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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Potential Water Conflicts in the Middle East
2007-07-07

These are the article's last few paragraphs. RTWT for even more insights into this calamity in the making.

Israel and the Palestinians

The limited surface resources have led to widespread scarcity of the fresh water resources, resulting in a heavy reliance on groundwater as the major source for various uses. The contribution of surface water to the overall water balance is limited and marginal. "Nowhere are the problems of water governance as starkly demonstrated as in the Occupied Palestinian Territories." According to the UNDP report, "Palestinians experience one of the highest levels of water scarcity in the world." This scarcity is attributed to physical scarcity and political governance.

The report estimates that, on a per capita basis, people living in the Occupied Palestinian Territories have access to 320 cubic meters of water annually, "one of the lowest levels of water availability in the world and well below the threshold of absolute scarcity." The Israeli population, which is about twice the size of the Palestinian population, uses seven and a half times the amount of water used by the Palestinians. The discrepancy in the use of water has to do with politics as well as with life style, the ratio of urban population and the levels of economic development.

Any future settlement between Israel and the Palestinians must address the issue of water. The UNDP report recommends the 1994 peace agreement between Israel and Jordan as a model for Israel and the Palestinians. The agreement allows Jordan to store winter waters in Lake Tiberias [Lake Kinneret]; at the same time, it allows Israel to use, on a rental basis, a number of water wells in Jordan to irrigate Israeli agriculture.

The report also refers to a regional initiative for regional cooperation. The Middle East Desalinization Research Center, based in Muscat, Oman, has been successfully promoting multilateral research into effective desalinization techniques for more than a decade. Its council has representatives from the European Commission, the U.S., Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian National Authority.

Virtual Water Trade

Some of the findings of the UNDP report are both fascinating and disturbing, none more so than the observation that it takes 11,000 liters of water-roughly the daily amount available to 500 people living in an Urban slum-to produce a single hamburger. Countries can reduce water stress by importing cereals and grains and, hence, the water imbedded in them. Stated differently, by importing cereals countries save the water, often in shrinking quantities, they would otherwise use to produce their own cereals. To produce their own with the use of scarce water resources, would drive many countries into the equivalency of water bankruptcy. Putting to best practice the principle of "comparative advantage," water-poor countries must rely on water rich countries to supply them with their grains and even their beef.

Conclusion

As the competition for water between a growing population and agriculture intensifies, it is certain that the issue will be settled in favor of the population, driving many countries in the Middle East into a growing dependency for their grains and cereals on countries, mostly democratic and liberal, for their survival. The "virtual" water trade could become a "real" threat to the security and independence of the importing countries much as these same countries feel threatened by their dependence on oil from non-democratic countries.

Water will remain one of the most volatile issues in the Middle East and the source of potentially serious conflicts. The oil rich countries have resolved their water shortage through desalination. Israel is moving in that direction as well. Countries with more restricted financial resources such as Syria, Jordan, Morocco and Yemen are constrained from going through the desalination path. Rapidly growing population and a trend toward urbanization will heighten water shortages and exacerbate potential political or military conflicts.
Water is the key to war or peace. Borders can be redrawn, refugees resettled, trade barriers can be removed and agriculture reformed and made more efficient. But water will still be required to meet basic human needs. Population growth and a shift toward urbanization will render these needs even greater in the future.

The entire article is a fascinating examination of the role water plays in Middle Eastern politics. Nowhere is it a more contentious subject than with the Israelis and Palestinians. The conclusion above notes some truly momentous shifts that are taking place as water supplies increasingly are diverted from agricultural use over to public consumption. Inadequate waste water treatment or plain dumping of raw sewage, salt accumulation in arable soil, intrusion of seawater into aquifers and industrial effluent pollution all play a serious role in reducing available drinking water supplies.

