| Submit your comments on this article | |
| Syria-Lebanon-Iran | |
| Hizballah Is On The Ropes: The Clock Ticks for Hizballah | |
| 2006-08-02 | |
By Steve Schippert Amid the relentless images of the dead extracted from a building in Qana, amid the fiery anger those images generated – from Lebanon to Europe and from Egypt to Indonesia - and amid deafening global cries for an immediate ceasefire, a curiously contradictory picture is emerging from the battlefields of Hizballistan: Hizballah is on the ropes, running short of resources and desperate for a ceasefire for its very survival. While the world has held itself aghast at ‘Israeli aggression,’ Israel has been relentless in pursuit of what has been described as the fiercest Arab fighting force in the region. Undeterred by global outcry as over two thousand rockets and missiles have rained down upon Israeli cities with relatively little note, Israel has made good on their Prime Minister’s declaration of “Enough.” Israel is providing a lesson on fighting the war on terror. The mighty Hizballah, rightfully feared as the most lethally armed terrorist organization on the planet, is now on the ropes. Only their lifeline from Syria sustains them in the midst of devastating strikes from the Israeli Air Force. From the hundreds of rocket launchers in southern Lebanon to weapons depots and infrastructure all the way up the Bekaa Valley in Baalbek, Hizballah’s operational headquarters city, the IAF has exacted a heavy toll from Hizballah since the attack in Israel in which Hizballah terrorists killed eight IDF soldiers and abducted the two surviving. In fact, in a radio interview with John Batchelor, retired Air Force General Tom McInerney detailed a debriefing with a senior IDF official in which he detailed that Israel believes their airstrikes have eliminated 70% of the long-range Iranian ZelZal missile systems in Hizballah hands. McInerney noted that over 1000 Hizballah infrastructure targets have been struck by Israeli air power up and down the Bekaa Valley (once called the most heavily defended air corridor on the planet) and throughout Southern Lebanon, including weapons storage facilities, command and control centers, vehicle repair facilities and 18 Hizballah financial centers which serve in the place of banks. While sustaining these enormous losses, Hizballah is having difficulty re-supplying across the Syrian border. Convoys from Syria are struck by F-16’s and drones once they are within Lebanese borders, often with the massive secondary explosions that indicate arms shipments. The Israelis believe that Bashar Assad is “directly involved” in the attempts to smuggle rockets, other arms and ammunition to Hizballah, and the release of the results of ‘defense establishment’ intelligence is Israel’s way of sending a message to the Syrian president. In what is likely to be perceived as a potential escalation, Bashar Assad told the Syrian Army to raise its readiness and they have reportedly been sent from their barracks and posts to the field. But this is very unlikely any Syrian attempt to re-enter Lebanon to come to the aid of Hizballah, as the IDF can dispatch of the Syrian military forces with far greater ease than they can Hizballah. Syria wants nothing of Israel’s IDF/IAF war machine. That’s what Hizballah is for. As Assad senses Israel’s growing frustration over the doomed yet constant shipments of arms into Hizballah, the move is most likely to get them spread out in a reflexive and defensive maneuver. To leave them in their barracks is to create a ‘target rich environment’ under each roof should Israel decide to send a less subtle message to Assad. Sure, Assad may have sounded tough when he said, “The barbaric war of annihilation the Israeli aggression is waging on our people in Lebanon and Palestine is increasing in ferocity,” but that’s what dictators and state sponsors of terrorism are supposed to say. What likely was in his mind as his message was typed for distribution was far more fearful than fearsome. As they are for Iran, Hizballah is Syria’s front-line Special Forces. Behind them, it gets mighty thin mighty fast. Curiously, Israel also said that, according to their intelligence, Hizballah is not allowed to fire Iranian missiles without Iranian permission and that few have been fired. The most notable was the C-802 Silkworms that put an Israeli frigate out of commission and sunk an Egyptian transport ship. But, after the Hizballah-manned Lebanese Army ground radars were eliminated in short order, the C-802’s have been dormant. Israel’s intelligence lets out what it wants to let out (fact or fiction) for specific design. So what is the design here? It’s simple. Israel is intent on putting it’s boot squarely on Hizballah’s throat, once and for all, and allowing both Iran and Syria to stay clear. Hizballah is Iran’s ground force against Israel. Iran has no other offensive capabilities in the Levant aside from missiles launched from their own borders that will likely get shot out of the air. After Hizballah, they’re out of options at the moment. Israel knows this and is giving Iran a face-saving way to quietly back out. After all, Iran never ‘gave permission’ for Hizballah to fire their weapons. Israel is saying, “Take your 60 recently sent jihadists back and go home.” If Iran ignores this, there really is little they can do in any event, as the logistical conduit