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| Home Front Economy |
| Single-family home prices tumble in March |
| 2008-05-28 |
| Prices of single-family homes plunged a record 14.4 percent in March from a year earlier, while consumer confidence slumped to its lowest in 16 years in May as gasoline prices surged. The Standard & Poor's/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas released on Tuesday showed prices of previously owned homes fell 2.2 percent in March, deepening their year-on-year decline. Separately, the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index slumped to 57.2 this month from 62.8 in April as rising gasoline costs and falling home prices made Americans increasingly nervous both about current conditions and the future. |
| Posted by:Fred |
| #25 The most important point in granting a mortgage is ability to pay. That used to be the case when the system was flush with cash to lend. I doubt any of us will ever see that situation again. Now, the most important point in granting a mortgage is the willingness of the lender to lend against the property and crucially how much will they lend. It doesn't make the front page, but banks are in a desperate scrambled to raise capital wiped out by bad real estate debts. The math is simple. A bank has $10 capital for every $100 they lend. If 10% of their loans go bad and can't be recovered then the Bank's capital is totally wiped out. The bank is bankrupt. In fact, it only needs 2 or 3% of loans to go bad before a bank's capital is reduced to the point it is legally required to reduce lending. I'd say the bursting of the real estate bubble will bankrupt every bank in the developed world. One thing is certain, loans will be a lot harder to get for a very long time. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2008-05-28 22:53 |
| #24 Or for people without enough cash to pay for them.... Then the federal government will bail them out from their own stupid decisions with *our* tax dollars. |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2008-05-28 18:17 |
| #23 Already there looking for smaller house with less to deal with. McMansions are for people with too much cash to burn and plenty of kids. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-05-28 18:09 |
| #22 Serious question, when they sell their home, Just where are they going to live? Seems the boom is just going to shift to smaller Overpriced houses, instead of big overpriced houses. Correct. The realtors call them "jewel boxes". |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-05-28 17:19 |
| #21 They will move in with their kids so their kids will have to put up with their bullshit, pay their expenses, and generally give up their lives for their spoiled parents...... |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2008-05-28 17:19 |
| #20 They'll move into Motorhomes and travel the US, because gas is cheaper...er....nevermind /emily littella |
| Posted by: Frank G 2008-05-28 17:13 |
| #19 Once the boomers start cashing in that house for the retirement investment the realtor told them it was, Serious question, when they sell their home, Just where are they going to live? Seems the boom is just going to shift to smaller Overpriced houses, instead of big overpriced houses. |
| Posted by: Redneck Jim 2008-05-28 16:57 |
| #18 For years in San Diego developers and their pet politicians kept saying we need more "affordable housing". This, of course, was just a code meaning we need to let developers do whatever they want. But now that housing is actually becoming more affordable they're all crying about the "slump". The Union-Tribune, the local rag, reported yesterday that developers are laying off workers and some are even leaving town. Oh, boo-hoo. You just can't please some folks. BTW, if you have cash for a down payment, now is a great time to get into the market. One man's misery is another man's chance to score. The boom in housing prices was caused by exotic, zero down payment, adjustable rate mortgages that should not have been legal and which the buyers should have read more carefully. When the rates were adjusted up the buyers couldn't pay so we had a gazillion foreclosures on the market. You didn't have to be a psychic to see it coming. What bothers me is that, instead of taking action years ago to make these types of mortgages illegal, the government is now rewarding the irresponsible morons and bailing them out with my tax dollars. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2008-05-28 16:17 |
| #17 "Houses Now More Affordable!" |
| Posted by: mojo 2008-05-28 15:58 |
| #16 Is this the same media which reported that a 8% INCREASE in the cost-of-living for social security seniors was a slash-cut which would starve millions? Back with Bush the Senior. They knew they were lying. They even admitted they were lying through their teeth. But they still continued to lie. That is one of the reasons I left the Democratic Party. Just got sick of the lies. And recently I discover that they have been lying about a great many things I took for granted. I wouldn't believe the MSM if they told me my own name -- I'd still check out my drivers license. |
| Posted by: CrazyFool 2008-05-28 14:45 |