Insufficient attention has been focused upon the Palestinians and their lackluster efforts to create infrastructure in lieu of armaments. The diversion of sewage piping into rocket manufacturing highlights their irresponsibility with respect to water management. It should come as no shock then that the Palestinians experience some of the “highest levels of water scarcity in the world”. What remains far less publicized is that their water poverty is largely self-imposed. Through their irresponsible conduct they endanger not only themselves but the water supply of other nations as well.

Totally unsurprising is the fact that Palestinian water mismanagement has the greatest negative impact upon Israel. Dumping of their raw sewage into the Mediterranean threatens intake quality and performance of Israeli desalination plants. Excessive pumping from deep level aquifers is allowing seawater intrusion to ruin them for drinking purposes. As hostile Arab nations undergo water depletion, their abandonment of farming makes them vulnerable to those that export the cereal grains they are becoming more dependent upon. These grain exporters are usually Western countries that are growing increasingly intolerant of Islamic terrorism. They eventually could impose mass starvation simply by halting food sales to MME (Muslim Middle East).

It defies comprehension that so much of the MME routinely antagonizes those who will eventually control their fate. IslamÂ’s monumental hubris simply cannot humble itself long enough to grasp the consequences of committing constant terrorist atrocities against those who hold the keys to this worldÂ’s food larder. Death by starvation is every bit as final as death by bombardment with nuclear weapons and there is no residual radioactive fallout afterwards. The MME is teetering on the brink of devastating environmental collapse even as they continue to stab at those who could rescue them. The WestÂ’s patience wears ever more thin in the face of such monstrous ingratitude.

Posted by:Zenster

#16  Walter - how many Catholics do you think practice "no birth control"? In America, I'd say 5% max (my guess). I got snipped after 3 beautiful kids. I understand Mexico is experiencing a great decline in birth rates as they become more educated - that extrapolates worldwide. The Church may stick to the dogma, but real people living their lives have decided differently
Posted by: Frank G   2007-07-07 20:28  

#15  Population Control is against Allah, against the Hindu gods/godlets and against the Catholic Pope...

So... Liberal Protestant and Buddhist lands still stand a chance?

Oh, is that not the politically correct lesson?
Ducking the 45 cal. slugs coming my way...

I am just a minor minion of the Great Satan... please don't hit me so hard.

Posted by: 3dc   2007-07-07 18:16  

#14  #11. I'm glad you added a caveat, your awesomeness.
Posted by: gromgoru   2007-07-07 17:44  

#13  Didn't some general once say 'an army fights on its belly' (meaning food supply logistics, not crawling in the mud)?

That would be Napoleon who said:

"An army marches on its stomach."

Even though—as always with the French—it's all about the food, I'm quite certain he meant it as the superb double entendre that it is. Although Napoleon was revolutionary in the use of light weight kit and preserved foods, processing technology was nowhere developed enough to facilitate feeding such huge troop movements as his. Read "War and Peace" for a good idea of the logistics required to keep nearly half a million troops fed while on campaign.

At some point America needs to consider jacking up the price of any food we sell to the MME (Muslim Middle East). We are being milked like the last cow on the farm and it is time to play turnabout. It will never be too soon to begin reading the MME the riot act. The specter of starvation needs to loom large over their political landscape.

If, as I advocate, we recongregated this world's Muslim population back in their lands of origin, how long do you think those countries would last with all that extra population to feed? The sooner we implode the economic eggshell that is the MME, the better off this world will be.

