-25 10:15  

#12  Don't bet on it. Unless Israel is gonna nuke Tehran, Israel is more vulnerable to attack than is Iran.
Posted by: ed   2006-05-25 09:08  

#11  Israel will not allow it to happen. Period. So much for 'inevitability'. If the US is not able to solve the problem, just watch and wait for the Israeli 'solution'.
Posted by: mcsegeek1   2006-05-25 09:05  

#10  I agree it is inevitable. But then I think the Iranians already have enough HEU for several bombs. They are known to have bought, since 1997, enough centrifuges for 2 bombs per year.

The default posture of democracies is to do as little as possible. As long as the Iranians provide the thinnest veneer of deniability, nothing will happen. Even with Iranian admission, I believe nothing can happen in this political climate.

The interesting period will come in 15-20 years when the mullahs think they have enough bombs to destroy western civ. But by then, dozens of states will be nuclear armed because they will have figured out there is little downside of arming themselves with nukes, and a lot of downside not having them when your next door neighbor is so armed. It's gonna be a real unstable world. Globalization will be history. Closed borders and regional blocks will be the norm.
Posted by: ed   2006-05-25 08:55  

#9  Iranian nuclear weapons 'inevitable'

So is the American responce, once we have definitive proof we will send in the missles. First to destroy their nuke capability and second to destroy their military.

We are so gunshy since the Iraq nuke fiasco we will probably wait another year until we can capture one of their weapons or show undisputed proof. Cutting it too close for me.
Posted by: 49 Pan   2006-05-25 08:40  

#8   You can't just attack the U.S. that triggers a response from NATO.

Perhaps I've become cynical, but I no longer trust that NATO would actually choose to respond to an attack on the US -- of any sort -- with much beyond diplomatic posturing. Look at the reluctance to go into Afghanistan, and the even greater reluctance to continue the effort there. With individual exceptions, for the most part it's been all arm-twisting and teeth-pulling, and all sorts of "Evil America" dramatics.

Individual countries, yes. But not NATO. Not so long as France is stuck in its self-created morass, Angela Merkel can't seem to shift Germany out of self-destruct mode, and both want the rest of the EU to swallow the costs of their fiscal recoveries.
Posted by: trailing wife   2006-05-25 08:39  

#7  "But who do we surrender to?"

I think the answer would be among the 1500+ aimpoints that Gen McInerney has spoken of recently.
Posted by: Ebberemp Phinens2648   2006-05-25 07:26  

#6  But who do we surrender to? What do they want? How can we give it to them? Inquiring minds want to know.
Posted by: Bobby   2006-05-25 07:11  

#5  All is lost! We'd better all convert, then.
Posted by: anonymous5089   2006-05-25 06:42  

#4  If we let these A-holes make themselves a bomb, we might as well just give everyone a free pass. Venezuela, Sudan, Brazil, everyone will just thumb their nose at the U.S. and U.N. and go balls-out for their own nukes.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2006-05-25 01:16  

#3  You can't just attack the U.S. that triggers a response from NATO. And I would tend to disagree with these guys about it being inevitable. If we bomb the dogshit out of Irans nuclear facilities(even the ones with civilians around them) then they would be set back for 10 years. Ten years is a long time.
Posted by: Snater Wharong3609   2006-05-25 01:14  

#2  STRATEGYPAGE also has a good article on Iran's testing of its SHAHAB-3 missle. The article strongly hints that Iran may had already gotten working nuke warhead designs from CHINA and RUSSIA - iff true, goes to show that AMERICA IS NOT JUST DEALING WID INDIVIDUAL ROGUE NATIONS BUT WITH A POTENTIAL COLLUSORY GROUP OF DEDICATED, ANTI-AMER, HOSTILE NATIONS ENGAGED IN GLOBAL/INTERNATIONAL CONSPIRACY-VENTURES AGAINST THE USA-WEST. Regional-Global Caliphate = China taking over Taiwan-East Asia = de facto decline in American geopol power and influence > ENEMY ARMIES WILL INEVITABLY ATTACK AND INVADE AMERICA ITSELF, e.g. "George Washington Prophecy", etal.
FTLG, STAY ARMED!
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2006-05-25 00:59  

#1  See DRUDGEREPORT.com and WND.com for numerous current articles on Iran crisis, espec WND.com article where Israeli official claims Iran will reach "point-of-return" in three months.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2006-05-25 00:22  

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