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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Georgia: Russia demands to be regarded as number one |
| 2008-08-11 |
| Why has Russia reverted to traditional means of controlling its former satellite states? At the heart of Vladimir Putin's aggressive nationalism is his firm belief that the power of the West is on the wane, says James Sherr. As billions watched China stake its claim to being the 21st century's leading power, with a stunning opening ceremony at the Beijing Olympics, its former Cold War partner was pursuing its own ambitions in an altogether more traditional way. Russia's brutal demonstration of power in South Ossetia, a breakaway region of its southern neighbour Georgia, marks the latest -- and most alarming -- sign of the Kremlin's determination to reclaim control over former Soviet states. These former satellites have now been left in no doubt that Russia must be regarded as "glavniy", or number one, if they wish to avoid the fate of Georgia. Central to Vladimir Putin's nationalistic policy is a conviction that the power of the West -- seemingly unassailable at the end of the Cold War -- is on the wane. The current crisis demonstrates that the Cold War has not been replaced by common values between East and West, but by the revival of hard Realpolitik. |
| Posted by:3dc |
| #9 Could it end with: "Assist China in recovering Northern Manchuria for Chinese Passport holders?" or would it take... "Return Rus to the Vikings" |
| Posted by: 3dc 2008-08-11 16:30 |
| #8 The Russians might go into Ukraine anyway, as they are currently doing in Georgia. Its fairly clear that keeping a country OUT of NATO doesnt prevent russian intervention. We would have to move fairly quickly in extending security guarantees to the Ukraine. And yes, it might mean a smaller, more homogeneous Ukraine. What is the alternative now? Making it abundantly clear that any FSU country not yet in NATO is fair game? Effectively promising Russia a free hand in Ukraine, and in Azerbaijan? BTW, would we even come to the aid of the baltics, who ARE Nato members? Where does the retreat end? |
| Posted by: superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-11 16:28 |
| #7 One problem with inviting Ukraine into NATO is that the Ukrainians, a fair number of them, might want want to join. A goodly part of the Ukrainians are sympathetic to Russian, if not outright ethnic Russians. Ukraine has had a substantial east-west split for the past decade. So a frightening scenario: (A) we invite Ukraine into NATO (B) Russian ethnics and ex-commies protest and take to the streets (C) Russia moves to protect their interests by moving into Ukraine (D) The West does ... ? |
| Posted by: Steve White 2008-08-11 16:20 |
| #6 agree schwartz, the old bear included easter europe and the caucasus states, it does not now, and the new russia has an identity problem. there is wide spread corruption in the russian military, the lowest ranking serve for vodka rations.....these guys have no real foundation, the oil was found and delivered huge largesse, not to the country but to the few oligarchs in charge.russia isnt all it thinks it is. |
| Posted by: Spiny Gl 2511 2008-08-11 12:29 |
| #5 How big is the red army? If every ex satellite state declared war on Russia right now would they have a chance? Maybe there is a way to break the bear. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2008-08-11 12:19 |
| #4 One of the key reasons FOR the ukraine into NATO move would be to embarass Putin at home, to take the sheen off his 'victory' in Georgia, if that occurs. Im not willing to write off Georgia just yet, though Im not sure what we can do. |
| Posted by: superstitiousGalitizianer 2008-08-11 10:11 |
| #3 He's trying to reform the Soviet Empire, you need a boogey-man to do that. And it's us. |
| Posted by: Lonzo Unolump2106 2008-08-11 07:47 |
| #2 OS: Don't you also think that this was a very well planned preemptive "shot across the bow" to our plans to install SDI intercept technology in Lithuania or other ex-Soviet Bloc countries in Eastern Europe. Look at the Ruskies in Cuba and Bear flights around Alaska. All of this seems to me to be pushing the envelope on the part of the Russians. Putin needs some kind of shot across his bow. |
| Posted by: Jack is Back! 2008-08-11 04:21 |
| #1 If this is the case that he believes that then we MUST act to counter him. The strongest action we could take that he could not counter would be to get Ukraine into NATO and get basing/exercise rights there. Fast. Force aside the Germans and their obstructionism - remind them the price Georgia has paid due to their appeasement of a thug nation led by a KGB-Mafia don, Putin. Ukraine in NATO would be symbolic and strategic - and it would also have US F-22s flying joint border patrols on Russians border with the Ukrainians. That would put some steel into the backbones of the former soviet client states. Remember the Sudetenland, and how the Nazi Germans started? It woudl have been easy to stip them then, and at the rhineland reoccupation. But the world sat and did nothing and paid the price. Are we to sit on our hands and watch the Russians, under a gangster, reassemble their empire by intimidation and force? Its time for us to draw the line now, while we still can. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-11 01:57 |