We have bloated these violent psychopaths with our petrodollars for way too long. The time is now to make them begin confronting the reality of how barren and unsustainable their environments are. Starving psychopaths have a way of calming down in a New York minute when they don't even have the energy needed to lift a sword. Furthermore, more than one government in history has fallen from an inability to feed its masses. We need to chain a wolf at the door of these abusive Islamic regimes that will make their populations acutely aware of how their corrupt leaders wallow in luxury while they starve.
Posted by: Zenster   2007-07-07 14:03  

#12  Not doing well in breaking the curse of Cain, are they?
Posted by: newc   2007-07-07 13:47  

#11  The reason that the west will win in the long term over the islamic forces (if we survive the short term) is the fact that the arabs and their birth rate are not sustainable without western help. They don't have the resources, the technology or the education to help themselves. Remove the western help, and the whole middle east will collapse under its own rotten weight. With climatic change, or a depression in the west we can expect to see a famine and civil wars on a truly biblical scale over there.
Posted by: DarthVader   2007-07-07 11:34  

#10  Anybody who bothered to study economic history of Middle East knows that Arabs are, literally, "Death of the Land".
And, IMO, anybody who haven't studied history doesn't have an opinion worth listening to.
Posted by: gromgoru   2007-07-07 08:08  

#9  Phil_b, you may be on to something. Right now food is not scarce, globally. Producers give it away or sell it cheaply to consumers, allowing exponential expansion of consumer populations. When you look at who these populations are it becomes apparant that, statistically, we're subsidizing our enemies.
So, in the name of environmentalism and other PC causes, a cynical leadership (or a naive leadership with cynical advisers) can pump up demand for food within the producing countries by creating a huge new market - biofuel. With food surplus burned up, much reduced supply will be available to subsidize population expansion of the net consumers.
Didn't some general once say 'an army fights on its belly' (meaning food supply logistics, not crawling in the mud)? You want your army hungry, but not starving.
Posted by: Glenmore   2007-07-07 07:46  

#8  Some day we may put them on an oil quota, like Stalin did to the Ukrainians with wheat.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2007-07-07 07:42  

#7  Missed the link

http://www.nzclimatescience.org/images/PDFs/archibald2007.pdf
Posted by: phil_b   2007-07-07 07:37  

#6  2X4, we have food stockpiles (of grains) because 4 or 5 countries have produced over demand for years. My point was that the vulnerability of food importers is to supply, which can be affected by other demands (for the grains) and the weather.

ANd BTW, if you don't think we are at risk from abrupt climate cooling, then read the link below.

The money quote,

If the lowest prediction is borne out, this will have a large and negative effect on Canadian
grain production, for example, and on all high latitude agricultural production. The
experience from the Dalton Minimum was that the winters were longer and harder. And
this effect will be on us very soon.
Posted by: phil_b   2007-07-07 07:35  

#5  Then think of biofuels, not as a way of reducing oil import dependence but of financially attacking the food importers.

If biofuels can simultaneously reduce our oil dependence and shrink the quantity of available agricultural exports due to more profitable domestic markets, then suddenly there's a whole lot more to like about them.

I look forward to the day when we get to tell MME (Muslim Middle East) countries: "Eat sand and drink oil."
Posted by: Zenster   2007-07-07 04:49  

#4  phil_b, a lot of emergency food stock is provided as humanitarian aid, a freebie, so the cash flood may not be that great. But yea, food and water can be utilized as a great "incentive".
Posted by: twobyfour   2007-07-07 03:21  

#3  A few days ago I was going to post my speculations on the Bush Administration's engineering of APEC (The Association of Agricultural Exporting Countries) as a counter to OPEC.

Look at a list of (net) food exporting countries. Then look at a list of food importing countries.

Then think of biofuels, not as a way of reducing oil import dependence but of financially attacking the food importers.

Now throw in a bad harvest worldwide due to global warming or a cold wet summer (ENSO La Nina and a couple of other multi-decadal cycles turning negative) and you have a worldwide food crisis and food exporters getting an OPEC like cash bonanza.
Posted by: phil_b   2007-07-07 03:12  

#2  It defies comprehension that so much of the MME routinely antagonizes those who will eventually control their fate.

It's what they do. Also, Allan helps those who can't help themselves.
Posted by: Seafarious   2007-07-07 01:56  

#1  Zen, paragraphs 3 (second half) and 4 in your commentary is about 4 years ahead.
Posted by: twobyfour   2007-07-07 00:54  

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