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| Europe |
| French FM: France is not ruling out a military strike on Iran |
| 2007-11-18 |
| French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner maintains that the report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) late last week on the Iranian nuclear program and Tehran's "increased cooperation" with the agency does not alter the seriousness with which France views the crisis or its stance on a potential military strike against Iran. The French foreign minister began a tour of Israel and the Palestinian Authority on Saturday. In an interview with Haaretz, Kouchner, who along with French President Nicolas Sarkozy is leading the European hard-liners against Iran, described the crisis over Iran's nuclear program "as extremely serious," adding that France "will never compromise on Israel's security." Even though in Tehran the IAEA's report was described as a "political victory" that may prevent the intensifying of international sanctions, Kouchner says that "for now Iran persists in not meeting its international commitments." In an indirect reference to the agency's report, which concluded that Iran is continuing its uranium-enrichment efforts, he says that "in accordance with [United Nations Security Council] Resolution 1747, we have no choice but to make another decision at the Security Council [on imposing new sanctions]." When asked if in light of the Russian and Chinese opposition, a likelihood exists of forcing Iran to abandon its nuclear project without having to use force, Kouchner said: "We have proposed to our European partners to adopt measures against Iran also within the European Union framework, in order to let Iran understand that it cannot continue with its policy of creating faits accomplis." Will France support the use of force by the United States or Israel? Will France be willing to participate in an attack on Iran? Kouchner did not respond directly to the questions but used language that suggests that for France, all options, including that of military force, are open: "I intend to continue with great determination along this path [of pressuring Iran] which is the only way to bring about an agreed solution, the only one that will prevent us from having, one day, to be faced with a dilemma of 'an Iranian bomb or bombing Iran.'" |
| Posted by:ryuge |
| #20 Assuming the Iranians won't capitulate through diplomacy in their push to get nukes, how many here at RB think military action (by ANY country or combination of countries) will be used to take 'em out? I think it's too close to call. But if I had a gun to my head and were ordered to bet on pain of death, I'd probably put my money on "no military action." |
| Posted by: Dave D. 2007-11-18 20:11 |
| #19 I think Pappy's on the mark - I work with Americans with Iranian relatives (yes, I trust them). Things are getting bad at home, times are tough, and everyone expects the hammer to strike soon, yet they have hopes to barely survive and restore democracy (with dead mullahs and basij as doorstops... in their best dreams) |
| Posted by: Frank G 2007-11-18 19:52 |
| #18 Assuming the Iranians won't capitulate through diplomacy in their push to get nukes, how many here at RB think military action (by ANY country or combination of countries) will be used to take 'em out? The issue is not whether Rantburgers think military action will take place, but whether the Iranian government thinks it will take place. At this point, I'd say it's 60-40 that the Iranian officials believe military action will take place. If one looks at the political opposition, it's closer to 70-30. But the officials are the ones who matter. Tho the bluster level from the IRGC has been high, Iran (for the moment) has stopped overtly supplying the Iraqis. If they were confident there would be no attack, they wouldn't have stopped. Iran is also having economic panic-attacks. Gold buying has been heavy. They aren't doing well with the decline of the dollar. Part of this is based on war fears. For those that believe Iran gets hit militarily, what time frame do you have in mind? It really depends on what the Iranians do. |
| Posted by: Pappy 2007-11-18 19:40 |
| #17 lotp , i wasn't saying the french military where wusses, but their leadership politically is. thats who calls in the military strikes right?? JFM i am a man, and believe it it's not thatI am wanting too kiss your ass by any means |
| Posted by: sinse 2007-11-18 17:28 |
| #16 I'm with NS on this. Over a year ago I predicted that Bush will simply wait until his last months in office then simply exercise his authority as Commander in Chief to declare Iran a clear and present danger and proceed to bomb the crap out of their nuclear R&D program. It'll be over in less than a week so congressional approval after 60 days will be moot. Bush has done a lot to shake my belief that he will stay true to his word on prohibiting Iran's entrance into the nuclear club. I can only hope that he follows through as the chilling prospects of a potential democratic win in 2008 literally guarantee Iran the breathing space needed to perfect their nuclear technology. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2007-11-18 16:24 |
