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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Stratfor : Situation Review |
| 2006-07-20 |
| Email freebie, ergo no link. Sounds like a reasonable analysis. By George Friedman We have been following developments in the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict closely for several days. At this writing, the air-rocket war continues to rage, but the Israeli ground offensive that we would have expected by now has not yet been launched. There is some speculation that it will not be launched -- that a combination of air operations and a diplomatic process will be sufficient, from Israel's point of view, to negate the need for a ground attack. While the various processes grind their way along, it is time to review the situation. The first point to bear in mind is that the crisis did not truly begin with the capture of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah. The kidnappings presented a serious problem for Israel, but could not, by themselves, define the geopolitical issue. That definition came when Hezbollah rockets struck Haifa, Israel's third-largest city, on July 13. There were also claims coming from Hezbollah, and confirmed by Israeli officials, that Hezbollah had missiles available that could reach Tel Aviv. Israel's population is concentrated in the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem corridor and in the Tel Aviv-Haifa corridor. In effect, Hezbollah had attained the ability to strike at the Israeli heartland. Hezbollah has been hitting the northern part of this heartland, as well as pounding Israel's northern frontier. The capture of two soldiers posed a symbolic challenge to Israel, but the rocket attacks posed a direct geopolitical threat. Israel had substantial room for maneuver regarding the captured troops. The threat to the heartland, however, could not be evaded. To the extent possible, Israel had to stop the missile attacks. As important, it also had to eliminate Hezbollah's ability to resume such attacks. The Israelis can tolerate these strikes for a certain period of time, so long as the outcome is a final cessation. What was not an option for Israel was to engage in temporary solutions that would allow Hezbollah to attack the heartland regularly, at its discretion. Hezbollah has posed a problem that Israel cannot choose to ignore. |
| Posted by:anonymous5089 |
| #2 The only real conclusion will be Israel forcing the Lebanese army out of its comfy barracks to occupy the Hezbollah territory and the non-combatant Shiites who live there, for such a length of time that the Leb army develops an inertia in their new space and will have to be disloged. The only other alternative would be to force all the Shiites into Syria, so Lebanon would be fully Christian and Sunni, no Shiites allowed. |
| Posted by: Anonymoose 2006-07-20 13:39 |
| #1 Never much cared for Stratfor. Has a distinct leftwing perspective. As for this piece, it's lacking any real insights. Israel has to get rid of the rocket threat. Oh, really? People pay for this analysis? |
| Posted by: Iblis 2006-07-20 13:00 |