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| Iraq |
| Strategy Page: Pssst! The good guys are winning! |
| 2007-02-16 |
| Most people believe al Qaeda in Iraq is finished. After boasting last Fall that they would establish a safe zone in western Iraq, and failing to do anything close to that, the Islamic terrorists lost whatever credibility they had left. Most of the terrorist bombings these days are the work of Iraqi Sunni Arab organizations, who still believe that if you make the Iraqi Shia Arabs mad enough, they will get so nasty that neighboring Sunni Arab nations will feel compelled to invade. This plan has split the Sunni Arab nationalists, mainly because the invasion shows no sign of happening, and the brighter terrorists point out that the Saudi army is unlikely to win against the Americans. In a trend that began two years ago, Sunni Arab factions are continuing to battle each other. U.S. troops stand aside when they encounter "Red-on-Red" fighting, then deal with the winner. Standard doctrine calls for US troops to withdraw out of the line of fire, occupy a secure location from which the engagement may be observed, and make popcorn. Meanwhile, the Iraqi Shia Arab militias, especially the Sadr forces (the Mahdi Army), have lost whatever unity and discipline they once had. When your #1 leader runs away and leaves you behind to die gloriously for the lost cause, it has a bad effect on morale. Factionalism has taken over as several of Sadr's lieutenants compete for popularity and territory by driving Sunni Arabs out of Baghdad neighborhoods. Most of Iraq's Sunni Arabs have been chased from their homes since 2003, and that process has accelerated in the last year. The Iraqi Sunni Arabs are quite wealthy compared to Iraqi Shia, and the Shia gangs have been fighting each other over the loot, and the power. Gang war, literally, because many of the militiamen moonlight as gangsters (or vice versa). While the number of terror bombings has been declining in the past year, the crime rate has not, and most people in central Iraq are looking forward to the "Battle for Baghdad." Brigades of troops are arriving from the Kurdish north and Shia south, and more American troops can be seen on the streets. There are more raids in Baghdad. But all the average Iraqi wants is safer streets, fewer kidnappings and a little peace and quiet. Just like everyone else. Realizing that that kind of paradise is not likely to be found in the Middle East, Baghdad has been suffering a major brain drain in the past year, with the most educated fleeing for foreign countries. Europe and North America are preferred destinations, but any place with a lower crime rate will do. Which is evidence of the universality of certain aspects of human nature, not of an "unwinnable quagmire." |
| Posted by:Mike |
| #21 I would believe that we had the full will to win when the Marines shoot Murtha. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2007-02-16 08:24 |
| #20 WILCO, Frank. I will send you a copy of my email after I do that tonight. Grrrrr. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2007-02-16 18:30 |
| #19 Reply to Harvey and the radio station that distributes it. Provide cites. FORCE them to acknowledge his perfidy |
| Posted by: Frank G 2007-02-16 18:06 |
| #18 Closh Cheatle9268---Re: Paul Harvey. I heard the same thing this morning. I started feeling the boiler pressure rising at an alarming rate. I started focusing on breathing so the radio would survive. I am really surprised and angered by what Harvey said. Murtha is a seditious clown that shoots off his mouth. Take a look at what he said about the Marines in the brig at Camp Pentelton before they were even charged with murder. Totally inappropriate, totally out of line. I will stop there before I get a trip to the sinktrap. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2007-02-16 17:42 |
| #17 Dunnigan should produce a new version of the Quick and Dirty Guide to War because the last edition dates from a decade ago. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2007-02-16 16:48 |
| #16 I wasn't advocating it, I was saying that we don't have the public will to win this war until the traitors are taken care of first. I know many a marine that if they could do it, they would. They would have arrested the Murtha idiot and/or strung him up back in WWII. |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2007-02-16 15:14 |
