#3 Kadima keeps beating the odds. Every other centrist third party attempt - Rafi, DMC, Derech Shlishi, Merkaz, failed. DMC was the only one to get many seats, but they didnt get a PM, and they fell apart.
Kadima, even under Sharon, was expected to be another failure, another Rafi. After Sharons illness, it was expected to disappear. Instead it elected a PM.
So Olmert is gone. Where do Livni and the other Likud defectors go? Back to Likud, to enjoy the tender mercies of Bibi and the Likud Central Committee? To Labour? No, theyre stuck. Where does Peres go? Back to Labour? I dont think so? And where do Kadima voters go? To a Likud led by Bibi that wont negotiate even with Abbas? To a Labour that has put cabinet seats ahead of policy considerations?
Unless Labour nominates someone very good to succeed Peretz, someone who can win the centrist voters without alienating the base, I think Kadima survives. They do poorly in the next election, but they survive. And are around to come back next time.
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