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| Iraq |
| Rebels offer to end attacks on Americans for 2-year pullout timetable |
| 2006-06-29 |
| Eleven Sunni insurgent groups working through mediators have offered to immediately stop attacks on American-led forces in Iraq if the Shiite-led government and Washington set a two-year timetable for withdrawing all coalition forces from the country, insurgents and government officials told the Associated Press on Wednesday. Eight of the eleven insurgent groups that have approached Prime Minister Nuri Maliki's government have banded together under the umbrella of the 1920 Revolution Brigade. All 11, however, have issued identical demands, said the insurgent representatives and government officials. They spoke on condition of anomymity because of the sensitivity of the information and for fear of retribution. The groups do not include the powerful Islamic Army in Iraq, Muhammad Army and the Mujahedeen Shura Council, an umbrella for eight militant groups including Al Qaeda in Iraq. Most of the 11 groups operate north and northeast of Baghdad in increasingly violent Salahuddin and Diyala provinces. Abu Mussab Zarqawi, the Al Qaeda leader, was killed in a US air strike in Diyala province earlier this month. The total number of insurgents is not known, nor is it known how many men belong to each group. But there are believed to be about two dozen organisations, meaning the 11 that are in contact with the government represent nearly half of the known groups. A key Sunni politician, however, predicted a big majority of insurgents could be enticed to the negotiation table. “If the reconciliation initiative is implemented properly, 70 per cent of the insurgent groups will respond positively,” said Naseer Ani, an official with the largest Sunni political group, the Iraqi Islamic Party of Vice President Tariq Hashimi. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #16 Gotta figure some percentage of these asshats are seeing which way the wind is blowing...and it ain't up their skirts. As that percentage is peeled off it just becomes tougher for the other guys and the process will continue. Whether or not the sane folks dealing with these scum can control them in the medium to long term is anyone's guess. Certainly worth a shot though. |
| Posted by: remoteman 2006-06-29 18:12 |
| #15 One can hope, Mike, one can hope. I pray it shakes out that way (especially the ratting out others part). Not holdin' my breath though, cause these nutters are usually jihadis first, last and in between...not prone to common sense. |
| Posted by: BA 2006-06-29 13:34 |
| #14 Perhaps the Iraqi government should talk to them, then follow them home, afterward? |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2006-06-29 13:33 |
| #13 BA: Your concerns are valid. In response, I would say that since there are multiple insurgent factions, there are multiple negotiating partners; some sane, some not. Al-Makili will be looking to cut a deal with the sane ones, and only the sane ones. As they begin to come in from the cold, the insurgency loses strength and the holdouts will be incentivized to start joining them, not least by the fact that the ones who do take the deal will start burning them. |
| Posted by: Mike 2006-06-29 12:54 |
| #12 I don't know, Mike. I mean, the article notes that several other groups are NOT agreeing to talks, and we're also talking about insane nutters across the table who have NO qualms about agreeing to something then completely backstabbing you when the time's right. Much like the Israelis having NO sane negotiation partners for the Paleos. Heck, even in the Cold War, we had MAD. That doesn't apply here, as they want to die for Allan. Let's just help 'em get there, in my book. |
| Posted by: BA 2006-06-29 11:55 |
| #11 I still smell hudna. |
| Posted by: anonymous2u 2006-06-29 10:51 |
| #10 True Mike. This is the start of negotiations. A good sign they are willing to talk now that they have had their asses handed to them enough. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2006-06-29 09:27 |
| #9 What if we were to pull back "over the horizon", like Murtha wants, to someplace like, oh, Damascus. Then come back in 5-6 months after the asshats have re-clustered into kill zones... |
| Posted by: flyover 2006-06-29 09:20 |
| #8 interesting Mike. Thanks. |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-06-29 09:18 |
| #7 This is a negotiation dance. It's haggling, which is partly an Arab cultural trope, and partially what happens in any negotiated settlement. The Sunni bad guys wouldn't be negotiating if they thought they had a snowball's chance in hell of winning militarily. So here's how the dance will likely work out: Opening bid: al-Makili offers amnesty to anyone who hasn't killed anyone. Round two: where we are today; Sunni bad guys counter with an offer to surrender if the US sets a withdrawal date. Round three: in a day or two, al-Makili comes back with an offer of expanded amnesty for the cannon fodder, and no timetable Round four: bad guys drop their demand for a timetable, but insist that the Americans make a nonspecific pledge to withdraw as the fighting subsides (which is what we've intended all along!) and ask for something a little better in the amnesty department (roughly the same deal Robert E. Lee got at Appomattox, which is where civil wars traditionally end) Round five: al-Makili says he'll take it if the Sunni agree to burn their al-Qaida connections and help in the roundup. Round six: Sunnis say, "It's a deal, Howie!" Foreign baddies start meeting their 72 virgins. |
| Posted by: Mike 2006-06-29 07:18 |
| #6 AP, I stand corrected. |
| Posted by: twobyfour 2006-06-29 04:38 |
| #5 The Raddies and aligned definitely want a Dem POTUS for 2008, i.e. agandonment = fall of Saigon and Jimmy Carter. Sorry, Sunnis, Dubya isn't leaving - USA didn't leave post-WW2 Berlin and Tokyo and t'aint leaving Baghdad or any other city. Miniseries PETER THE GREAT > Petyor = "You will dragged kicking and screaming iff need be, into the modern world"! |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2006-06-29 04:14 |
| #4 It was General McAuliffe that said "Nuts" to the German demand to surrender at Bastogne, not Patton. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2006-06-29 02:04 |
| #3 I would present "rebels" with very well recognized international sign and then quote Patton: "Nuts". |
| Posted by: twobyfour 2006-06-29 01:48 |
| #2 When I first read the headline I thought it was referring to the Donks. I see now it was only talking about terrorists who are killing Americans with weapons and not those US citizens who indirectly kill Americans by aiding and abetting the enemy. |
| Posted by: anymouse 2006-06-29 01:07 |
| #1 Don't. They'd claim we capitulated and that they drove us out. |
| Posted by: grb 2006-06-29 01:04 |