Horn of Africa enemies Ethiopia and Eritrea may return to war over their disputed border in a matter of weeks if there is no major international push to halt them, an influential think-tank warned on Monday. A 1998-2000 war on the boundary killed 70,000 people and brought untold hardship to two of the worldÂ’s poorest nations. Now analysts are warning of a repeat as troops build up ahead of an end-November deadline by an independent boundary commission for Ethiopia and Eritrea to mark out their border.
“The risk that Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their war in the next several weeks is very real,” wrote the International Crisis Group (ICG) in a report on the growing crisis. “A military build-up along the common border over the past few months has reached alarming proportions. There will be no easy military solution if hostilities restart - more likely is a protracted conflict on Eritrean soil, progressive destabilisation of Ethiopia and a dramatic humanitarian crisis.” The ICG urged the United States and the United Nations to flex their muscles “to give both sides the clearest possible message that no destabilising unilateral action will be tolerated.”
The US has muscles to flex. I was unaware that the UN had any muscle other than a sphincter. | Washington sees Ethiopia as its best ally in the region, but ties with Eritrea have deteriorated so much it may put Asmara on its list of terrorism sponsors for backing Somali Islamists. The ICG cited US estimates that Eritrea had 4,000 soldiers, supported by artillery and armour, in the “supposedly demilitarised TSZ” as well as 120,000 troops nearby. |