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| Home Front: WoT |
| After A Nuclear 9/11 |
| 2008-03-27 |
| If a terrorist group were to detonate a nuclear weapon on U.S. soil, the FBI, CIA, Department of Homeland Security and the nation's national labs would race to track down those responsible and prevent any further detonations by that group. After the Sept. 11 attacks, the time between the fall of the twin towers and our response in Afghanistan was less than one month. But current U.S. nuclear forensics capability -- which involves analyzing nuclear radiation and isotopic signatures -- can't guarantee definitive information within a month of an attack. Radiation and isotopic signatures are the scents that nuclear forensics scientists use to hunt terrorists. Within a few hours, they would know whether the bomb was made of plutonium or uranium, a crucial first step in narrowing the investigation. Within hours to weeks, they would determine key details about the original nuclear material and then estimate the size, weight and complexity of the bomb. Over the next several months, they might be able to identify the source country and the terrorists' pathway into the United States. With a few changes, the speed and accuracy of nuclear forensics could be significantly improved. First, we should update our 20th-century program to confront 21st-century enemies. Much of our field and laboratory equipment dates to the Cold War. So do most of our personnel. We need to develop and manufacture advanced, automated radiation analysis equipment that can be deployed to the field and is backed up by improved laboratory measurement. We need enhanced computer simulation and modeling capabilities. And we need to establish a federal initiative to reinvigorate the field of nuclear chemistry. Second, international collaboration is essential. Nuclear material can have a unique signature depending on its source reactor or fuel facility. A shared and appropriately accessible international database of nuclear samples can help to more quickly match debris from an explosion with its original source. Third, we must consider what it will take for the world to believe our analysis. The U.S. intelligence community's failures in assessing weapons of mass destruction in Iraq could well result in international skepticism regarding any nuclear forensics investigation we might perform. A group of recognized experts not associated with our federal investigation should be established to provide independent validation of the forensics analysis. Finally, we need to manage expectations and prepare for the inevitable political pressure to respond quickly after an attack. Through realistic drills, our leaders can become aware of the strengths and limitations of the nation's nuclear forensics capability. Even with these changes, forensics analysis will take time, and results will not be immediately conclusive. Our leaders must recognize that, at times, decisions may need to be deferred or made amid uncertainty. No, finally we need to publicly, at the UN, tell Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and Syria that if there is such an explosion in the U. S. it will be our default position that they, jointly and severally, are the culpable and it will be their responsibility to demonstrate otherwise to our satisfaction before we, without prior notice, hit the red button or do whatever else we wish to. And if any other nation has a problem with that, they can join the list. People need to understand you can only pull on Superman's cape so many times before he turns around and swats you. This clown may be named Davis but I am assured he's not Mr. Davis. |
| Posted by:Nimble Spemble |
| #7 If a terrorist group were to detonate a nuclear weapon on U.S. soil, the FBI, CIA, Department of Homeland Security and the nation's national labs would race to track down those responsible and prevent any further |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2008-03-27 22:53 |
| #6 In the absence of major or decisive battlefield victory agz US, + absence/preclusion of placing their orgaz fate and Regional-Global Jihad wholly in the control of "infidel", etc. Anti/Non-Islamist world powers, THAT ONLY LEAVES MASS = HIGH PROFILE NUCLEAR-WMD TERROR ATTACKS + ESCALATORY "MUTUAL DESTRUCTION" OPTIONS. OSAMA + RADICAL ISLAM NEED THE "ISLAMIST BOMB" [NUKE/POPULATION SWORD?]NOW, NOT LATER - this means traditional "Shia versus Sunni" rivalry is out, HELPING + PROTECTING + EXPANDING NUCLEARIZING IRAN + OTHER ANTI-US MILITANT MUSLIM STATES IS "IN", espec vv RUSSIA + CENASIA. Just in case the US does decide to attack and invade IRAN, Radical Islam can still acquire NUCTECHS + NUCBOMBS vv VARI MAFIAS + UNSECURE COLD WAR SOVIET ARSENALS-CACHES IN FORMER SSR's-RUSSIA, IFF THE ISLAMISTS DON'T HAVE THESE ALREADY AS PER VARI POST-9-11 NET SOURCES INCLUDING OFFICIOS WITHIN THE RUSS GOVT. ITSELF. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-03-27 22:39 |
| #5 Huh. Yet another article that talks about "a" nuclear weapon. If it happens, it's not going to be "a" detonation. If they can smuggle one in, they can smuggle more. They'd be stupid to even bother if they only have one device (it's not as though they'd get a second chance), and if they have more, then they'd be stupid not to try to smuggle in every last one they have and detonate them all simultaneously the day after they're all in place, or the moment one of the bombs or smuggling teams is discovered. The only way it'll be "a" detonation is if it's the second team that is intercepted. There really seems to be a failure of imagination on this point. |
| Posted by: Muggsy Ebberesh1867 2008-03-27 19:27 |
| #4 If a terrorist group were to detonate a nuclear weapon on U.S. soil, the FBI, CIA, Department of Homeland Security and the nation's national labs would race to track down those responsible and prevent any further detonations by that group. Well THAT'S a relief. I'm sure they will have all the proper warrants and read everyone involved their bloody rights. What's the prize for the agency winning the "race", I wonder? Shiny new Blackberries all around? |
| Posted by: Grenter Protector of the Geats4975 2008-03-27 17:17 |
| #3 i agree kill them all thats one way too win , or just nuke MEcca and then they will, see that we mean buisness, then take saudi arabias oil |
| Posted by: sinse 2008-03-27 16:41 |
| #2 Some would likely claim credit. Others would dance in the streets. Kill them all. |
| Posted by: Darrell 2008-03-27 16:35 |
| #1 Believe it or not, US officials have already stated that even if they could trace PU or U from a terror attack to a state like Pakistan, that would not mean retaliation since non state actors could have gotten hold of material without the complicity of Pak (or NoKo) officials. |
| Posted by: john frum 2008-03-27 15:55 |