#9 Furry Critter -- I'll have a go at this without the Dire Hand-Wringing™, thanks. You were very direct in your criticism - I'll reciprocate.
The lesson in Iraq is damned clear: nation-building is a loser. Same for Afghanistan. Why? What do they have in common? Islam. Whether the add-on layer is Arrogant Arab or Terminally Tribal, Islam perverts, and eventually trumps, all efforts to bring change, progress.
Afghanistan is not ethnically homogenous, as Broadhead6 points out, but they are basically all "Islamists". The leap from their normal state of affairs to Taleban rule is short, more like a leetle bunny hop, methinks. Additionally, what happens in Kabul is mostly irrelevant outside of Kabul, so the Taleban gets a pass on most of its festivities. We're expecting them to "beam forward" 13 or 14 centuries. Some number will want it, will see what doing so offers, but if it requires removing Islam from the position of fundamental power, it ain't gonna happen, IMO. Having Islam as the underlying norm is equivalent to having a thumb on the scale. Big leverage there.
They have a tradition of tribes, clans, warlords and, at any of these arbitrary breakpoints, going to the highest bidder - for that day, anyway. They are, also, a perfect example of classic Islam. Can we overcome that? Can we compete against the ISI when the ISI pushes Islam, even though the precise flavor may not fit all Afghanis perfectly? Nope. Only if we could magically remove the ancient merger of their tribal traditions and Islam would we have a real chance. Islam is the big fat thumb on the scale. Beaucoup leverage. We could pour money into Afghanistan, accepting graft and corruption on the scale of a Genuine African Shithole™, until we have paid 100x over for converting the place into Disney World. Happy, happy, joy, joy. Then, the second we backed off, the Islamic asshats among them would loot the effort and none of them would care enough to stop it. The evidence we have says that's the result we can expect from nation-building efforts in the presence of Islam.
We are not willing to invest that much and they are not willing to change in our direction without some form of "duress", as you put it, such as an instant pass into the 21st century. And even then only temporarily - for as long as we are willing to fund it. We are failing in the nation-building thingy there because we ask more of them than they are willing to give or demand of themselves. What we expect and offer in compensation for the disruption of the norm is easily countered and overcome by that Islamic thumb on the scale.
How will we overcome the ancient ways, that combination of Tribal Warlord and Insane Islam, as long as Islam (i.e. the Saudi-funded ISI in this case) is bidding against us?
I don't believe we can. With Islam, the game is rigged. We've gotta remove the funding of the opposition or we're just wasting treasure.
That's my take.
I invite the experts to correct any and all of my take. |
Nato's top commander in Afghanistan has warned that the country is at tipping point and Afghans are likely to switch their allegiance to the Taliban if there is no visible improvement in their lives in the next six months. General David Richards, a British officer who commands 32,000 troops in Afghanistan, said that if life doesn't get better over the winter, 70 per cent of Afghans could get behind the Taliban. "They will say, 'We do not want the Taliban but then we would rather have that austere and unpleasant life Â… than another five years of fighting'," he said.