| #15 Dunnigan's got more sources than God. This is the same Jim Dunnigan of Strategy & Tactics magazine fame (a wargame in every issue). Back in the day S&T used to be "it" for accurate, interesting, and involving wargames. The Pentagon, it is said, and other military institutions, used to use S&T wargames for training purposes (one of the their games "The Next War" was said to have been modelled in accordance with Pentagon wishes and "NATO Division Commander" was said to have been used as a training tool for future theater commanders). Dunnigan's got sources in the Pentagon, in the gaming community, in the intelligence community, in the line officers and soldiers, and a lot more. I'd trust his information way before I trusted anything coming from almost any other source. |
| Posted by: FOTSGreg 2007-02-16 15:04 |
| #14 On the sinktrap: guaranteed visit there if you advocate the killing of Americans. That's a bright-line issue for all of the moderators. It's wrong, it's not appropriate, and it potentially sets us up for real trouble (e.g., with law enforcement). Don't do it. Repeat: don't do it. You want bin-Laden whacked, the mods are with you. Advocate the death of an American politican/public figure/goof-ball, no matter how odious, and it's sinktrap land. Or banning. I hope I'm making the appropriate impression here. We simply cannot and will not allow it on the Burg. |
| Posted by: Steve White 2007-02-16 15:01 |
| #13 I thought the insanity of the 60s and early 70s were forever buried in the "Lessons Learned" of how you DO NOT conduct a war. Yet, here we are again. |
| Posted by: anymouse 2007-02-16 12:28 |
| #12 Kind of reminds me of Michael Moore's Detroit. Sometime's it amazes me what you can learn on this board. Can you imagine if Fred was running the MSM? LOL! Hell we would have invaded Iran and France by now. |
| Posted by: Icerigger 2007-02-16 12:25 |
| #11 Back in 80's in college I stumbled across A Quick and Dirty Guide to War from Jim Dunnigan of Strategypage, and it was an interesting look at the various conflicts around the world. He updated the book every 5 yrs or so after that, and I would check the new revisions out from the library to check out his updates. He was right more often than wrong (although he hedged his bets in most cases with enough alternative views that *something* was probably going to be correct). He also was working on a 5 or 10 year time horizon, so when he says "someone is winning" he was talking over the long haul, not specifically about individual skirmishes. My opinion is that he has decent sources (better than I have or the MSM lets on, such as Austin Bay) and that he is right more often than not, although he probably has a soft spot for the home team that isn't properly characterizing the MSM's influence on the US voters. |
| Posted by: mft 2007-02-16 11:59 |
| #10 I got a sinktrap visit about 6 months ago, it seemed benign to me, i've posted worse since and no more visits, I guess whoever was moderating that day had a bad morning? |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2007-02-16 11:44 |
| #9 They are losing where it matters: in American public opinion. Absolutely true. The WOT & OIF are doomed. I heard Paul Harvey today call Murtha pro-war and a 'gentle Catholic grandfather' who 'avoids the limelight'. Gag! |
| Posted by: Closh Cheatle9268 2007-02-16 11:14 |
| #8 No they aren't. They are losing where it matters: in American public opinion. |
| Posted by: JFM 2007-02-16 11:01 |
| #7 I don't usually agree with LH (as he well knows) but he's got a point here: Strategypage is consistently optimistic even when optimism is not warranted. For the time being, I'm taking about as much salt with Strategypage postings as I do with stories from Debka. |
| Posted by: Jonathan 2007-02-16 09:58 |
| #6 then deal with the winner. Standard doctrine calls for US troops to withdraw out of the line of fire, occupy a secure location from which the engagement may be observed, and make popcorn. This war can't last forever, boys. There is a limited supply of popcorn and virgins to go round. |
| Posted by: Excalibur 2007-02-16 09:50 |
| #5 Wow, I think that is a new record for me! |
| Posted by: DarthVader 2007-02-16 09:31 |
| #4 1. Ive heard alot of good news from Strat Page over the last 3 years. Does anyone track their old punditry? 2. At least until the surge began, the alleged weakness of the insurgency had not sufficed to reduce the death toll from bombings and torture-killings in Baghdad, or nationally, which was as high as ever. If SP wants to be taken seriously they should reconcile this. 3. Nonetheless, the death toll HAS declined in the last few days, with the surge really getting going in a big way. The challenge is going to be converting that into longer lasting gains. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2007-02-16 09:27 |
| #3 Darth, I'm jealous. I have yet to have a post that earned a trip to the sinktrap. |
| Posted by: Mike N. 2007-02-16 09:20 |
#2
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| Posted by: DarthVader 2007-02-16 08:24 |
| #1 Please, don't confuse Lard Ass Murtha with facts. |
| Posted by: doc 2007-02-16 08:14 |