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| China-Japan-Koreas |
| North Korea Awakens the Sleeping Giant |
| 2006-10-11 |
| October 11, 2006: The North Korean nuclear tests will have the effect of spurring the growth of a new military superpower in East Asia. Japan has, since World War II, not felt the need to re-arm. However, the recent North Korean tests are likely to change that, awakening what is arguably the sleeping military giant of Asia. From Japan's perspective, they have no choice. North Korea fired a missile over Japan in 1998. North Korea has also kidnapped Japanese citizens, and despite diplomatic protests, attempted to test both ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons in 2006. North Korea is not the only neighbor of Japan who has done some pretty irrational things. In the past decade, two Chinese generals have made very thinly-veiled nuclear threats towards the United States. From Japan's perspective, East Asia is obviously a neighborhood that is becoming a lot less safe than it was in 1990. At present, Japan spends about one percent of its GDP on the defense budget ($42.1 billion in 2005). Compare this to China, which spends about 4.3 percent of its GDP on defense (to the tune of $81.48 billion in 2005). Japan's relative lack of defense spending still has not prevented it from turning out what is arguably the best navy and air force in the region, one that outclasses even China. As one example, Japan has 40 destroyers in its Maritime Self-Defense Force. China has 25, only nine of which are really modern. China has 45 frigates, of which perhaps 15 are modern. Japan has nine. Most of China's submarines are very old Romeo-class submarines or the Ming-class ( which is a variant of the Romeo). Only 22 of China's subs are relatively modern. Japan has 16 modern diesel-electric submarines. The respective air forces also show a technological disparity. The bulk of the 1,250 fighters in Chinese service are J-6 and J-7 models, copies of the 1950s era MiG-19 and MiG-21, respectively. China's only modern fighters are the 200 J-11 (Su-27) and 180 Su-30MKK Flankers. The Japanese air defense force centers around 180 F-15J fighters and 130 F-2s (best described as an F-16 that took steroids). Japan has been able to keep pace with China with a defense budget that is one percent of its GDP. Were Japan to spend the 2.4 percent of GDP, the same percentage that the United Kingdom spends, its defense budget would be $101.4 billion. If Japan were to spend 4.3 percent of its GDP (what China spends), its defense budget would reach $181.03 billion. What does a Japanese military with those budgets look like? For one thing, Japan easily could increase its military and equip it with modern ships (like the Atago and Takanami classes of destroyers), submarines (like the Oyashio class), and aircraft (like the F-2). Japan also could easily operate several "Harrier carriers" as well, giving Japan the ability to project power. Japan could also decide to build nukes – and has the ability to do so very quickly (within six months). Japan would have no trouble spending big bucks on arms. The government already spends that kind of money on wasteful, "make work", projects. It's good politics to keep people employed, and it doesn't matter if they are building warships, or highways to nowhere. Such a buildup would make South Korea, China, and other countries in Asia very nervous. For that reason, Kim Jong-Il's recent nuclear tests are going to make him a very unpopular person in East Asia, where old memories of Japan's conduct from 1931-1945 are still fresh. They would much rather that the potential of Japan's military remain potential, and not become realized. China, in particular, doesn't want to see Japan start a buildup, because they will not be able to keep up. |
| Posted by:Steve |
| #18 phil_b - Where art thou? :-) |
| Posted by: .com 2006-10-11 20:29 |
| #17 Or, in the alternative, invest much more heavily in the robotic warrior fields than we have, SPOD. We have only started scratching the surface of UAVs as combat aircraft, unmanned boats/subs as naval fighters, and robots as fighting vehicles/tanks. The Japanese are world leaders in robotics and miniturization, and blend in their advances in fibre optics and secure wireless, and you have an economy built to produce the first true remote access robotic strike force. Besides which, no one cries when a robot goes out like a kamikazee. |
| Posted by: Shieldwolf 2006-10-11 20:24 |
