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| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| The Clock is Ticking... |
| 2006-08-28 |
| The world, it seems, has passed this way before. The summer's events in south Lebanon, Iraq, London, Afghanistan, North Korea and, above all, Iran, have filled the air with a sense of foreboding that few except the very oldest among us have ever felt. We appear to be teetering on the edge of a catastrophe so vast and terrible that only the evocation of similar upheavals in the past is able to do it justice. Over the last few months pundits and politicians have been competing to be among the first to bring us the bad news in the hope we will hail them as prophets and reward them with our trust. Yet it is only a few years since Francis Fukuyama declared with similar confidence, as Soviet communism finally imploded, taking with it the last skirmishes of the Cold War, that we had reached the End of History. How inadequate his diagnosis reads today as we contemplate the apocalypse. History provides endless precedents which might help us better understand our feelings of unease. But, if history is truly repeating itself, which episode is most appropriate? Are we within earshot of the Guns of August that in Barbara Tuchman's 1962 account of the opening of World War I heralded the slaughter of a generation of callow young men in the mud-filled trenches of the Western Front? Or are we, perhaps, again witnessing the Gathering Storm evoked by Winston Churchill, who in sonorous tones presented incontrovertible evidence that if left unchecked the ideology of the Nazis would bring our way of life to a bloody end? Both suggest that Armageddon is upon us. But two other slices of history might serve to illuminate our present plight and suggest ways to avoid losing in "the clash of civilizations," evident in Iran's proxy war against the West in south Lebanon and the mullahs' rush towards nuclear independence. The first is a period which is little remembered because it was cloaked in wartime secrecy and because its outcome was so quickly overshadowed by unprecedented human disaster: the race to make the first atom bomb. Attempts to unlock the devastating power of a nuclear doomsday weapon began in earnest from the moment Albert Einstein deduced that splitting the atom would unleash unlimited energy. As World War II clattered towards its conclusion, the German nuclear team was well advanced in rocketry, raining down V1 and V2 (for Vengeance) unmanned bombs on London much as Hezbollah has been showering Israel with arbitrary missiles, and Nazi scientists were making good progress, too, with their experiments in nuclear fission. But the success of the Allied invasion of Normandy and the Red Army's helter-skelter advance on Berlin brought not only the swift demise of Hitler but the end of his nuclear program. The recruitment of dozens of Axis scientists — famously personified by Stanley Kubrick's Dr. Strangelove — into America's Manhattan Project hastened the perfection of the Allied atom bomb and abruptly cut short the war against Japan. Iran is currently making rapid progress in its quest for a nuclear weapon, though unlike the Germans and the Allies who had to pioneer a new science, the mullahs' boffins have been given a flying start by our ally Pakistan in the manufacture of a hydrogen bomb and by the pirate state of North Korea in developing a rocket capable of reaching Paris and London as easily as Tel Aviv. The slow tick tock of U.N. diplomacy is granting Tehran valuable months in which to perfect its murderous technology. Which leads to the second glimpse of history that can help us better appreciate our current dilemma: Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Hitler at Munich. Chamberlain's mission was well intentioned and honorable, just as those who today advocate engaging President Ahmadinejad in dialogue are well meaning. By negotiating with Hitler, Chamberlain hoped to avoid a resumption of the daily massacres of the Great War. But Hitler, like Ahmadinejad, was playing for time. And Hitler, like Ahmadinejad, had no intention of abandoning his genocidal mission. He needed to involve his enemies in jaw-jaw to gain a valuable breathing space to bolster his munitions and gather his forces before unleashing war-war upon the rest of Europe. On Tuesday Secretary-General Annan will follow in Chamberlain's footsteps as he journeys to Tehran to persuade the mullahs to abandon their nuclear dreams. He will no doubt return bearing a promise that Iran has only peaceable intentions when they, the world's fourth largest producers of oil, ask for a little more time to perfect their nuclear power program. Like his predecessors, Mr. Annan is familiar with the lessons history can provide. On his return from Iran, the ever accommodating secretary-general will be careful not to hold aloft a worthless scrap of paper at the airport, nor repeat Chamberlain's forlorn hope of "peace in our time." |
| Posted by:DanNY |
| #9 Szilard! What do I win? A free fallout shelter for my backyard? |
| Posted by: Parabellum 2006-08-28 17:45 |
| #8 Attempts to unlock the devastating power of a nuclear doomsday weapon began in earnest from the moment Albert Einstein deduced that splitting the atom would unleash unlimited energy Leo Szilard first deduced it - while waiting for a traffic light no less - and filed for a patent in 1934. Initially rejected - LOL. Einstein kick started the project with his letter to FDR. The letter was instigated by anyone....anyone... |