utilized from Syria is increasingly being collapsed under the weight of Israeli air power. But Hizballah is also Syria’s principle ground force against Israel. Syria’s shallow army is the one force aside from Hizballah that can muster a fight within the battlespace. It would be a short fight at that. But in any event, for Syria, Israel hands a different message without a face-saving option. By declaring the Assad is ‘directly invovled,’ Israel is warning him, ‘“We know what you’re doing and we hold you personally responsible.” Israel does not need to roll tanks on Damascus or even drop a few 2000-pounders on military installations. They simply need to convey that it’s just as easy to bank east from Baalbek as it is to bank west. Leave the option to Assad. He likes his palaces. He’ll make the right self-preserving choice. And with that, the supply lines are cut off, leaving Hizballah alone with their pride and their banter, backing northward in a battered creep up the Bekaa Valley. It is an unpleasant feeling when your eyes are feeding your brain the images of where you’ve been rather than where you’re going…especially in a fight. So, while the Iranians, the Syrians, the Lebanese, Hizballah and seemingly the entire world demands a ceasefire, Israel knows that a ceasefire is nothing more than a quiet pause for re-arming Hizballah. They’ll have none of it. Israel’s inner security cabinet just authorized the ‘widening of the ground offensive.’ Take that in context with the above messages to all parties involved. While the IDF may not roll Merkavas all the way up to Baalbek, the Hizballah that emerges from a fight they could not finish will be denied southern Lebanese territory and a shell of its former self, requiring years - and much treasure - to reconsitute. “Enough.” Assad loves his palaces and Iran is trapped on the wrong side of the Persian Gulf. The clock ticks for Hizballah. | |
| Posted by:lotp |
| #13 In your 'strategic' calculations do you include that the UN and other 'world opinion' are no longer recognized as potent as it was prior to 9/11. As some Arabs have observed about Bush, with him there are no helicopters [in retreat]. They have sold their influence by the obstruction, pandering, and outright intolerance. So, what are they going to do? If the UN was demonstrated to be impotent by the terrorists for years in Lebanon, why should the US or Israel really pay attention to it or other 'leaders'. The US and Israel are the ones making the real key calls. |
| Posted by: Thregum Sperese9498 2006-08-02 22:42 |
| #12 If that's true why is Israel is always proved wrong. And it's political leadership is changing talking by the day the wit and wisdom of CU2772. Cassandra couldn't sing any better, loser, not "looser" |
| Posted by: Frank G 2006-08-02 20:20 |
| #11 A couple of points to make with respect to Hezbollah's strategic victory. It assumes that ther will be unlimited cannon fodder coming forward to martyr. While that may appear to be the case, much of the arab world appears very uneasy with rise of Iranian power, because their borders are much closer to Iran than ours. Hezbollah and ilk can only continue if the host is compliant. In Lebanon's case, that parasitic mode may not be allowed to continue. The Russians seem to have brought Chechnia under control, the US are working on Iraq, NATO in Afghanistan. As long as we continue in this manner, the legions of martyrs will not reach a critical mass, the process will be messy but manageable. The elephant in the room is the Iranian nuclear program. If allowed to continue, it will become the umbrella under which Hezbollah can expand without limits. |
| Posted by: john 2006-08-02 20:15 |
| #10 “The barbaric war of annihilation the Israeli aggression is waging on our people in Lebanon and Palestine is increasing in ferocity,” Erm ... I thought it was the Arabs who sought annihilation of the Jews. Something must have been lost in translation there. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-08-02 18:57 |
| #9 If that's true why is Israel is always proved wrong. And it's political leadership is changing talking by the day. |
| Posted by: Clerert Uneamp2772 2006-08-02 16:47 |
| #8 Yes, that appears to be the war that is in its early stages. The first skirmishes were the Palestinian terror acts of the 70s. It will be a long and frustrating war, I suspect. Eye have got to be opened before we fight it fully. And insofar as that is true, maybe it's not a totally bad thing that Israel is doing so poorly in the media war. For far too long both her friends and her enemies have seen Israel as an all-powerful force able to kill as she pleases with little vulnerability in return. One reason Europe and its ilk have no qualms denouncing Israeli actions while tolerating the ongoing deaths of Israelis through terror is that assertion that Israel is a bully, Israel is the "big one" who should absorb any strikes by those poor little Palestinians and others. Ahmadinajad has done Israel a favor by ripping off the camoflage and making clear what many Muslims fervently desire: the utter humiliation and destruction of Israel and all Jews. It is more than time for supporters of the 'poor Palestinians' to look at this squarely and realize they are the ones supporting genocide. |
| Posted by: lotp 2006-08-02 16:41 |