| #16 Well they all hate each other in the region, we are truely outsiders. Whatever Japan does it better start having lots more children, males in particular. |
| Posted by: Sock Puppet of Doom 2006-10-11 19:19 |
| #15 Hmmm... A rising sun flag on a Japanese carrier crusing around in the sea of Japan might be a reminder. That and an alliance (or agreement) between Japan and Taiwan. Might be worth it to see Kimmie-boy piss himself. |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2006-10-11 17:39 |
| #14 In addition to the JSDF fixed wing assets, they have several H-60 variants that are top shelf ASW platforms. That would put a dent in the NKors sub fleet, and torpedos can also be launched against surface combantants. |
| Posted by: USN, ret. 2006-10-11 15:06 |
| #13 China, in particular, doesn't want to see Japan start a buildup, because they will not be able to keep up. Yet, of course, the communist Mandarins are so obsessed with offsetting American regional dominance that they just can't resist letting Kim piss in the punchbowl. One simple question clears everything right up: Who would you trust, a rearmed democratic Japan or communist China? |
| Posted by: Zenster 2006-10-11 15:00 |
| #12 Video is on the mark!!! |
| Posted by: 3dc 2006-10-11 14:45 |
| #11 Japan should up military spending from 1% to 3%. It would still be pretty small chunk of GDP, might spur some growth to get the economy chugging again, and would scare the living crap out of their neighbors. The money can be spent on (a) a true coast guard, peaceful but freeing up the naval (b) Raises all around to increase prestige of the military (c) new weapons systems, most notably the anti-missile type stuff (d) psy-ops that would come up with plans for power-projection projects such as carriers and troop transports that the Japanese would have no intention of buying but which would freak the neighbors out even more. Then sit back and watch the fun and racism. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2006-10-11 13:46 |
| #10 well anon you're better than them i guess. seeing as i doubt they would wish any of us well |
| Posted by: sinse 2006-10-11 13:25 |
| #9 I think most Americans would feel that South Korea is not worth our fighting for. I can't imagine that we'd be willing to shed blood for them. What could possibly be the benefit to us, now that Kim has nukes anyway? Seems to me that the South is own their own. I wish them well. |
| Posted by: anon 2006-10-11 13:14 |
| #8 If NK doesn't want nuclear Bukkake, they'd better stop now. |
| Posted by: Jesing Ebbease3087 2006-10-11 13:04 |
| #7 As with Iran, there is no need for an army because there is no desire to occupy after attacking. I don't think we would attack though -- it's a potential disaster for South Korea. No, just blockade them and let them stew in their own juices (or juche in this case). |
| Posted by: Darrell 2006-10-11 12:23 |
| #6 I read that America can't supply the forces of it army if it were to attack N.Korea because of the wars in Afganistan and Iraq earlier on. So we have a new taker, the US asks japan nicely if they could spend a bit more time on there military and I think the US, Japan, and South Korea, (possibly British forces) could make easy work of N. Korea with minimal losses. and what about China, well even if they won't help attack the North Koreans, do they really want to piss off the Japanese, and is that in there best intrests if they want to defend communism? |
| Posted by: Tom 2006-10-11 11:55 |
| #5 I'm with you, SpecOp35, why should they remember back to 1945, when the west can't remember the Cold War ? |
| Posted by: wxjames 2006-10-11 11:51 |
| #4 I don't think the memories are fresh. In fact, I think all these fools have forgotten how ruthless and deadly efficient the Japanese military can be. No one should have greater trepidation than Koreans and Chinese, yet they do everything they can to taunt the Japanese in the most tranquil period of their history. |
| Posted by: SpecOp35 2006-10-11 11:18 |
| #3 Many contemp WESTERN DD + Frigate warship classes would be called/labeled CRUISERS during the Cold War. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2006-10-11 10:33 |
| #2 Bottom line: Do you really want to piss off a country that can build lots of deadly things as quickly and as well as the Japanese can? China would do well to put down its rabid dog before the Japanese get the weapons assembly lines cranked up... |
| Posted by: Jonathan 2006-10-11 10:19 |
| #1 Sounds about right. |
| Posted by: RWV 2006-10-11 10:18 |