| #15 I doubt he even consults. What's the upside? They'll either be bitter lame ducks or triumphal. In either case, they'd blab to the NYT to try to kill it. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-11-18 16:13 |
| #14 In respone to Nimble: Bush will not seek prior approval to hit Iran. Consult with the opposition dhimmicrats? Yes. Seek their approval? No. Which will please the dhimmicrats because it gives them political cover - plausible deniablity. |
| Posted by: Mark Z 2007-11-18 16:01 |
| #13 Something will happen. November 10, 2008 to January 8, 2009. Unless it can be done deniably and covertly, which I very much doubt, in which case it could be done any time. What gets done will be very much a function of the debate leading up to the election and the results of the election. A more interesting question will be if you think there will be action, will Bush seek congressional approval. I doubt he will. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-11-18 15:45 |
| #12 Could we have a show of hands?: Assuming the Iranians won't capitulate through diplomacy in their push to get nukes, how many here at RB think military action (by ANY country or combination of countries) will be used to take 'em out? For those that believe Iran gets hit militarily, what time frame do you have in mind? I'm not interested in what you HOPE will happen, I want to know if you THINK it will happen and when. Thanks. |
| Posted by: Mark Z 2007-11-18 14:53 |
| #11 It was a French Rafale fighter landing on the USS Enterprise in July of this year. |
| Posted by: lotp 2007-11-18 13:51 |
| #10 I thought it was the other way around, French planes on US carriers. Did we really land on the CDG? |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-11-18 13:35 |
| #9 The optimistic side of me wants to go with Besoeker on this. France desperately needs to fire a shot across the bow of its Muslim population. Nothing sez that like participating in an attack on one of the Arab world's major powers. Moreover, few greater humiliations exist than quashing Muslim Nuclear Pride™. At the very least, Sarkozy is bringing International Iranian Intervention™ into mainstream political dialogue, which is where it desperately needs to be. |
| Posted by: Zenster 2007-11-18 13:34 |
| #8 Might explain why US planes were practicing landing and taking off from the De Gaulle a few months back. Al |
| Posted by: Frozen Al 2007-11-18 13:31 |
| #7 The French will not be taking anything out, at least alone. But they are giving the US or Israel their support in advance and effectively volunteering to help, an offer I am sure which would be most graciously accepted by either party. For the French, in addition to doing the right thing to protect themselves and western civilization, they would regain military primacy in Europe, lost in 1870. As EUrope moves, apparently with the blessings of Gordon the Idiot, toward an integrated military structure, the French would be in a position, having participated in a successful strike, of claiming primacy in the leadership of a EUropean force. As Besoeker points out it might also allow them to assure that EUrope does not become EU-ROPma. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2007-11-18 10:45 |
| #6 Besoeker: We can hope. Something along the lines of telling their car-b-q artists and their families they can either decide to be French or they can go back to Algeria. It would be sweet if after all the talk it was the French who took out the Persian nuclear program. I would especially look forward to doing a little dance in front of the Russian consulate. |
| Posted by: Excalibur 2007-11-18 09:55 |
| #5 Personally, I'm not writing them off. In addition to other motivations, the French have a very sigificant Islamic challenge simmering domestically. Bold military action abroud would bring all of this to a riotous boiling point which would permit the matter to be dealt with quite forcefully. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2007-11-18 09:26 |
| #4 sinse, I've had a chance to get to know some French officers. Whatever one thinks of their political leadership, there are some tough, competant people serving in French uniform. Whether they are equipped well or allowed to function other than in ex-French colonies is a separate matter. |
| Posted by: lotp 2007-11-18 09:17 |
| #3 if france strikes anyone militarily i will kiss every rantburgers ass personally. Ifyou are a man then try, just try to come within ten yards of me and it wil be the last thing you will do. |
| Posted by: JFM 2007-11-18 09:13 |
| #2 As long as somebody else carries it out... |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2007-11-18 08:34 |
| #1 if france strikes anyone militarily i will kiss every rantburgers ass personally. i wouldn't get your hopes up |
| Posted by: sinse 2007-11-18 08:17 |