| #7 From a former Marine pilot with some extensive contacts in Israel (his company does a lot of investment financing with Israeli companies) and other intelligence sources. He has been very correct in prior analyses he has done. This one is disturbing but seems to be accurate. Especially after the head of Hezbollah, today, on Arab TV is proclaiming victory. Hezbollah's strategic victory It's obvious that there were a LOT of rockets stored in southern Lebanon, and somewhat north of the border in staging areas. That represents substantial preparation that involves time, money, and risk. It's impossible to remain invisible with launchers, support, logistics, etc. The logistics train seems obvious: from Iran, through Syria, to Lebanon via the Bekaa Valley, then south. Observers can be reasonably confident that the rockets aren't being manufactured locally. My first point is that the U.S. and Israel must have known what was there. They must have known how the weaponry got there, where it was made, and how it was built up. The region in which those buildups occurred were largely occupied by Christian Lebanese, which should have enhanced intelligence quantity and quality. Between satellite, UAV, comint, and humint, Israel should have had an accurate picture of what was happening across the border. There was a huge buildup that included manpower, plus large diversified stockpiles of launchers and support for thousands of unguided rockets. That's a weapon concept that must be understood... Such rockets are suitable only for area fire. They were first developed by the Chinese, then introduced in western combat by Wellington's forces against Napoleon, and the concept has not evolved significantly up to the Katyusha. Unguided rockets played an important role in WWII, but generally for mass firings against widespread targets. They are so inaccurate that the statistical probability of hitting even a large building from a few miles away is extremely low, even when firing hundreds of rockets at a time. In WWII, forces fired many hundreds of rockets at each other either in offense or defense, but concentrated in a few minutes. There were few instances when isolated rockets were used for harrassment. In Vietnam, on the other hand, incoming Katyusha-like rockets hit our bases frequently. It was a regular occurrence at Marine bases north of Danang, but there was little damage, even to helicopters in the open. It was like Haifa today - two or three rockets comprised an attack, and most landed in the open. The difference is that the Vietnamese attackers had to carry their rockets within range, and they used field-expedient launcher (think forked stick). In S Lebanon, it appears that the rockets were emplaced over time, hidden or buried, awaiting a team to arrive with a mobile launcher. Again, there's evidence of huge preparation to support this opportunity to provoke Israel - and that's precisely what it is. But my point is that despite Israel's anger at every injury and every damaged building, these rockets are rarely more than an annoyance, provocation at a higher level. Such preparation implies a plan, and certainly Hezbollah is working with one. It's a good one, supported by Syria and Iran and perhaps others in the Muslim world. Here's what I think is going on. This is an asymmetrical battle in more ways than one. There's asymmetry in military power but also in information flow. Israel is "open", with news media everywhere providing interviews, photography, statistics, and more. Everything is known, available - there are few secrets. News reports general destruction in Lebanon, and it's sickening because of collateral damage to non-Hezbollah civilians and their homes, and the destruction of Lebanese infrastructure. But the news does not discuss damage to Hezbollah because that information is simply not available. There are few reports of casualties and there is little public evidence of destruction of weapon stockpiles or launchers. What the public - including the Arab public - sees is Israeli casualties and damage, an Israeli army that appears to be moving aimlessly in southern Lebanon, destruction of Lebanese infrastructure and resources, dead and injured Lebanese citizens, and an articulate Nasrallah on television claiming victory and more to come. The Israeli military knows that Hezbollah is losing big - the Israeli government gets good reports from the battlefield, and it knows the tactical truth. Even the U.S. military, which is watching closely, knows that tactical truth. There is enormous asymmetry in casualties. Despite discussions with people who have excellent sources, however, I found no defensible estimates of Hezbollah casualties! Many fighters who began this war against Israel may already be dead, and the casualty rate may be enormous. Those who are killed are buried on the spot and disappear, and those who are wounded enter the Lebanese civilian medical system, such as it is. Hezbollah need not bear the burden of a military medical infrastructure, and there's no way the media can report on casualties. Hezbollah leadership probably doesn't know the tactical reality of the battlefield casualty list, and the constant degradation of its battlefield logistics. But it doesn't matter... The strategic truth is something else. The Hezbollah casualty list doesn't matter. The logistical losses do not matter. Strategically, Hezbollah has already won an enormous victory. Hezbollah has grown in