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Home Front: Politix

Big Democratic wins likely on Election Day

2006-10-19

Just 20 days until Election Day, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds approval of the GOP-held Congress is at its lowest mark in 14 years, the Republican Party's favorability rating is at an all-time low and President George W. Bush's approval rating remains mired in the 30s -- all ominous signs for a party trying to maintain control of Congress.

In fact, according to the poll, Republicans are in worse shape on some key measures than Democrats were in 1994, when they lost their congressional majorities. "There is not a single number in here that would suggest the Democrats will not have their best showing in a decade -- and maybe two decades," says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican Bill McInturff.

I dunno. I'm not much for loony conspiracy theories, but if I *was* to entertain one and one only, I'd speculate that these polls are overinflated and will be used to claim "stolen election" when the anticipated Dem tsunami fails to sweep the GOP away. If I paid attention to these things, at any rate.

That's not a loony conspiracy, that's the marching orders at the Daily Kos ...

Yup. The NYT is already on the job, talking about "inexplicable" optimism on the part of Bush and Rove re: the election.

Posted by:Fred

#20 They forget one thing, however. We vote for candidates, not parties here in the good ol' USA.

Sure, you might think that the Repubs and/or Demos are full of it, etc. But most people still vote for the guy or gal who brings home the pork, regardless of how they feel about their party affiliation.

I guess eventually Zogby et al will manage to be right, but I don't think this is one of those times.

Posted by: Swamp Blondie 2006-10-19 18:47

#19 I don't know how the election will turn out, but I look for it to be sufficently close that a record number of contested elections that the party to be in control of the House remains in dispute beyond the first session in January at which time a Speaker should be chosen. It's tough to conduct business without one. Note that there are no constitutionally mandated qualifications, duties, authorities or responsibilities for the Speaker, beyond being third in line for the Presidency and involvement in removing the President under the 25th Amendment; only that the House chooses the Speaker.

Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2006-10-19 18:07

#18 I fear Em is right. Good chance of holding the Senate but the House is a gonner. Luckily the margin won't be enough to give the mBats a working majority. There are enough (tho too few) conservative Democrats to form a working alliance with Republicans to keep the really poisonous shit off the table.

Posted by: Shipman 2006-10-19 17:30

#17 I think the polls are spot on!

Look:

1) Gas prices have plummeted
2) The DJI has set consecutive record highs
3) Unemployment claims have fallen by 10,000
4) The US is near full-employment
5) The US budget deficit has been cut in half due to surging tax revenues
6) The US to-date has not suffered a major terrorist attack since 9/11
7) Dick Cheney to-date, has not eaten a baby on national televison, nor has Donald Rumsfeld skewered a puppy on Fox

For all these reasons - and more! - the GOP Congress deserves the fear and loathing of an offended MainScream Media, and repudiation at the polls by the oppressed citizens of this benighted land.

/sarcasm off

Posted by: mrp 2006-10-19 15:11

#16 If the dickweeds didn't call @ dinnertime, i might be willing to give them some answers, but instead they get ths ound of me hanging up so i can get back to Mrs. Ret's excellent cooking. aregular Martha Stewart she is (w/out so much as a speeding ticket to her name)

Posted by: USN, ret. 2006-10-19 14:13

#15 I tell the pollsters I'm voting for Opus P. Crokus.

Posted by: DarthVader 2006-10-19 13:13

#14 If one was to go back 2 years and look at the pertentage points in the Congressional races I think we could identify races where current incumbents are in jeapordy. If the winning percentage was 5% or less then IMO a lot of those races are up for grabs. Anything over 5% I would expect the incumbent to win. Just my $.02

Posted by: Cheaderhead 2006-10-19 12:19

#13 To clarify, I think the polls are not entirely wrong, I think that there is a lot of disgruntlement about the absolutely unserious Congress. And I think that it is correct to say that GOP support is slipping...and slipping a lot.

But today's "Today" show headlined with the "falling polls" story, the very first guest was Tim Russert, and Matt Lauer was grinning from ear to ear. And it rubs me the wrong way.

I don't think it's going to be as much of a runaway Dem vote as they are gloating about, and I am quite sure there will be much garment-rending and gnashing of teeth as they point to the pre elex polls as 'proof' the 'lections were rigged.

Zogby gleefully joining Err America v2.0 three weeks before the election doesn't inspire much confidence either.

