 Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice arrived in the region Saturday night for the start of another round of shuttle diplomacy between Jerusalem and Beirut, aiming to push a diplomatic solution for ending the war in Lebanon. Rice met with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert Saturday night in private. She will depart for Lebanon Sunday and will decide following meetings there whether to return to Israel for more talks.
The deal being put forth by Rice is for the deployment in Lebanon of an "international stabilization force" comprising 10,000 to 30,000 troops in return for Israel's withdrawal from the controversial Shaba Farms, on the western slopes of Mount Hermon.
| Oh lordy, don't do that. Syria and Lebanon (but I repeat myself) will just declare another small chunk of the Golan to be 'Lebanese'. Lather, rinse, repeat. |
The international force would assist the Lebanese army to deploy in southern Lebanon and inspect the crossings between Syria and Lebanon, so that no arms will be smuggled to Hezbollah.
| Will they be willing to destroy any vehicle that tries to run the inspection sites? Will they shoot any Syrian or Hezbie mooks who try to interfere? |
Rice did not ask Olmert during their meeting to end the fighting at this stage, but it is assumed at the Defense Ministry that the IDF has 7 to 10 days to continue its operation in Lebanon.
By Wednesday the U.S. would like to gain approval for a new Security Council resolution that will call for an end to hostilities.
| And then two to three months to negotiate the new MNF composition. I'm waiting for the Belgians to step up. |
Israel sources estimate the U.S. will allow a few more days for mopping up operations by the IDF.
Defense sources said that in view of Rice's return to Israel, it appears that for the first time since the start of the war, the "diplomatic clock" is beginning to tick faster. According to the sources, the General Staff has received orders to accelerate its offensive on areas close to the border in order to deepen any possible attack on the Hezbollah before the declaration of a cease-fire.
Prior to the Olmert-Rice meeting, sources in Jerusalem said the Bush administration has asked Israel to be flexible over the issue of a pullout from Shaba Farms, so that the support of the Lebanese government to the deal being formulated can be assured. However, following the meeting Saturday night, sources in the Prime Minister's Office said Rice did not present the withdrawal from Shaba Farms as a condition for the support of the government of Lebanon. "Our position is based on the decision of the Security Council that ruled that there is no territorial dispute between us [Lebanon and Israel]," the sources said.
| And that's the way it should stay. We simply can't give the Syrians, the Lebanese (but I repeat myself) or the Hezbies any fig leaf on this. The Hezbies have to be seen as beaten. |
The Bush administration would like to further the Shaba Farms issue as a gesture to Lebanon's Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, which would be in return for an official Lebanese government request for such a force to be deployed in its territory.
| If Siniora doesn't want to issue the invitation, fine, the IDF can find something to do in southern Lebanon. Siniora has no power and no cards to play, so don't give him one. |
Over the weekend Olmert indicated his willingness to discuss the Shaba Farms issue. In response to a press question, officials at the Prime Minister's Office reiterated the view Olmert presented during a meeting with France's Chirac, during their meeting last month, that Israel will agree to talk about a pullout from Shaba Farms after Security Council resolution 1559 calling for the disarmament of Hezbollah is implemented and following the international recognition of a Syrian declaration that the Shaba Farms are Lebanese territory.
The defense establishment is opposed to the inclusion of Shaba Farms into any diplomatic arrangement for ending the current confrontation, out of concern that this will be interpreted as an achievement by Hezbollah's leadership. The IDF is not opposed to a pullout on security grounds, but would prefer to see the matter raised under different circumstances and not as part of a cease-fire deal.
| Absolutely correct. The Hezbies have to be beaten down, and the region has to see that challenging the IDF leads to the destruction of your military force with nothing to show for it. |
The defense establishment is also willing to release the three Lebanese prisoners held in Israel, in return for a return of the abducted soldiers, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. |