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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Kremlin tears up arms pact with Nato
2007-07-15
President Vladimir Putin yesterday signalled that Russia was on a new and explosive collision course with Nato when he dumped a key arms control treaty limiting the deployment of conventional forces in Europe.

Putin said Moscow was unilaterally withdrawing from the Soviet-era Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty because of 'extraordinary circumstances that affect the security of the Russian Federation', the Kremlin said. These required 'immediate measures'.
Got a purchase order you're itching to fill, tovarich?
Tovarich. I had to look it up. :)
The treaty governs where Nato and Russia can station their troops in Europe. Moscow's decision to bin it suggests that Putin's talks earlier this month with President George Bush came to nothing, and that the Kremlin has reverted to its earlier belligerent mood. The Kremlin has for months been bitterly incensed by the Bush administration's decision to site elements of its missile defence shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Putin has derided American claims that the Pentagon system is designed to shoot down rogue missiles fired by Iran and North Korea. Instead he says the target is Russia. Last month he said the US could use a former Soviet radar system in Azerbaijan instead. But during his seaside summit this month with Putin at the Bush family's Maine home, President Bush rejected this offer - a snub that appears to have triggered Putin's latest defiant gesture.

'The detente lasted two weeks,' Pavel Felgenhauer, a Moscow-based defence analyst, told The Observer yesterday, referring to the short-lived thaw.

Putin's decision to leave the treaty comes against a backdrop of rapidly deteriorating relations between Russia and the West
Putin's decision to leave the treaty will come into effect in 150 days after the parties of the treaty have been notified. It comes against a backdrop of rapidly deteriorating relations between Russia and the West. In particular, Russia's relations with Britain are at their lowest point since the Seventies following Moscow's refusal last week to extradite Andrei Lugovoi, the former KGB agent charged with poisoning Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko in London.

The Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, is expected to announce punitive counter-measures this week. They could see the mass expulsion of diplomats from Russia's embassy in London, and tit-for-tat reprisals by Moscow.

In Brussels, Nato bluntly condemned Russia's decision to abandon the treaty, under which Nato and the Warsaw Pact agreed to reduce their conventional armed forces immediately after the Cold War. 'It's a step in the wrong direction,' said spokesman James Appathurai. 'The allies consider this treaty to be an important cornerstone of European stability.' Estonia said it deplored the move.

The Kremlin insisted, however, it had been left little choice. Russia's Foreign Ministry called the treaty 'hopelessly outdated'. It said restrictions on Russian troop deployment were now 'senseless' and prevented 'more efficient measures against international terrorism'.

Under the treaty, signed by the former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1990, Russia agreed to scrap much of its military hardware in Eastern Europe and limit the number of troops stationed on its northern and southern flanks.

The treaty was amended in 1999, calling on Russia to withdraw its troops from the former Soviet republics of Moldova and Georgia. Russia ratified the treaty but did not pull out its troops, prompting the US and other Nato members to refuse to ratify the treaty until Russia withdraws.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov yesterday said Russia could no longer tolerate a situation where it had ratified and its partners had not. Yesterday analysts said that Putin's move would probably not make much difference to Russia's military capacities, but it would allow Russian generals to carry out exercises without informing their Western counterparts and keep Russian troops in the breakaway regions of Georgia and Moldova.

Moscow's ferocious anti-Western rhetoric is set to continue ahead of parliamentary elections in December and presidential elections next year to choose Putin's successor.
Moscow's ferocious anti-Western rhetoric is set to continue ahead of parliamentary elections in December and presidential elections next year to choose Putin's successor.

Some analysts, however, believe Moscow's move is largely symbolic. The moratorium probably wouldn't result in any major build-up in heavy weaponry in European Russia, Felgenhauer said. But it would annoy Washington, he conceded. 'This will be a major irritant. It will seriously spoil relations.'
Posted by:lotp

#8  Russia's proposal to share a potent radar station wid the USA so close to Iran didn't go down well wid Iran's govt. Besides being JOTH = close to Iran's borders, it also hinted that Russia does not and will never consider Azerbaijan as sovereign or independent from Moscow. ala China + North Korea. Lest we fergit, during the Cold War the USSR's definition of "conventional forces" was inclusive of "dual-use" battlefield-tactical Nuke-WMD missles and tube artillery.
Posted by: JosephMendiola   2007-07-15 19:59  

#7  The eastern European states were easy pickings for the Soviets.

You're referring to the Russians who've had their asses handed to them on a number of occasions by the muzzie Chetnyians. Not what I'd call an effective or efficient organization on either side. So, you really think the Russkis want to try the Poles, this time without German help? Anything less than nuclear blackmail would be very expensive and subject to humiliating failure and absolutely give the Chinese a go ahead into Siberia. Resorting to absolute nuclear blackmail would give both the Chinese and the US the opening to play that card in turn in regions the Russians currently obstruct the former parties interests. The Great Game part deux.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2007-07-15 12:46  

#6  Disagree with you re: Azerbaijan. The Iranians have long claimed the Azeri region as 'natural extensions' of Iran itself. It's got the world's 2nd largest Shi'ite population, after Iran, which looks to Iran for religious guidance. Putin was being disingenuous, to say the least, when 'offering' it as a site for US BMD.
Posted by: lotp   2007-07-15 12:25  

#5  I think Putin's offer of Azerbaijan makes perfect sense. Putin just doesn't realize the lesson we just learned, Bush has a stone in his head. Putin should negotiate with the EU.
On the other hand, Putin is playing hard and fast with other peoples' lives. What's with that ?
Posted by: wxjames   2007-07-15 11:49  

#4  I suspect he's already written off anything east of the Urals, at least for now. The eastern European states were easy pickings for the Soviets. The far east is a lot harder to exploit -- and where they did so, they left incredible ecological devastation behind. Lake Baikal. Norilsk.

Still are massive natural resources out there, tho.
Posted by: lotp   2007-07-15 07:35  

#3  Yep, 3dc. Pooty's looking westward (not really worriedly--he knows that he's looking on an already thinning swarm of euro-invertebre), while they'll start chewing on his behind pretty soon in far east.
Posted by: twobyfour   2007-07-15 02:09  

#2  Esp. with the dragon looking at Siberia...
Posted by: 3dc   2007-07-15 01:47  

#1  Idiot. Only a fool misruling a country of 140 million impoverished peasants wants to get into an arms race with 800 million (soon to be 900) of the richest people on the planet.
Posted by: ed   2007-07-15 01:32  

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