| #15 Not according to a lot of historical trend analyses - those suggest we're only 1/3 of the way down so far. Many commentators claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where they've been historically. They usually base this on analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are still 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%, they say. Although this theory sounds plausible, it overlooks one major fact. The majority of people buy their houses using mortgages. The most important point in granting a mortgage is ability to pay. Nowadays the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is around 5.7%. Back in 1981,under Carter, the rate hit 18.5%. So at the time one could only afford a house one third the value in real terms |
| Posted by: tipper 2008-05-28 14:22 |
| #14 I don't believe those statistics are even approximately right. April unemployment rate - 5.0 percent (source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) Inflation (Consumer Price Index): 3.9%(source: Bureau of Labor Statistics) |
| Posted by: Pappy 2008-05-28 13:34 |
| #13 Much of it is obviously in the poll numbers - if you poll folks in MI or OH you will likely get very low confidence. If folks in the Carolinas or TX are polled in might be higher. Figures can lie and liars always figure. |
| Posted by: Broadhead6 2008-05-28 13:04 |
| #12 By the time I looked up sources, you had already posted them, OP. Guess I'm a day late & a doller short again. ;-p |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2008-05-28 12:50 |
| #11 #6 below 5% unemployment and below 4% inflation I don't believe those statistics are even approximately right. Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 Well, the government is reporting the unemployment rate as of April being 5.0%, and inflation was 4.2% since last April, not seasonally adjusted. I think the statistics Old Spook presented were pretty close, if not right on. You may not WANT to believe it, but the links will give you the same information they gave me (and probably OS as well). |
| Posted by: Old Patriot 2008-05-28 12:44 |
| #10 It is going to get much worse before it gets better. Once the boomers start cashing in that house for the retirement investment the realtor told them it was, there is going to be a massive inventory of homes on the market. |
| Posted by: crosspatch 2008-05-28 12:31 |
| #9 Price is what you pay...value is what you get. |
| Posted by: DepotGuy 2008-05-28 12:24 |
| #8 I read something the other day that a comparative analysis of news reports revealed that reports about the economy are more negative now than they were during the Great Depression. |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2008-05-28 11:59 |
| #7 What OS said. One of the morning "news" shows had a professor from MIT, who basically told them any 'recession' was the media's doing. Of course the fact that we aren't even half way to a recession is irrelevant to the media. Someone should tell them, it takes 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth to be a recession. We haven't even had one yet. Although we are in what some economists call a growth recession, meaning the economy is growing just not as fast as it was before. Ugh. BTW, homes in my area continue to rise in value. Yay me. |
| Posted by: AllahHateMe 2008-05-28 10:41 |
| #6 below 5% unemployment and below 4% inflation I don't believe those statistics are even approximately right. |
| Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2008-05-28 10:38 |
| #5 Consumer Confidence dropping? Then the MSM has done its job of buffaloing people into believing that below 5% unemployment and below 4% inflation is a BAD economy. The economy is every bit as good now as it was under Clinton, despite a war and our crippling ourselves by refusing to drill for oil on our own soil, and government overspending on stupid pork projects. But the press has been hammering how miserable everyone should *feel*, and eventually it sinks in. They are trying to set up a Dem victory by pinning it all on the GOP and Bush. Lying sons of bitches. Want pain? Remember Jimmy Carter? Double digit unemployment AND double digit inflation AND fuel shortages AND a rotting military. I swear we should take the press out and shoot them. they have become a partisan wing of the liberals, and have ceased to do their job of reporting facts in an objective manner instead of spinning for their political allies. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-05-28 10:03 |
| #4 now approaching their real value Not according to a lot of historical trend analyses - those suggest we're only 1/3 of the way down so far. Of course it will be worse in some markets than others, just like the increases were higher in some markets (and not necessarily the same ones.) |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2008-05-28 08:25 |
| #3 Shhhhh. Take a deep breath, JosephM. If you really want to see snake-shaped Indian mounds, come visit me -- the real thing is in my area. Separately, I read yesterday that home sales were actually up in April in terms of numbers of houses sold, and total inventory fell slightly. Just as it does every year during prime selling season (April - August). |
| Posted by: trailing wife 2008-05-28 07:04 |
| #2 So overvalued houses are now approaching their real value. Painful for those who bought high, but a correction for sure, and one that was bound to happen. |
| Posted by: no mo uro 2008-05-28 05:59 |
| #1 D *** NG IT, SINGLE-FAMILY SUBURBIA smacks of decadent American-ski pre-OWG Capitalism, Democracy, Free Markets Federalism and Individualism. THIS IS A WAR FOR OWG-NWO/SWO, D *** NG IT, WE DEMAND TERMITE/ANT MOUND-, SNAKE-, AND TREE-SHAPED, ETC. DESIGNS FOR FUTURE OWG MEGALOPOLOLOLOSISISISISIS SHIRES [MegaCities/Megalopolises] = GLOBAL SOCIALIST GOVT. COLLECTIVES! |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-05-28 03:12 |