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| Israel-Palestine-Jordan | |
| The middle of nowhere | |
| 2007-05-07 | |
Edward Luttwak, senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington DC Why are middle east experts so unfailingly wrong? The lesson of history is that men never learn from history, but middle east experts, like the rest of us, should at least learn from their past mistakes. Instead, they just keep repeating them. The first mistake is "five minutes to midnight" catastrophism. The late King Hussein of Jordan was the undisputed master of this genre. Wearing his gravest aspect, he would warn us that with patience finally exhausted the Arab-Israeli conflict was about to explode, that all past conflicts would be dwarfed by what was about to happen unless, unless… And then came the remedy—usually something rather tame when compared with the immense catastrophe predicted, such as resuming this or that stalled negotiation, or getting an American envoy to the scene to make the usual promises to the Palestinians and apply the usual pressures on Israel. We read versions of the standard King Hussein speech in countless newspaper columns, hear identical invocations in the grindingly repetitive radio and television appearances of the usual middle east experts, and are now faced with Hussein's son Abdullah periodically repeating his father's speech almost verbatim. What actually happens at each of these "moments of truth"—and we may be approaching another one—is nothing much; only the same old cyclical conflict which always restarts when peace is about to break out, and always dampens down when the violence becomes intense enough. The ease of filming and reporting out of safe and comfortable Israeli hotels inflates the media coverage of every minor affray. But humanitarians should note that the dead from Jewish-Palestinian fighting since 1921 amount to fewer than 100,000—about as many as are killed in a season of conflict in Darfur. | |
| Posted by:Steve White |
| #9 There is a big push at NRC to grant licenses for new nuke plants. The initial ones are for new reactors on existing sites or at sites that have already been approved. The process "should" be easier since the nutroots have to support it to stop global warming. |
| Posted by: remoteman 2007-05-07 20:30 |
| #8 I read this morning's paper that the Nuclear Regulatory Commission expects to fast track construction and operating licenses for 28 standard-design reactors at 19 sites by 2009 most in the Southeast and Southwest. Brown's Ferry is about to be restarted after years. The nuclear program is being resurected if the donks don't screw it up. |
| Posted by: JohnQC 2007-05-07 19:55 |
| #7 Finally, reach a consensus that Islam is not a religion, but a subversive political movement. Outlaw its practice in western society. Deport any non-compliers back to their desert. Confine them in their playground and slowly starve them to nonexistence. How pathetic that our Kool-Aid guzzling politicians will find this most important step to be the very hardest to take. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2007-05-07 16:01 |
| #6 This is a solution to the Arab Muslim problem if the West gets off its collective asses and does the correct things. Replace oil as the engine of commerce. How ? Look to our French friends. Get nuclear power on board as major energy source. Their supply is 80% nuclear, heading to 90% in next decade. They have solved the waste problem all the enviro fools are crying about by impleneting reprocessing and feeding this MOX fuel into breeder reactors. The solution is to use the maximum potential energy of the fuel before confining it to storage depots for final decay. Next, autos must run on electricity as primary source. The big step is reliable batteries. MIT has just made a giant leap in this area which is causing GM to again look at 2nd generation electric called Volt. Ethanol is on the way for a while to come. This is good for US. We'll have plenty of corn for demestic consumption. Only exports will fall. Good. Make the Arabs pay top price for imported food stocks. How much do they import ? 100%. Finally, reach a consensus that Islam is not a religion, but a subversive political movement. Outlaw its practice in western society. Deport any non-compliers back to their desert. Confine them in their playground and slowly starve them to nonexistence. |
| Posted by: Woozle Elmeter2970 2007-05-07 11:58 |
| #5 “The operational mistake that Middle East experts keep making is the failure to recognize that backward societies must be left alone…” It’s been said that it’s wise not to attempt to teach a pig how to sing because they can’t carry a tune and always resent you for trying. |
| Posted by: DepotGuy 2007-05-07 10:47 |
| #4 Exactly. Luttwak is an excellent thinker... BUT he fails to take into account nuclear weapons - the great equalizer as far as humanity's incompetents are concerned - let alone potentially far more destructive weaponized smallpox and the like. We do not have the option of ignoring the islamic plague ideology and should take steps to declaw them for good. Take the oil, smash their capitals and glassify their "holy" sites. After we hang the first and second batch of whiners and traitors at home we can get back to life. |
