| It's almost as if they read Rantburg ... |
Why would Moscow want to set fire to the Caucasus, especially at a time when conflicts are intensifying from Afghanistan to Lebanon? According to Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania, Georgia's been "enemy number one" to the Kremlin since its pro-Western Rose Revolution in 2003. This year, though, tensions have come to a head. Georgia's President Mikhail Saakashvili recently accused Moscow of being behind a mysterious explosion on a gas line. In May, Russia banned imports of Georgian wine, severely hurting its economy. Now skirmishes in Abkhazia and South Ossetia have come close to rekindling wars against Georgia's breakaway republics.
The Kremlin denies undermining its southern neighbor, claiming it wants only to be the guarantor of various ceasefire deals with Georgia's rebel provinces. The danger is that future clashes could easily involve Russian troops, who are permanently stationed in both Abkhazia and Ossetia as peacekeepers. Any fire fights between Georgian and Russian troops could quickly escalate into something much more serious than a tribal revolt.