 The story of Zimbabwe's downward spiral now has a climax — and even a possible end-date. A constitutional amendment passed Tuesday by Zimbabwe's parliament paves the way for joint parliamentary and presidential elections in March 2008. The bill also allows parliament to elect a new president if the incumbent does not serve a full term. Since his ZANU-PF party has a parliamentary majority, that effectively gives President Robert Mugabe the authority to handpick a successor, if he so chooses, even before the next election. Raising the possibility of Mugabe's departure, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG), a leading communist front think-tank on global conflict, said one of the keys to saving Zimbabwe was offering Mugabe and his allies amnesty from prosecution, and allowing them to keep fortunes amassed during their rule, in exchange for political reform and a free and fair election. It added that Zimbabwe's "only real hope" lay in the South Africa-mediated talks between the government and the opposition.
| They'd be willing to give Bob amnesty. How many times have such groups demanded prosecution of Americans from George Bush to Donald Rumsfeld for 'war crimes'? Bob Mugabe has actually committed multiple, verifiable crimes against humanity, and the ICG wants to give him a pass. Sorta tells you everything you need to know, doesn't it. |
Despite the often violent suppression by the government of opposition activity in recent years, Tuesday's bill had the support of both the government and the main opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change ( M.D.C.). This rare consensus — brokered in the South African negotiations — prompted Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa, who represented the government in the talks, to declare a "new unity of purpose" in Zimbabwe. Nelson Chamisa, spokesman for the main faction of the M.D.C., agreed the development indicated progress in the talks.
Talking is certainly an improvement in Zimbabwean politics. But make no mistake, this is merely setting the date for a fight. Both sides have reason to believe that an election will work to their advantage. The ruling Zanu-PF, however much Western governments may dislike the idea, remains Zimbabwe's most popular and most effective political tribe party — and it can expect to win.
| Politics in Africa is tribal, and ZANU-PF represents the largest tribe. Of course they're going to win. |
The M.D.C., on the other hand, believes that a campaign will give it a platform to get its message across to Zimbabweans and the international community. |