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| Africa North |
| Egypt vs. Hamas- an analysis |
| 2007-09-10 |
| Egypt knows the dangers of Hamas, but won't aggravate things Two years ago, no one anticipated the current situation in the Gaza Strip. What is happening now is approaching a worst-case scenario for Egypt. Egyptian officials do not conceal their assessments in this regard. In its editorials, the semi-official newspaper Al-Ahram has begun referring to "the fanatic current" inside Hamas. Repeated statements confirm that the trend toward separating Gaza from the West Bank or establishing an Islamic emirate in Gaza threatens Egyptian national security. Egyptian officials hope Hamas will understand that its actions in the strip are being watched and that there are red lines that could dictate harsh policies if Egypt's interests are negatively affected. Yet nobody wants the situation in Gaza to shift from "danger" to catastrophe. The prevailing viewpoint in Egypt is that what happened was not an inevitable outcome of the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Some analysts think that withdrawals that are carried out without sufficient political arrangements or elections conducted without attention to political realities can produce negative ramifications even though they are good steps per se. But Egypt could not oppose an Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian territories. On the contrary, it thought that disciplined management of Gaza's affairs after the withdrawal could make it a model for withdrawal from additional Palestinian territories. Egypt played a direct role in managing security arrangements before and after the withdrawal. Security was the key. What happened in Gaza after the withdrawal was the outcome of a series of problems that seemed uncontrollable: The performance of the Fatah movement was dreadful; Hamas thought it had a chance to govern Gaza; Israel did not provide enough support for Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, while he himself played dangerous games; and the influence of regional players began penetrating Gaza. The siege imposed on the Palestinian government after the elections of January 2006 confused everyone. All roads were leading to catastrophe. Some say that Egypt could have intervened in a harsher way to control the situation and that it was more flexible than the situation required. But the Palestinians are not an easy player, the behavior of partner countries was not helpful and Egypt was reluctant to adopt pressure tactics lest it seem as if the old "Gaza governor" had come back. No one knows whether the situation would have taken another direction had Egypt applied a different policy. Throughout, it was understood in Egypt that its policies toward the Gaza Strip were connected not only to its commitments to the Palestinian cause and its sense of responsibility toward Gaza's population but also to its own security. No country in the world would be willing to live beside a potential bomb - whether Fatah's "failed Gaza" or a radical emirate under Hamas' rule - especially when the bomb lies directly across the border from Sinai, whose sensitive status stems from its strategic location, tourist investments and the nature of its population. The challenges facing Egypt's security escalated immediately after the Israeli withdrawal. RTWT |
| Posted by:Free Radical |
| #3 Yet nobody wants the situation in Gaza to shift from "danger" to catastrophe. Didn't they get the memo? Gaza already is a catastrophe. On the contrary, it thought that disciplined management of Gaza's affairs after the withdrawal could make it a model for withdrawal from additional Palestinian territories. I guess they didn't get the other memo either. Gaza is the "model for withdrawal from additional Palestinian territories". All of Gaza's inhabitants need to be flushed into the Sinai as a reward to Egypt for having continually poured gasoline on the fire. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2007-09-10 20:29 |
| #2 Now, now, Elder---the Egyptians are valuable allies in WoT. |
| Posted by: gromgoru 2007-09-10 16:44 |
| #1 The Egyptians turned their blind eye towards the arm smuggling across the Philadelphy Rd. and the Fundo-Islamic "renaissance" in Gaza. As the late Arafish said "Let them now drink the seawater of Gaza". |
| Posted by: Elder of Zion 2007-09-10 06:35 |