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India-Pakistan
Crackdown in Pak has militants in the Kashmir Valley confused and worried
2007-11-12
NEW DELHI
• Militant in Kashmir: Udhar halaat kharab hai, suna hai (Have heard it’s pretty grim there)

• Handler in PoK: Woh (Musharraf) to Mujahid ki position aise uda raha hai jaise dushman ke bunker ho (He has been blowing up Mujahid positions as if they are enemy bunkers)

• Militant: Idhar bhi kafiron (Indian forces) ne karyavahi tej kar di hai (Even here the infidels have stepped up operations)

• Handler: Yeh jo (Waziristan) karyavahi hai, Hindustan ke kafiron ke hosale buland kar rahee hai (The Waziristan operations are boosting Indian morale)

• Militant: Aisi halat rahi to dono taraf se hamara masla hi ho jayega (If this continues, we will be done for at both ends)
A flurry of such radio messages and phone calls across the LoC in the last few days indicates that Kashmiri militants, preparing for a winter stay in the Valley, are a worried lot with the declaration of emergency in Pakistan.

Communication intercepts by intelligence agencies have brought out the uncertainty and confusion among militants who rely heavily on logistical support from across the LoC.

Their biggest concern, say Indian intelligence agencies, is whether the supply lines from across the LoC will remain open. While most queries to their Pakistani handlers are on how the ‘Mujahid’ are faring against government troops, the militants seem more worried about their own fate, especially after reports that Musharraf plans to crack down on extremism.

“They (Mujahid) got hold of 60 troops. Some have been killed. This has angered the (Pak) army. Heavy artillery and helicopters are being moved into the area now,” reads a translated transcript of a conversation, responding to a Kashmir infiltrator’s query about a specific Mujahid group operating in Waziristan.

Intelligence officials say that with the picture still unclear across the border, militants are shelving plans to exfiltrate (return to PoK) before the passes close in the winter. Their handlers from across the border are also not too keen on their return.

In a recent intercept, a militant asked his handler whether his group should make preparations for ‘water’ — the codename for exfiltration — but was told to sit tight during winter.

“The militants are currently in a state of confusion about the developments across the border. Even their handlers are not clear how things will shape in the future,” said an intelligence official.

Indian agencies are also apprehensive that militants may even be instructed to scale up attacks in the Valley during winter to divert attention from the events in the Pakistan north-west. While violence levels in the Valley are at a low, a series of desperate infiltrations bids on the LoC have been made in the past month.

At a recent press conference, even Army Chief Deepak Kapoor had cautioned that the Valley might be up for a tough winter. “Overall, violence levels may have come down to 50 per cent of last year, but at the same time, in the last month, a large number of cases of infiltration have occurred as the passes will close in November,” Kapoor had said. Security forces estimate that close to 900 militants have entered Kashmir through various routes this year.
Posted by:john frum

#2  Now all we need is one of those pesky "Worst winters in 60 years", it's hard to be a pain in the ass with no toes.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2007-11-12 17:18  

#1  Goody. It would be nice if they decided to take themselves away.
Posted by: trailing wife   2007-11-12 12:18  

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