 by Robert Fisk
In the sparse Baathist drawing rooms of Damascus, reality often seems a long way away.
But it was a sign of the times that President Bashar al-Assad was able to bring the great and the good of Damascus to their feet by the simple token of telling the truth - which no other Arab leader has chosen to do these past five weeks: that the Lebanese Hizbollah guerrilla army has, in effect, won this round of their war with Israel.
| So they claim. There are lots of unhappy Israelis who are helping to make that point. The Hezbies claim victory by not having been wiped out like previous Arab armies. That's not a western definition of victory. |
There was plenty of hyperbole in the Assad speech.
A conflict that has cost 1,000 Lebanese civilian lives ...
| ... a good number of whom were Hezbies, Hezbie symphs or Hezbie gophers ... |
... can hardly be called a "glorious battle" but he did at least reflect more reality than his opposite number in Washington who, driven by self-delusion or his love of Israel, claimed that Hizbollah had been defeated in Lebanon.
| The Hezbies got spanked and got pushed off some real estate. That may not be a glorious victory for Israel, but it looks more like a western definition of defeat for the Hezbies. |
Israel's "victory" in Lebanon presumably has to be added to our own famous "victories" in Iraq and Afghanistan.
| Remind us all how the Taliban, in control and in power in 2001, are doing today Robert. Remind us all how Saddam is doing today. Remind us how many days it's been since Uday last raped an Iraqi woman. |
Syria and Iran, according to Mr Bush, were responsible for the "suffering" of Lebanon - which contains the seeds of truth since Hizbollah provoked this war by capturing two Israeli soldiers and killing three others on 12 July - ...
| Nice of you to notice that. Killing and capturing soldiers from another country usually does provoke a response. |
... although it wasn't the Syrian or Iranian air force that was slaughtering the convoys of innocent refugee civilians in Lebanon.
| The Syrian air force was nowhere to be seen. The Israeli air force was bombing the Hezbies. |
So it was that President Assad must have enjoyed his little peroration in Damascus yesterday.
| Since he has so little to celebrate other than propaganda ... |
"This is a [American] administration that adopts the principle of pre-emptive war that is absolutely contradictory to the principle of peace," he said. "Consequently, we don't accept peace soon or in the foreseeable future."
Mr Assad can say that again.
| He might as well, since we'll say it too. There's not going to be 'peace' until Assad is out of power, the Mad Mullahs™ are dead or on the run, the Paleos decide to value their children for something other than splodydopes, and you shut up. |
Indeed, there is no more sign that Hizbollah intends to "disarm" under the terms of UN Security Council resolutions 1559 and 1701 than Israel is prepared to abide by UN Security Council Resolution 242 and withdraw from Arab territories it occupied in 1967.
| Funny, Israel did comply with 1559, is complying with 1701, and evacuated Gaza so as to comply in part with 242 and 338. Remind me what Assad has done in that time? Remind us all what the Paleos have done? |
However, it is clear that President Assad now sees himself back at the centre of Arab power after his army's humiliating retreat from Lebanon last year.
| And the humiliating knock-down of his air force by the Israelis in 1982. And the humiliating buzzing of his summer palace by the IAF. And the humiliating performance of his army from the second day of the Yom Kippur war on. |
There was no more need for defeatism among Arabs, he said - a sentiment widely held in the real Arab world but quite absent from President Bush's fantasy Middle East.
| It's doubtful that the Sunni Arabs are going to gain a lot of pride from the Shi'a Hezbies, especially since their sponsors, the Iranians, would prefer to subjugate the Sunnis the day after they kill all the Joooz. |
That it should be Syria, of all nations, which can state this to so much applause probably says more about Washington than it does about Damascus. And it is, of course, the return of the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights - see UN Resolution 242 - that lies behind this whole disastrous war.
| Which the Israelis decided to keep after having been attacked for 25 years straight from it by the Syrians. You forgot to mention that, Robert. |
The truth is Israel opened its attack on Lebanon by claiming the Lebanese government was responsible for Hizbollah's attack - which it clearly was not - and that its military actions would achieve the liberation of the captured soldiers.
| Lebanon was responsible by allowing a terrorist organization to operate freely, build a military force, and worm its way into its government. The Cedar Revolution started nobly but it literally died out, as the Syrians and the Hezbies together snuffed and intimidated enough people to halt it in its tracks. If a 'sovereign' country can't control the terrorists and guerrillas within its borders, it's no longer sovereign. But it's still responsible. |
This, the Israelis have signally failed to do. The loss of 40 soldiers in just 36 hours and the successful Hizbollah attacks against Israeli armour in Lebanon were a disaster for the Israeli army.
| It's a setback, and the Israelis know it. Next time in, and there's going to be a next time real soon, the Israelis will have fixed the problems. Do the Hezbies have the same after-action analysis or do they rely on Allan? |
The fact that Syria could bellow about the "achievements" of Hizbollah while avoiding the destruction of a blade of grass inside Syria suggests a cynicism that has yet to be grasped inside the Arab world. But for now, Syria has won.
| And the next Israeli PM is going to make sure they lose. |
Iran, as Hizbollah's principal supporter, clearly thinks so too. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who usually talks far more than he thinks, condemned the US for supplying Israel with the weapons it used on Lebanese civilians - perfectly true. But he did not say Hizbollah's missiles come from a new-generation Iranian arsenal that did not even exist during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. While the US will be keen to assess the effectiveness of its weapons - albeit largely used on civilians - ...
| Exactly which side targeted civilians as part of its overall formal strategy? Robert can't mention that because it would disturb the meme. |
... no one should doubt that Iran will also be assessing the success of its new Fajr missiles - and their effect on the Israeli army.
| And the Israelis will be assessing the best way to take the Iranians out. What Olmert couldn't do this past month and may not be able to do at all is think strategically about how to solve the problems the Israelis face. But there are people in Israel who can, and I suspect they're going to be in charge soon. |
|