Posted by: Seafarious 2006-10-19 12:05

#12 Yesterday, I read this big explanation on how the polls are 'weighted' for accuracy. However, the pollsters failed to ever mention the possibility that some people actually lie to the pollsters.
Noooooo, people wouldn't do that, would they ?
I would. If only 4 percent of those called lied, then the poll would be off by 8 percent, and basically useless. Most people don't like polls, and I know that about 44 percent simply hang up. But what of those few who want to screw the pollsters ? They stay on and lie through their teeth. Since most people who hate the polls are the smarter, and more conservative among us, the polls are always slanted toward the liberals.
But, the pollsters are in denial about the lying, so they don't weigh the results correctly.

Posted by: wxjames 2006-10-19 11:42

#11 Wow. I'm sure this makes President Kerry and former president Gore very happy...

Posted by: tu3031 2006-10-19 11:17

#10 Leave no room for error. Get out and Vote.

Posted by: mcsegeek1 2006-10-19 11:13

#9 "There is not a single number in here that would suggest the Democrats will not have their best showing in a decade -- and maybe two decades."

Hmmm...not so sure bout that. The Dems need the swing voters and are counting on a shift in the Libertarian vote. Trends aside...that ain't a sure bet. Not to mention, the GOP has just now started to come out swinging. Check out their new Vid. "The Stakes"

Posted by: DepotGuy 2006-10-19 10:56

#8 Exactly, Raj. In fact, Taranto (Opinion Journal) stated that something like 98% of incumbents win their seats. Rove is stating that something like 47 of the Senate Seats are Republican locks already, so we've only gotta win 3 (of the 8) "close" seats to maintain control. I'd actually like to see a 50/50 tie, and then have Cheney come in and cast deciding votes left and right, lol! That'd make them blow their stacks completely. Add to that, that (especially this year's) polls are completely skewed anyways, and the ONLY poll that matters IS Nov. 7.

Posted by: BA 2006-10-19 09:46

#7 Pollsters also don't account for the incumbent factor - 80% of Senate and something like 90+% of House incumbents retain their seats every election. They're just blowing smoke up our asses.

I'll wait for the final poll on Nov. 7th.

Posted by: Raj 2006-10-19 08:21

#6 If you look at all the races in doubt, the Demos have to win ALL of them to take back the House or the Senate. Don't see that happening, especially since the Demos are starting to have candidate problems in some of the closer races. I mean, New Jersey is suddenly in play.

Posted by: Shieldwolf 2006-10-19 04:51

#5 10 of 10 dead people can't be wrong! They will vote Donkey style

Posted by: Captain America 2006-10-19 01:33

#4 3dc - They just fill in the form for you. I'm thinking you're prolly a Donk when they get finished.

Posted by: .com 2006-10-19 00:55

#3 The great Mike Royko, columnist for many years in Chicago, had a rule for handling polls --

-- lie.

However you plan to vote, you tell the pollster the exact opposite. He illustrated this (as I recall) with how he told a pollster that he was voting for Mondale (not Reagan) because Mondale was a man's man who sat tall in the saddle and said what he believed. The pollster just gave up after a while.

Posted by: Steve White 2006-10-19 00:53

#2 I keep getting called by pollsters - tell them I don't believe in the concept of polls and hang up.

Its got to skew their data.

Posted by: 3dc 2006-10-19 00:47

#1 Happens every elex year - Dems supposed to win, then they don't. "Two decades" is about right - thier ideo no longer stands for democracy, libertarianism, societal improvement, or "helping the common mab", but for anti-Rights, anti-Democratic, super-Legalist, super-PC/PDeniable, LIE = TRUTH, "Gummermint in charge of everything + everyone while pretending it isn't", ala HILLARY'S famous "Govt. will give it to you now but later take it away in the name of the common good" speech. GOVERNMENTISTS + ANARCHISTS-FOR-GOVERNMENTISM, TOTALITARIANS + LIBERTARIANS-FOR-TOTALITARIANS, USA UNDER ANTI-SOVEREIGN OWG + SOCIALISM NOW, EXPLAIN TO VOTERS = THE PEOPLE LATER, WHEN THEY FEEL LIKE IT OR WHEN THEY FEEL THE VOTERS DESERVE TO KNOW > you know, what the FOUNDING FATHERS intended and fought a revolution against England for.

Posted by: JosephMendiola 2006-10-19 00:37

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