stature, and since Israel's pain is visible to the media but that of Hezbollah is mostly invisible, many Muslim youths see a modern David fighting a mechanized Goliath - successfully. I believe that recruits are racing to join. Despite constant casualties, the size of Hezbollah's "army" is increasing, not decreasing, at the discretion of Hezbollah leadership. Manpower is almost certainly fltering into the area from other parts of Lebanon, from Syria, and even from other areas in which Hezbollah has established recruiting stations. They don't need uniforms, and to carry rockets they need little training. They will die in the grinder, and every death creates a martyr, plus family and friends that hate Israel and the U.S. It's a price that Hezbollah is happy to pay because the long-term profit is high. This formula will enable Hezbollah to protract this battle to gain favorable terms from the west, because the logistics support system and the manpower pool are both infinite. The tactical equation is simple: Israel is inflicting huge damage against an irregular army that can do no more than send a few relatively insignificant rockets in response. Strategically however, Hezbollah's manpower and supplies are constantly replenished, and the longer this war continues the more damage will be done to Israel in the Arab world - including its northern neighbor - and the more credibility Hezbollah will earn. Hezbollah is defining a set of tactics that can work on any border between an Islamic country and a western country. It requires logistical support, recruiting of people willing to die for their cause, a couple of years of planning and preparation, and then provocation. Any border... Nasrallah and his organization will emerge from this small war a powerful force in Islamic politics. In years to come, this will change the middle-east equation. But that is not the end of my logic. This small war has already triggered expanded awareness by the west that the problem is not just an Israeli-Arab conflict. The west recognizes that Iran is the logistics and technology source for Hezbollah, and Syria the channel. As this continues, the western world will understand that if Iran is willing to support a small war so far away, it's only a step to support small wars further away - and then larger wars. Iran is not an Arab nation - it's Aryan, but what it does is in the name of Islam. The current small war along the Lebanese:Israel border changes the future. It's not just Arabs vs. Israel - that's the tactical battle, and it's only 50 years old. The strategic war is Islam vs. the west, and it's been ongoing for centuries. Lately, it's been hidden behind the rhetoric and platitudes of hopeful politicians, but now that reality is becoming brightly illuminated. In decades to come, this understanding may make an even bigger difference to the world's quation. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2006-08-02 16:01 |
| #6 Illiteracy watch- that would be "their effectiveness..." Its a matter of a gud ejukasion. |
| Posted by: Baba Tutu 2006-08-02 15:49 |
| #5 In an effort to separate what I hope to be true from what actually is, I find myself asking why Israel should be able to degrade or destroy Hizb now when they could not during their near twenty year occupation of Southern Lebanon? The use of fixed positions may be one distinction, but the Hezzies are venal, not stupid and will surely adjust their tactics. Eventually, will they not inevitably reemerge? Why should Israel be able to interdict resupply now when they couldn't before? The US hasn't done it effectively in Iraq yet, so what are Israel's chances? A lot is riding on the Israelis being able to pull off what they've started. They're effectiveness is the leading question of the day. |
| Posted by: Baba Tutu 2006-08-02 15:46 |
| #4 200 rockets attacked Israel today. |
| Posted by: Clerert Uneamp2772 2006-08-02 14:58 |
| #3 In a grinding down war of attrition, the Hezzies lack logistical depth. Their source of resources can be isolated, interdicted, and are in no position of exposing themselves to direct conflict. Unless Bush and the Reps really want to politically die this November, it is highly unlikely the Israeli support is going to be cut off. Time is on the side of the Israelis. Grind boys, grind. |
| Posted by: Ebbolush Clolutch6677 2006-08-02 12:56 |
| #2 The essential problem with the Hezzies is that they don't understand war at all. They understand attacking lone patrols and looking like tough guys. They expected the 13000 missles to be a magic talisman to allow them to continue. When the bluff was called, they have no plan B. |
| Posted by: Oldcat 2006-08-02 12:14 |
| #1 "The mighty Hizballah, rightfully feared as the most lethally armed terrorist organization on the planet, is now on the ropes. Only their lifeline from Syria sustains them in the midst of devastating strikes from the Israeli Air Force. From the hundreds of rocket launchers in southern Lebanon to weapons depots and infrastructure all the way up the Bekaa Valley in Baalbek, HizballahÂ’s operational headquarters city, the IAF has exacted a heavy toll from Hizballah since the attack in Israel in which Hizballah terrorists killed eight IDF soldiers and abducted the two surviving." Ahem. *cough* *cough* Let me clear my throat. HezbollahÂ’s Iwo Jima Delusion |
| Posted by: Lancasters Over Dresden 2006-08-02 10:28 |