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China-Japan-Koreas
China on alert over a nuclear neighbour
2006-10-08
HT to Austin Bay RTWT
The North Korean refugee had one request for her captors before the young Chinese soldiers led her back across the steel-girdered bridge on the Yalu River that divides two “socialist allies”.

“She asked for a comb and some water because she said that if she was going to die she could not face going to heaven looking as dirty and dishevelled as this,” recounted a relative of one soldier who was there.

What happened next is testimony to the rising disgust in Chinese military ranks as Beijing posts more troops to the border amid a crisis with North Korea over its regimeÂ’s plan to stage a nuclear test.

The soldiers, who later told family members of the incident, marched the woman, who was about 30, to the mid-point of the bridge. North Korean guards were waiting. They signed papers for receipt of the woman, who kept her dignity until that moment. Then, in front of the Chinese troops, one seized her and another speared her hand — the soft part between thumb and forefinger — with the point of a sharpened steel cable, which he twisted into a leash.

“She screamed just like a pig when we kill it at home in the village,” the soldier later told his relative. “Then they dragged her away.”

Such stories are circulating widely among Chinese on the border, where wild rumours of an American attack on nuclear test sites have spread fears of a Chernobyl-type cloud of radiation and sparked indignation at the North Koreans. “I’ve heard it a hundred times over that when we send back a group they stab each one with steel cable, loop it under the collarbone and out again, and yoke them together like animals,” said an army veteran with relatives in service.

As international tensions over North Korea have soared, China has deployed extra combat units of the PeopleÂ’s Liberation Army (PLA) to man the border from the Yalu River in the south to the Tumen River near Russia - evidently fearing the risk of chaos and collapse.

The troop trains were rolling even on the Chinese mid-autumn festival on Friday. Civilian traffic on a main line was halted to allow one train to pass, with carriages jammed with glum soldiers in camouflage uniforms and flat cars carrying olive-green military vehicles.

And while a few off-duty men strolled with their sweethearts under the full moon along the banks of the Yalu, others watched from outposts at the silent, darkened shores of the Democratic PeopleÂ’s Republic of Korea.

“All visits by Chinese have recently been stopped,” said a local official. “They gave us no reason for it.”

The bomb test could come as early as today, the eighth anniversary of Kim Jong-ilÂ’s ascent to the top of the North Korean WorkersÂ’ party and one day before South KoreaÂ’s foreign minister, Ban Ki-moon, seeks election as secretary-general of the United Nations.

Last Friday, North Korea’s traditional allies, Russia and China, joined in a UN security council warning that a weapons test - likely to be in a disused mine 6,000ft underground in Shijung district near the Chinese border -would attract “universal condemnation”. It has put the Chinese under maximum pressure to restrain Kim. Japan’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is due in Beijing today to urge on the effort and the leader of South Korea is coming to make the same plea on Monday.

ChinaÂ’s dilemma is that its ruling elites are still bound to those of North Korea by a like-minded political authoritarianism. President Hu Jintao has even praised North Korea for keeping to its Stalinist politics, a view he may be repenting now that Kim has brought China to the brink of a nuclear crisis.

BeijingÂ’s main fear is that if Kim tests a bomb - the CIA believes he has enough plutonium for four; other US experts think more - then Japan will feel it has no choice but to acquire its own atomic arsenal. That would destroy the balance of power in northeast Asia that has kept the peace since the end of the second world war.

ChinaÂ’s secondary fear is that if KimÂ’s regime collapses, hundreds of thousands of desperate, hungry North Koreans, some armed, will flood across its border to sow unrest and instability.
Posted by:Frank G

#14  Nuthin' official yet here [Guam time] save for Pyongyangs offi announcements of a test + the USGS picking up of some kind of seismic actvity which as of this post has NOT YET been confirmed to be a de facto Norkie nuke test. Hopefully, Dubya + INTEL Boyz have accurate analyses of the NorKor's intents vv CHINA. WHN AND IFF THE NORKIE TEST IS CONFIRMED, NORTH KOREA'S AND CHINA'S EAST-SOUTH ASIAN + PACIFIC NEIGHBORS HAVE ALL THE MOTIVATION THEY NEED TO GO NUCLEAR + PARTICIPATE IN US GLOBAL GMD, which in turn means China's ambitions for Chinese-centric, Commie-centric Asian=Pacific hegemony has flown the proverbial coop. China must now deal wid poten [future]nuclearized JAPAN + SOUTH KOREA + now NORTH KOREA, not to mention VIETNAM, PHILIPPINES, THAILAND, + MALAYA-INDONESIA, ETAL. NUCLEAR TAIWAN!? MONGOLIA? MANCHURIA? There's the old "SILK ROAD(S)" across Central Asia but INDIA + MADMOUD=RADICAL IRAN IS THERE. COMMIE CHINA MUST EITHER GIVE UP ITS AMBITIONS FOR HEGEMONY, e.g. IMPLODE LIKE THE USSR, OR ELSE WAGE WAR TO ACHIEVE IT. BEIJING > There's always taking over ETHNICALLY SUFFERING/DYING RUSSIA vv PERVASIVE CHINESE IMMIGRATION.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2006-10-08 23:59  

#13  A: Nothing is ever so clear cut. I suspect that they give the Norks food to keep most Norks home, not crossing to China.

Like I said, China can absorb the entire North Korean population without breaking a sweat. In case you hadn't heard, China's booming coastal cities are running out of low cost labor. North Koreans would kill to get those jobs and those work conditions.

