 Wudda asshat. Actually, I didn't even read it as my tummy isn't good now and I don't want to throw up.
by John F. Kerry
EVERYWHERE I traveled throughout the Middle East this winter, the feeling was inescapable that the region could explode at any time. The threat of three simultaneous civil wars that King Abdullah of Jordan spoke of is real, and perhaps the most imminent danger -- in Lebanon -- is the least understood.
Lost in the shadows of Iraq, the struggle to save the fragile democracy born of the Cedar Revolution has reached a moment of truth. If America does not act now, this key front in the broader struggle between moderates and extremists for the future of the Arab world will be lost -- and the consequences will long be felt throughout the region.
| There's a scary thought -- Kerry gets one right. Of course, for John 'acting' means something different. |
The radicals' ambitions for overthrow move from Prime Minister Fouad Siniora in Lebanon to President Mahmound Abbas in Ramallah to Prime Minister Nouri al- Maliki in Iraq. They are determined to achieve a clean sweep.
| The 'radicals' -- aka, Islamists -- indeed want all three out. But let's not get all gooey-eyed about Abbas, he's a much a thug as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and he's just as dedicated to the destruction of Israel. He's just more incompetent. |
Anyone who has longed for a George Washington or Thomas Jefferson to emerge and lead the fight for democracy in the Middle East should come to Beirut and meet the patriots who have made incredible sacrifices for a free and independent Lebanon.
There is the son of slain former prime minister Rafik Hariri. There is the Cabinet minister whose husband was assassinated soon after becoming president, and the minister of defense, who after 12 surgeries still bears the scars of an assassination attempt. There is the mother of recently slain 34-year-old Lebanese parliamentarian Pierre Gemayel, who said to me simply: "We pay a high price for sharing what you believe in," and ask yourself whether we are paying her the debt owed for our shared beliefs.
| Once again John gets it right. That's two and 2/3's out of three so far. Boggle. |
At the forefront of this struggle is Siniora, the prime minister of Lebanon, who has stood up to a challenge that many extremists thought would bring down his government. Weakened by this summer's war, Siniora is effectively under siege by Hezbollah, which has brought hundreds of thousands of demonstrators to the streets of Bierut and shut down the government with the mass resignation of its ministers.
Siniora is under seige by Hezbollah which is in turn controlled by Syria and, especially, Iran. It's important to state that up front because ignoring that simple fact starts one down the wrong path. To get a proper solution in Lebanon, as Kerry evidently wants, one has to deal with these two countries. Only then does one defang Hezbollah.
And along the way, let's not forget that Lebanon is now 35 to 40% Shi'a. |
To provide the support he needs, we must recognize and adapt to the new realities on the ground.
| Does that mean Kerry recognizes that Iran is the problem? Noooooooo .... |
We've lost 3,000 American lives and invested more than $300 billion in hopes of forcibly birthing democracy in Iraq -- while largely ignoring Lebanon, where democratic institutions already have a foothold. Success there -- and across the Middle East -- ultimately depends more on winning over civilian populations with basic goods and services than defeating armies with sophisticated weapons and technology. New York's street-wise mayor Fiorello LaGuardia proclaimed, "There is no Republican way to clean a street." This is Politics 101: If you don't deliver services, you don't get the support of the people.
| It's hard to deliver basic goods and services when hard boyz are terrorizing the local population. And the local police. And the local politicans. The Hezbollah thugs behave in a manner similar to the gangland thugs of Capone's day: give us what we want or we'll kill you here and now. Takes a mighty brave local pol or copper to stand up to that. You don't have a chance of delivering 'local services' until you put down the goons and private armies that have their own agendas. That takes us right back to Syria and Iran. |
Yet today, the forces of radicalism are doing a far better job than the moderates in making the most basic connections with restive populations. In Lebanon, Iran has seized the opportunity to win over the population by channeling some $500 million in reconstruction funds through Hezbollah -- over twice as much as we have. In fact, Iran is doing more in rebuilding Lebanon than Washington is doing in rebuilding New Orleans.
Nice cheap shot John. New Orleans is held back by even more corrupt local politics. Bother to look next door at Mississippi?
