December 21, 2006: NATO is exploiting the growing brutality of the Taliban to consult more closely with tribal leaders, who are now less likely to back the Taliban. Tribal wars are the norm in this part of the world, and the Taliban represent one faction that wants to rule everyone. NATO is basically taking sides in this tribal war, on the theory that its side represents more people than the Taliban. NATO has more firepower and mobility, and is using that, and the cold weather, to go after the Taliban in the Winter, when Afghan warriors traditionally stay home. The NATO campaign includes dropping pamphlets warning the Taliban to get out of areas where reconstruction projects are underway. This makes the Taliban into the bad guys, because reconstruction is much more popular than the return of Taliban rule. The Taliban, meanwhile, have a plan. The Taliban have made deals with the drug gangs, and gained a powerful ally. The deal is simply assurances that the drug lords will be able to operate as they did when the Taliban ran country in the late 1990s. The Taliban only went through the motions of banning drug activities for one year, when they were in charge. And this was to qualify for some foreign aid. The rest of the time, the Taliban taxed the drug gangs, and didn't otherwise interfere.
Now, with the aid of these "drug taxes", the Taliban can afford to hire thousands of gunmen. By attacking schools and reconstruction projects, the Taliban can keep people poor, ignorant, and easier to control. The literacy rate in southern Afghanistan is under 25 percent, and that suits the Taliban just fine. Long term, the Taliban believe they will win. They may have a point, as the illiteracy, conservatism and poverty have been part of the local landscape for thousands of years. The Taliban stands for the old ways, and believe these new ideas (democracy, education, economic growth), will never catch on.