| Posted by: Clereting Angailing9636 2006-08-28 16:24 |
| #7 It's time to play dirty. |
| Posted by: 3dc 2006-08-28 16:05 |
| #6 Bottom line: But Hitler, like Ahmadinejad, was playing for time. And Hitler, like Ahmadinejad, had no intention of abandoning his genocidal mission. He needed to involve his enemies in jaw-jaw to gain a valuable breathing space to bolster his munitions and gather his forces before unleashing war-war upon the rest of Europe. On Tuesday Secretary-General Annan will follow in Chamberlain's footsteps as he journeys to Tehran to persuade the mullahs to abandon their nuclear dreams. He will no doubt return bearing a promise that Iran has only peaceable intentions when they, the world's fourth largest producers of oil, ask for a little more time to perfect their nuclear power program. Like his predecessors, Mr. Annan is familiar with the lessons history can provide. On his return from Iran, the ever accommodating secretary-general will be careful not to hold aloft a worthless scrap of paper at the airport, nor repeat Chamberlain's forlorn hope of "peace in our time." Annan already is the Chamberlain of our time, regardless of any outcome in Iran. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-08-28 15:54 |
| #5 the only thing that the liberal philosophy has accomplished in my lifetime is to get millions of innocent people killed from pacifist inaction. |
| Posted by: 2b 2006-08-28 13:33 |
| #4 We appear to be teetering on the edge of a catastrophe so vast and terrible that only the evocation of similar upheavals in the past is able to do it justice.< As I have said previously (not an original thought however), one of these donks is going to light the fuze on a nuke, and it will be Katty by the door. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2006-08-28 12:38 |
| #3 Re gathering storm: the cumulative effect of high gasoline prices is manifest in up to a extra $50 billion dollars in Iran's pockets this year alone. Should we allow the Ayatollahs the opportunity to spend that money? As I have said before here, September could be either one of America's best months ever, or worst. I believe that the President has determined that we cannot co-exist with the Ayatollahs. Unless they are eliminated, and not by yet another worthless ground war or air bombing with concrete-bombs (used in part in the Baghdad liberation), a death warrant against future generations of Americans will have been signed. |
| Posted by: Snease Shaiting3550 2006-08-28 12:22 |
| #2 According to the available info I have, India has the H-bomb and Pakistan only has the A-bomb. German physicist Heisenberg had made some fundamental errors in his calculations. That's why they went with heavy water research. Our first reactors used much, much cheaper and available carbon for the moderator and thus acheived criticality alot sooner. |
| Posted by: AlmostAnonymous5839 2006-08-28 09:34 |
| #1 Hmmm, I tend to agree with his central premise, but I really think this guy needs to make a few corrections to his article... As World War II clattered towards its conclusion, the German nuclear team was well advanced in rocketry, raining down V1 and V2 (for Vengeance) unmanned bombs on London much as Hezbollah has been showering Israel with arbitrary missiles, and Nazi scientists were making good progress, too, with their experiments in nuclear fission. As far as I know, the V1/V2 groups had nothing to do with the 'nuclear team', and as the payload on a V2 was about 1000 kg, and Little Boy weighed 4000 kg (Fat Man = 4630 kg), they would have had to do some rather nifty miniaturisation to make it work. I'm not sure that the Germans were progressing well with their fission work either, perhaps due to the lack of heavy water from the successful Telemark raids. I seem to recall an American investigation after the War that concluded the Germans were not very far down the road to nuclear weapons. But the success of the Allied invasion of Normandy and the Red Army's helter-skelter advance on Berlin brought not only the swift demise of Hitler but the end of his nuclear program. The recruitment of dozens of Axis scientists — famously personified by Stanley Kubrick's Dr. Strangelove — into America's Manhattan Project hastened the perfection of the Allied atom bomb and abruptly cut short the war against Japan. Huh? Now I'm really sure that captured Germans were not in the Manhattan project. The Trinity shot was on July 16th (3 months after the fall of the 'Thousand Year Reich') and the Hiroshima/Nagasaki bombs were used less than three weeks later. If he means the German rocket scientists, White Sands missile base and Strangelove = von Braun, well then that's ok. Finally, Iran is currently making rapid progress in its quest for a nuclear weapon, though unlike the Germans and the Allies who had to pioneer a new science, the mullahs' boffins have been given a flying start by our ally Pakistan in the manufacture of a hydrogen bomb and by the pirate state of North Korea in developing a rocket capable of reaching Paris and London as easily as Tel Aviv. So Pakistan has H-bomb technology now? I thought the ones tested were boosted fission weapons? |
| Posted by: Tony (UK) 2006-08-28 08:47 |