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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| A Nuclear Japan? |
| 2006-07-16 |
| Pyongyang's protectors are reviving Tokyo's military power. Wall Street Journal house editorial No one knows how long it would take Japan to go nuclear, though estimates are days or weeks.* But for 60 years Japan has refrained from becoming a nuclear power and remained militarily quiescent. That particular sun may be rising again, however, thanks to the support by China and South Korea for the military threats of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il. This is the meaning of a remarkable, but underreported, comment last week that Japan might want to knock out North Korea's missile bases with a pre-emptive military strike. "If we accept that there is no other option to prevent an attack . . . there is the view that attacking the launch base of the guided missiles is within the constitutional right of self-defense," said Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe. "We need to deepen discussion." The head of Japan's Defense Agency made a similar observation. Article 9 of Japan's 1946 Constitution bars military force in settling international disputes and prohibits Japan from maintaining a military for the purpose of warfare. Even so, Japan has 243,000 men under arms and one of the world's most technologically capable militaries. Only the U.S., Russia and China spend more on defense. The discussion Mr. Abe refers to has already begun--and in part he is only reflecting public opinion. North Korea's first Taepodong missile test, in 1998, shocked many Japanese and elevated national security as a political issue, leading to the election of hawkish Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi in 2001. Virtually every poll since North Korean test also shows overwhelming public anxiety about North Korea and support for a strong response. . . . *- Wikipedia on Japan's M-5 solid-fuelled booster: "There are reports that the M-5 design was modeled after the LG-118A Peacekeeper ICBM which has similar dimensions and payload, and is also a three-stage solid fuel rocket. The M-5 design could certainly be weaponised quickly." |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #13 lotp: Maybe. Or maybe it's the result of Japan looking at the Chinese demographic bomb of huge numbers of young adult and adolescent males who will never find Chinese wives. And of Chinese swordrattling of the sort that countries with excess males tend to do. This is a moronic fantasy dreamed up by people who think of China as a mirror image of the West. Please don't parrot it. China doesn't have a social security system. Parents rely on their kids for retirement - a tradition that is mirrored in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, all countries with large ethnic Chinese populations. Back in the days of large families, this used to mean two parents would be shuttled among five or six siblings. The one-child policy and the disproportionate gender ratio simply means that in some cases a single unmarried son will have to support two parents. He doesn't get to back away from his responsibilities simply because he can't get married. In China, as in some other East Asian countries, failure to support one's parents financially can result in fines and the garnishing of one's wages. This applies to sons and daughters alike. Note also that in China, as in the West, you don't have to buy the cow in order to get the milk - you can rent it. Sometimes, you even get the milk for free - via non-committal relationships with single women as well as adulterous affairs - women marry certain men for money, and have affairs outside their marriages for love. In fact, the above practices are a long-established tradition in Chinese history - which has always had shortages of marriageable women. Widows were considered bad luck and consequently out of the marriage market. Eligible women were sold into marriage, with bride prices (paid to the bride's parents) equivalent to several years of salary. Prior to the 20th century, polygamy was legal - Chinese law permitted men to marry as many women as they could afford. Today, polygamy is illegal, but Chinese men still marry multiple women off-the-books. Only one wife is legal, but these men maintain husband-and-wife relationships openly with their common-law second, third, et al wives and have children with their last names attached. Whatever a Chinese youth does to get his rocks off - and there are strip joints, massage parlors and prostitutes galore in today's China (talk to the concierge at any hotel) for those who want zero commitment - he is still required, by law, by upbringing and by tradition to support his parents. He can't do that if he's dead. And that is why any Chinese war won't be able to rely on a horde of eager conscripts. The fact is that the Chinese man is not a rugged individualist. He is responsible to his ancestors for propagating the family line. Again, he can't do that if he's dead. The Chinese Civil War was a really, really major exception because the Communists promised the tenant farmers that they would kill their landlords and distribute their lands. During the Korean War, the majority of the captured Communist Chinese POW's chose to go to Taiwan. The fact of the matter is that there are intensely ideological Chinese who think that China should wreak havoc upon countries they perceive as China's enemies. But most of them think someone else should do the fighting. |
| Posted by: Zhang Fei 2006-07-16 22:27 |
| #12 ;-) |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-07-16 16:53 |
| #11 Clearly, we're in violent agreement again. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-07-16 16:53 |
| #10 Oops, my response was to #7, not NS. |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-07-16 16:52 |
| #9 Maybe. Or maybe it's the result of Japan looking at the Chinese demographic bomb of huge numbers of young adult and adolescent males who will never find Chinese wives. And of Chinese swordrattling of the sort that countries with excess males tend to do. And then looking at their own demographics, at the Chinese protection for the NORK nuclear / missile program and deciding that there was a need for a regional counterbalance. I know we've been encouraging them in that direction. We don't WANT to be the only ones pushing back. |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-07-16 16:51 |
| #8 Nations don't have permanent allies, only permanent interests. There hasn't been a threat to Japanese survival till now. Korea also gives them a convenient excuse to arm up for their real enemy and threat, China. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-07-16 16:50 |
| #7 I think these events are a result of Japan loosing some level of confidence in the US as a protector. After watching our internal politics over the last 4 years the Japanese government may not be willing to bet its life on the US willingness to protect them if things become really nasty. I canÂ’t say that I blame them when I look at the actions of the Democratic party over the last few years. |
| Posted by: Dan Canaveral 2006-07-16 16:44 |
| #6 And you can bet that Mitsubishi could produce a miniaturized thermonuculear warhead for any ICBM very quickly. |
| Posted by: john 2006-07-16 14:43 |
| #5 There are reports that the M-5 design was modeled after the LG-118A Peacekeeper ICBM The Solid Rocket Boosters used on the H2-A would make excellent stages for a Heavy ICBM. |
| Posted by: john 2006-07-16 14:40 |
| #4 I bet the Chicons are still having nightmares about the Imperial Japanese occupation. Imperual Japan was not nice. Not nice at all..... |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2006-07-16 12:54 |
| #3 #2: "A nuclear Japan should keep Kimmie up at night." Kimmie, hell. It should keep the ChiComs up at night. :-D |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2006-07-16 12:16 |
| #2 A nuclear Japan should keep Kimmie up at night. That would add an interesting dimension to the Asian theater. |
| Posted by: bigjim-ky 2006-07-16 11:29 |
| #1 Article 9 did not look into the future and see Kim standing at their door step, it must be ammended. Japan has every right to defend herself and a preemptive strike just might be the best defence. |
| Posted by: 49 Pan 2006-07-16 10:02 |