Regardless, Iran is not the savior of the Lebanese people because it's put half-a billion dollars into 'reconstruction' (I'd be willing to bet that the first thing they reconstructed were the Hezbollah fighting bunkers). Iran is the power behind the problem: they throw tokens at the Shi'a population (which has fooled Kerry, surprise) while building and re-building their terror proxy in the region. That's the issue. |
We must change this dynamic by dramatically increasing economic assistance -- and pressing others in the international community to do the same -- and ensuring that Lebanese see that they can count on their elected leaders. And we must redouble our efforts to strengthen the Lebanese military, which has earned the trust of the people but lacks the strength to confront Hezbollah.
| The Lebanese military will fall apart if it challenges Hezbollah. If it manages to confront Hezbollah with any success the Syrians will jump in. Again it gets back to Syria and Iran. |
The key to Lebanon's future lies in getting Syria to truly respect Lebanese sovereignty. The money and weapons that empower Hezbollah come primarily through Syria, which uses proxies like Hezbollah to advance its hegemonic designs. They must be convinced to change course, including by ensuring that UN Resolution 1701 -- which again calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah -- is fully implemented.
| And John's gonna test 'em, just you watch ... |
To test the Syrians directly, as the discredited Baker-Hamilton Commission suggested, Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and I met with President Bashar al- Assad for more than two hours. The conversation confirmed my belief that engagement with Syria could be useful in advancing our objectives across the region. The Syrian leadership will act according to its own self-interest. The challenge is to get Syria's leaders to make a strategic decision to change direction, and shift their allegiance away from Iran.
John bought a lot of codswollop, which ought to tell the average person just how gullible he is. Baby Assad has no incentive whatsoever to be 'constructive' and lots of incentives to keep doing just what he's doing.
First and foremost, anything that lets Lebanon out of the Syrian orbit is a direct threat to his own rule. He could die and like most dictators he doesn't want that. A free, democratic Lebanon is a shining example to his own people who might be emboldened to ask the fatal question: "Mr. Assad, you're an asshat. Who put you in charge?" |
This requires a package of incentives that will provide real benefits for playing a more constructive role and disincentives that will undermine their interests -- if not endanger their survival -- if they do not. These would be implemented incrementally, based on verified facts on the ground.
This is the usual Dhimmicratic approach: incrementalism. It's been a shining success in other countries -- for example, Vietnam. We all remember how incrementalism brought the North Vietnamese to their knees.
Incrementalism is the James Baker way, the 'realist' way, the way we in the West think we ought to treat with dictators since we would feel the pain of an incremental approach. The problem with it is a basic one: dictators don't feel pain the same way we do. A pluralistic, open democracy is open to all sorts of riffs, opinions and ideas that move and shape the public attitudes towards their government, and politicans like Kerry are exquisitely sensitive to those tides and eddies.
Whereas, dictators aren't: anyone with a contrary opinion ends up in a prison, or dead. There are no open displays of defiance. Everything's underground. So 'incremental' pressure on a thug simply forces said thug to double-down on his population: any sign of weakness emboldens a challenger lurking in the wings. Again, dictators enjoy living as the top cheese; they aren't about to permit anything that loosens their grip on power. So they aren't going to respond to an 'incremental' approach. |
This comprehensive approach, similar to the one used with North Korea and Iran, ...
| Your party opposes the 'incremental' approach with both countries as done by President Bush. You personally are on record opposing the six-way talks with North Korea, and you personally are on record opposing any incremental stepping up of pressure on Iran. Let's keep the record straight here. |
... must include the full participation of moderate Arab countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia -- which, like Syria, have largely Sunni populations -- as well as Turkey.
Egypt and Saudi Arabia are not moderate Sunni Arab nations. Anyone who believes otherwise doesn't understand the region. The Saudis are terrorist enablers determined to spread their austere brand of Islam around the world. They're succeeding. Egypt is another thug state about to become a thug dynastic state. Mubarek & Son have no intention of working with us to bring peace to the region for the reasons previously noted -- first, they enjoy living and second, they enjoy their power.
Jordan is a 'moderate' country only in comparsion. King Abdullah -- who also enjoys life and power -- is riding the tiger, trying to keep ahold of a country that is thoroughly infiltrated with islamist thought and is 70% palestinian to boot. He'll talk about reform and moderation but in the end he'll do whatever it takes to stay in power. Our way almost guarantees a bad outcome for him. |
There is no guarantee that this approach will save Lebanon and turn Syria into a positive force in the region -- but the current policy only guarantees more of the same.
| The current policy has been enfeebled by people like you. What we ought to do, as people here at Rantburg know, is put a blunt choice in front of Assad: Teheran is nice this time of year, and perhaps you, your family and your supporters ought to hightail it there before we throw you out. Syria would be a mess and a basket-case for a while, but we could manage that, and it would ensure Lebanon's freedom. |
Lebanon teeters on the brink of disaster -- but its leaders refuse to surrender. As Amine Gemayel, the former president of Lebanon, said in explaining why he is running to replace his son in Parliament, "We keep going. We keep fighting. We keep struggling." The question is whether we will be a real partner in this struggle.
| The best and only thing we can do as a 'real partner' is to deal with Syria and Iran. Anything else fails the test of seriousness. |
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