U.S. Rep. Cynthia McKinney lost support last week in her political stronghold, south DeKalb County, forcing her into a runoff, an analysis of election results shows. Former DeKalb County Commissioner Hank Johnson, who surprised many with his strong showing in the Democratic primary, made inroads in the predominantly black neighborhoods where McKinney traditionally has enjoyed staunch support. And he carried many precincts in largely white north DeKalb, according to the analysis by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.The two will face each other in an Aug. 8 runoff. The winner will face Republican Catherine Davis, considered a long shot, in the November election. McKinney was expected to win Tuesday's primary easily, but she won 47 percent of the ballots cast to Johnson's 44 percent. Alpharetta businessman John F. Coyne III, received 8.5 percent. The AJC analysis looked at voter turnout in DeKalb, where most 4th District voters live. The AJC also compared Tuesday's election returns in 120 DeKalb precincts with the results of McKinney's 2002 race, which she lost to Denise Majette. (The Georgia Legislature drew new congressional lines in 2005, so only 120 precincts were the same in 2006 as in 2002.)
The analysis found:
• This year, 49 percent fewer voters cast ballots for McKinney than in 2002. That indicates those voters either did not cast ballots Tuesday, or voted for another candidate.While the analysis gives some insight into what happened Tuesday, it's difficult to predict how many voters will go to polls for the runoff or how they will cast their ballots. Runoffs are known for very low voter turnouts.
• Overall turnout was significantly lower this year than in 2002. Then, 47 percent of 4th District voters who live in DeKalb went to the polls; this year only 26 percent cast ballots.
• Support for McKinney dropped by an average of 4.5 percentage points across the 120 precincts. She experienced the biggest decline in south DeKalb precincts. In the precincts where McKinney was strongest in 2002, she still won majorities this year but by a lower percentage.
• Johnson had the strongest support in predominantly white north DeKalb, but he received a lower percentage of the vote in many of those precincts than Majette did in 2002. The third opponent, Coyne, received 10 to 20 percent of the vote in many of those precincts.