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Iraq
US scholars propose Iraq partition
2007-07-06
With President George W BushÂ’s war strategy clouded by limited results and mounting casualties, two scholars are proposing a partition plan that would divide Iraq into three main regions. The authors, Edward P Joseph of Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and Michael OÂ’Hanlon, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, are hoping to draw the attention of Bush administration policymakers.
Wonder if they bothered to ask any Iraqis?
The three main spheres proposed in the report would be Shiite, Sunni and Kurdistan. The Kurds already control Kurdistan. The scholars are circulating their suggestions within the Bush administration.

Sen. Joseph Biden, who is a Democratic presidential candidate and living proof that not every small state has two worthy citizens to send to the Senate chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has sought for months to attract support for a partition plan he formulated with Leslie Gelb, former head of the private Council on Foreign Relations. It would establish a federal system of government in Iraq.

The idea has gained some attention in Congress but has not been embraced by the Bush administration. “The time may be approaching when the only hope for a more stable Iraq is a soft partition of the country,” the report by Joseph and O’Hanlon said.

Administration strategy is geared toward building up a strong central government. But US public support is declining, and according to some observers, Iraq may be on the verge of civil war.
Then again, it may be on the verge of stomping out al-Qaeda and co-opting the Sunni tribal chiefs, and isolating some of the more goofy Shi'as.
Under the plan, Iraqis would divide the country into three main regions. Each would assume primary responsibility for its own security and governance, as Iraqi Kurds already have in Kurdistan. “Creating such a structure could prove to be difficult and risky,” the report said. “However, when measured against the alternatives - continuing to police an ethnic-sectarian war, or withdrawing and allowing the conflict to escalate - the risks of soft partition appear more acceptable.”
Turns out the Iraqi constitution already allows for considerable regional goverance, which the Kurds are exploting to the fullest. This report is about a year behind.
Joseph said in an interview Tuesday: “We have got to find a way through.” He said the time had come to decide whether the strategy of promoting a strong central government in Baghdad made sense. “The vision we put forward is not a prescription for immediate withdrawal,” Joseph said. “It does involve substantial commitments of US troops.” “However,” he added, “we anticipate a substantial reduction in US casualties.”

The proposal would require the acquiescence of major political factions in Iraq. There would be substantial, voluntary movement in mixed, volatile areas. For instance, Saddam and his predecessors deliberately settled Arab Shiites and Sunnis in Kirkuk to disadvantage the Kurds, Joseph said. Arabs settled there have expressed willingness to move out if they are provided with housing and a livelihood elsewhere.

In Baghdad, rather than keeping vulnerable minorities in tense parts of the capital, Joseph said, “It might make sense to move them voluntarily to places where they would be safer.” Among the Shiites, Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim of the Supreme Islamic Council has called for a Shiite region for years. But Muqtada al-Sadr and others in the Shiite leadership oppose it, as do the major Sunni politicians.
And there you have it: the nerve of Iraqis to fail to embrace the gorgeous plan!
Posted by:Fred

#8  The situation where Dar assumes it natural state of "every tribe/family/clan for itself" is not inevitable. There are two other options.
(1) They conquer the World and use modern weapons to sterilize it.
(2) We exterminate them.
I don't like #2, and I really against #1.
Posted by: gromgoru   2007-07-06 11:16  

#7  Take out Iran and we wouldn't even have to think of partition.

Some deflective thinking at werk hier. Agree, Iran must be dealt with, either now or later. Thank you Jimmy Carter. But to think that the Iran issue resolved will result in these tribal phue*hs laying down their weapons and becoming civilized is unrealistic. They've had thousands of years of whacking each other. Little will stop them now. Saddam's rule was just a 30 year time out.
Posted by: Besoeker   2007-07-06 10:12  

#6  Bingo. McZoids got the answer. Take out Iran and we wouldn't even have to think of partition.
Posted by: JohnQC   2007-07-06 08:39  

#5  phil_b is right, for all intents and purposes there are already 2 partitions, Kurdistan and everybody else. I think Churchill would probably agree, a united Iraq is a pipe dream. Best to push for a more realistic solution. Not saying a three partition Iraq is the best solution. I am just saying a unified Iraq is not going to happen any time soon, not even within 10 years. Stopping Iran wouldn't solve the problem either (although it would help a bit). There are still tons of weapon caches we haven't found and neutralized. So really stopping Iran would probably only temporarily help the situation.
Posted by: AllahHateMe   2007-07-06 08:16  

#4  Take out Iran and we wouldn't even have to think of partition.
Posted by: McZoid   2007-07-06 06:44  

#3  There will be partition of Iraq. It remains to be seen how much is by negotiation and how much is at gunpoint, and how it is dressed up - strengthened regional autonomy.

The Kurds already know this and doubtless know where their future borders will lie. The Shiia may be waking up to it. The Sunni have get beyond wanting to control all of Iraq to avoid being the big losers.
Posted by: phil_b   2007-07-06 06:24  

#2  As usual, washington solutions to promote more misery where there is enough already, Washington DC is on their final seal also.
Posted by: newc   2007-07-06 04:59  

#1  We have an enlightened Churchhill to thank for Iraq. He was confident they could all just sit down and get along. Here's a not often published quote form the cigar chomper that may amuse you:

"I am storngly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilized trives" Winston Churchill Iraq: From Sumer to Sudan, by Geoff Simons.

T.E. Lawrence was a huge proponent of the "gas" option for these waring, tribal bastards as well.

Unfortunately I'm afraid the only thing we learn from the study of "lessons learned" is that we learn nothing from them.
Posted by: Besoeker   2007-07-06 02:48  

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