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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
First nighttime Arrow missile defense test successful
2007-02-12
In face of Iran's effort to obtain nuclear weapons, the Israel Air Force successfully conducted its 15th test of the Arrow missile defense system on Sunday night. Officials said the Arrow was capable of intercepting Iranian nuclear missiles. Defense officials explained that the test, the first conducted at night, was unique since it was held under extreme circumstances and was meant to "meet future threats to the State of Israel."

The test was overseen by the Defense Ministry's Homa Missile Defense Agency and was conducted at the IAF Palmahim Base south of Ashdod. It was the first time that the missile interceptor used was made up of parts of which were also built by Boeing in the United States.

The last time the Arrow was tested was in December 2005, and defense officials said that Sunday night's test was not connected to the Iranian nuclear threat but was part of the periodic tests the missile defense system undergoes. The launcher used in the test was an upgraded version and was fitted with active protection that defends the system against enemy attacks. "The Arrow has once again proven its ability to defend Israel against current and future threats," explained a senior defense official involved in the test. According to the official, the Arrow underwent periodic upgrades and developments so it could successfully counter missiles under development in enemy countries.

The test took place at 9:18 PM when the Arrow 2 interceptor took off towards a Black Sparrow test missile, fired by an F-15 fighter jet, and designed to simulate an incoming Iranian Shihab missile headed toward Israel. The Green Pine Radar located and identified the incoming missile and the Citroen Tree battle management center related the information to the Arrow 2 battery.
Posted by:Fred

#15  AP, I wouldn't try to guess that Olmert thinks. But I can imagine that advice he gets.
The probability that MM use nukes on Israel is less than unity. The probability that Israel, and most Diaspora Jews, will be destroyed by the "indignant humanity" if we pre-empt Iran is unity.
Posted by: gromgoru   2007-02-12 23:59  

#14  My point is that Olmert, who is leader of the Israeli government, is facing a situation, which, when dragging out, will put the odds more against Israel. If Israel waits for Iran to build up and shoot first, then activate the defense system, then Israel is playing the odds very close, betting the farm, so to speak.

With regard to the political situation and the advisability of holding off an attack against the MMs of Iran, that's Israel's call. It still does not change the very real catastrophic consequences of an Iranian missile attack.

We can sit here in the relative comfort of our NA continent, and to some extent Europe. We can play these "what-if" games smugly from the comfort of our homes, but Israel is playing for keeps. One well placed hit, the right meteorological conditions, and Israel is uninhabitable.

Israel is the canary in the coal mine.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2007-02-12 22:12  

#13  Arrow has both radar and infrared seekers. Works best if the Iranians don't launch at 10AM.
Posted by: ed   2007-02-12 17:06  

#12  I fail to see where night or day makes any difference to a missle.

Well, some of them have pale skin and sunburn easily in the harsh glare of day. On a more serious note, you wouldn't expect it to matter to radar, but if they are also using some sort of electro-optical sensor, I can see (heh) it making a difference.
Posted by: SteveS   2007-02-12 16:46  

#11  Iran has 3000 shihab missiles?
Posted by: liberalhawk   2007-02-12 14:01  

#10  32, at least, LH. So now, if Iran has 2 nukes and 3000 decoys, how many Arrows do you need?
Posted by: gromgoru   2007-02-12 13:45  

#9  "Do you know how many Arrows you need to fire to assure 90% success"

No, I dont, and await eagerly posts by the technically more knowledgeable. OTOH I dont know you need 90% success to make Iran uncertain as to the "success" of their attack. If they have two genuine bombs, and a few dozen decoys, and you get 50% hits, theres a non-zero probability youve killed both of the genuine bombs.
Posted by: liberalhawk   2007-02-12 13:39  

#8  AP, exactly what you expect Olmert to do? The only sure way is to wack Iran now. But that would make Israel target for the rest of the World.
Posted by: gromgoru   2007-02-12 13:37  

#7  AP, exactly what you expect Olmert to do? The only sure way is to wack Iran now. But that would make Israel target for the rest of the World.
Posted by: gromgoru   2007-02-12 13:36  

#6  OTOH, if youre Iran, and you have say two nukes, and you fire them both plus say 30 decoys, and the two real nukes get hit

Do you know how many Arrows you need to fire to assure 90% success, or the "liberal" part in LiberalHawk stands for education?
Posted by: gromgoru   2007-02-12 13:34  

#5  "You can have all the Arrows that you want, but in an exchange, Iran can have hundreds of missiles firing, many of them decoys. Only one nuke needs to get through to ruin Israel as a habitable place. Israel, on the other hand, must stop every one."

OTOH, if youre Iran, and you have say two nukes, and you fire them both plus say 30 decoys, and the two real nukes get hit, youve done diddly squat to Israel, and you may very well see some really bad consequences to Iran. MIGHT make you think twice.

An ideal strategy? No, but given the problems with all the others, worth pursuing.
Posted by: liberalhawk   2007-02-12 13:29  

#4  The only solution is to make it very clear to Iranians that if even a bird come from Persia there is no more Mecca or Medina. Plus of course no Quom.
Posted by: JFM   2007-02-12 11:17  

#3  You can have all the Arrows that you want, but in an exchange, Iran can have hundreds of missiles firing, many of them decoys. Only one nuke needs to get through to ruin Israel as a habitable place. Israel, on the other hand, must stop every one.

Missile defense, though necessary for Israel, is not sufficient to protect against the Iranian threat. So what is the strategy, Mr. Olmert? Better not be in the style of the half-executed plan against Hizb'Allah in Lebanon.
Posted by: Alaska Paul   2007-02-12 10:54  

#2  I fail to see where night or day makes any difference to a missle.
Posted by: Redneck Jim   2007-02-12 10:10  

#1  Successful missile tests; unexplained earthquake under the Dead Sea (area close to Dimona)!! Hmmmm!
Posted by: smn   2007-02-12 02:13  

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