And China has plenty of room - to match Hong Kong's population density, China's population would have to rise from 1.3b people to 60b people. Note that China is about as densely populated as Britain.

A: For his part, Nero Jong Il has so often given the finger to the Chinese, I imagine that a good part of their army would love nothing better than to kick his annoying ass.

Kim Jong Il hasn't given the finger to the Chinese. The Chinese are using Kim to give the finger to Uncle Sam. A good part of the Chinese military would love nothing better than to kick Uncle Sam in the ass. And providing nukes to Uncle Sam's adversaries is their way of doing so without getting stomped by the US. Don't kid yourself - North Korea is viewed with a great deal of affection by average Chinese whereas the US is viewed with contempt bordering on hatred. They like our technology and our movies, but view us as the primary impediment to Chinese greatness, i.e. they are poor because we are rich, and they are weak because we are strong.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-10-08 23:50  

#12  South Korea says they detected 3.58 sesmic event.
Posted by: 3dc   2006-10-08 23:35  

#11  Just in time for the anniversary. Time to cut importation of Chinese goods and levy a hefty tariff on the rest.
Posted by: Zenster   2006-10-08 23:17  

#10  More from Kimmie:
North Korea Says Nuclear Test Successful
North Korea said Monday it has performed its first-ever nuclear weapons test. The country's official Korean Central News Agency said the test was performed successfully and there was no radioactive leakage from the site.

"The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the our military and people," KCNA said.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the test was conducted at 10:36 a.m. (9:36 p.m. EDT Sunday) in Hwaderi near Kilju city, citing defense officials.


Seems there's never a Mod cop around when you need one.
Posted by: .com   2006-10-08 23:15  

#9  This from the SKors:
S. Korea detects signs of N. Korea's nuke test
South Korea received intelligence on Monday that North Korea might have conducted a nuclear test, officials here said.

"President Roh Moo-hyun called in an emergency meeting of related ministers on Monday to discuss the North Korean nuclear issue," Foreign Ministry spokesman Choo Kyu-ho said. "The meeting comes as there has been a grave change in the situation involving the North's nuclear activity."

He refused to go into further detail, citing the sensitivity of the issue.
Posted by: .com   2006-10-08 23:03  

#8  Yep. No details, yet, just the announcement by the NorKies.

I posted the thin release, but it appears it's in the hold queue.
Posted by: .com   2006-10-08 23:01  

#7   HOLD THE PRESSES!

Fox News: North Korea has just claimed to have blown up an A-Bomb!

No confirmation from South Korea or the US!

Posted by: 3dc   2006-10-08 22:56  

#6  Nothing is ever so clear cut. I suspect that they give the Norks food to keep most Norks home, not crossing to China. For his part, Nero Jong Il has so often given the finger to the Chinese, I imagine that a good part of their army would love nothing better than to kick his annoying ass.

Not only has he been stealing Chinese relief supply trains, but he has done everything short of taking a crap on one of their banquet tables to offend them.

Into that situation, if the US comes forward with a discrete suggestion of how China could be rid of the dork, they may seriously consider it.
Posted by: Anonymoose   2006-10-08 22:42  

#5  T: What what!? - I thought the Chinese were supposed to be infallible when it came to geopolitics. I think the CIA has a term for when this happens - blowback.

I don't think you should underestimate Chinese geopolitical skill, which is as polished as its military is inept. This is not to say that Chinese diplomats are people you would enjoy having over for dinner - just that the cocktail of blustery threats and insincere flattery they wield has achieved Chinese foreign policy goals far more successfully than their crappy military.

Our mutual defense pacts in East Asia are contingent on local powers not having nukes. What isn't commonly known is that Uncle Sam shields them under his nuclear umbrella, which is another way of saying that any attack on them with nukes will bring a nuclear response from Sam. However, this umbrella - and the mutual defense pacts Uncle Sam has with them - is contingent upon those states remaining non-nuclear - any other option subjects the US to too many unpredictable risks. If Japan and South Korea get their own nuclear arsenals, they are effectively on their own. There is no way they are going to replicate either the US nuclear armory or American conventional might. This is why I believe China has calculated just about right - that Japan and South Korea aren't going to do anything for fear of being expelled from the alliance, and China will have added a new risk to Uncle Sam's strategic calculations.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-10-08 22:37  

#4  China's mounting a propaganda effort to mislead the West into thinking that its interests are aligned with theirs. The fact is that China owns Kim via free food and fuel and could stop him by simply turning the lights out and removing the feed tube. See my comments here.
Posted by: Zhang Fei   2006-10-08 22:10  

#3  JapanÂ’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, is due in Beijing today to urge on the effort and the leader of South Korea is coming to make the same plea on Monday.

I'd love to be a fly on the wall for that merry little chat.

"So, Japan is thinking of going nuclear too. Who do you recommend we get our bomb designs from? The North Koreans or the United States?"

"Well, er, uh, hommina hommina ..."

Nobody should ever fool themselves that North Korea is anything but a sock puppet of China's politburo. Everything they do has the Chinese Mandarins' black border two-week-in-advance approval. Any concern or contrition shown by China is purely for avid consumption by the UN.
Posted by: Zenster   2006-10-08 19:21  

#2  What what!? - I thought the Chinese were supposed to be infallible when it came to geopolitics. I think the CIA has a term for when this happens - blowback.
Posted by: Tony (UK)   2006-10-08 18:59  

#1  It was all fun and game allowing the NORKS to be probleatic to the US until now. I hope the cloud flows North, they are getting what they gave.
Posted by: 49 Pan   2006-10-08 18:56  

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