| Posted by: Excalibur 2007-05-07 10:28 |
| #3 I agree about 95% with the author, the only thing he has missed is the almost universal blood lust among the middle eastern tyrants for nuclear weapons. With them they dream of holding the world hostage and violently spreading their vile seed to adjacent lands. Not to mention crushing internal resistance at will while holding off the world community by making themselves "invasion proof". |
| Posted by: bigjim-ky 2007-05-07 08:28 |
| #2 The late King Hussein of Jordan was the undisputed master of this genre. Wearing his gravest aspect, he would warn us that with patience finally exhausted the Arab-Israeli conflict was about to explode, that all past conflicts would be dwarfed by what was about to happen unless, unless… It will be this sort of incessant brinkmanship in combination with habitual Muslim overreaching that eventually shall spell Islam’s doom. They will cry “wolf” one too many times with typical predictions of Dire Consequences™. In response, the West will either finally take them at their word and pre-empt all further unpleasantness with one definitive barrage of nuclear missiles or—in a case of supremely benign neglect—fail to make whatever necessary intervention was needed as warring Muslim factions unleash weapons of mass destruction upon each other. Either way, the problem will no longer exist with all further Islamic aggression and cupidity at a permanent end. Yes, it would be nice if Israelis and Palestinians could settle their differences, but it would do little or nothing to calm the other conflicts in the middle east from Algeria to Iraq, or to stop Muslim-Hindu violence in Kashmir, Muslim-Christian violence in Indonesia and the Philippines, Muslim-Buddhist violence in Thailand, Muslim-animist violence in Sudan, Muslim-Igbo violence in Nigeria, Muslim-Muscovite violence in Chechnya … Hey! What about the Muslim-Esquimaux violence. How could he possibly overlook that? Exactly the same mistake keeps being made by the fraternity of middle east experts. They persistently attribute real military strength to backward societies whose populations can sustain excellent insurgencies but not modern military forces. Cultural and moral relativism at its finest. Now the Mussolini syndrome is at work over Iran. All the symptoms are present, including tabulated lists of Iran's warships, despite the fact that most are over 30 years old; of combat aircraft, many of which (F-4s, Mirages, F-5s, F-14s) have not flown in years for lack of spare parts; and of divisions and brigades that are so only in name. There are awed descriptions of the Pasdaran revolutionary guards, inevitably described as "elite," who do indeed strut around as if they have won many a war, but who have actually fought only one—against Iraq, which they lost. Spot fucking on! Decap strikes are what we need. It is not hard to defeat Arab countries, but it is mostly useless. Violence can work to destroy dangerous weapons but not to induce desired changes in behaviour. More proof of how important a decapitation strategy is. Screw any occupation. the peoples of the middle east should finally be allowed to have their own history—the one thing that middle east experts of all stripes seem determined to deny them. Only if that “history” does not include weapons of mass destruction or nuclear technology of any kind. excluding Israel, per capita patent production of countries in the middle east is one fifth that of sub-Saharan Africa. SMACKDOWN! That’s gotta hurt. the entire middle east generated under 4 per cent of global GDP in 2006—less than Germany. SMACK, again! Luttwak is dead nuts accurate in nearly everything save his worrisome underestimation of Islamic hostility and aggression against the West. As David D. has noted in his list of options, containment is a failed policy and much more serious levels of intervention are required. Luttwak’s analysis is comprehensive proof of just how appropriate a decapitating strike against Iran’s mullahcracy would be. All in all, a fantastic appraisal of exactly what is so wrong and nearly incurable about the Middle East. Only the demise of Islam as a whole can possibly bring about the revolutionary changes needed for this massive cesspit of barbarity to cleanse itself and begin anew. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2007-05-07 01:45 |
| #1 Superb article - 'really got me thinking. I suspect that the author is largely correct. If we could prevent hordes of Middle Eastern refugees from failed societies from inundating our shores, we could just ignore the entire middle eastern region, other than as a source of petroleum. Thus - our only strategic aim should be to prevent the Middle Eastern "rot" from infecting productive societies. Too bad that the scum breed like cockroaches. That is the real problem. And countries such as Sweden, Holland, and France will be the first to collapse under the weight of the useless immigrant hordes. Perhaps that will serve as the warning call to other Western nations, before the succumb. |
| Posted by: Lone Ranger 2007-05-07 00:59 |