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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia | |
| Ukraine fears it may be the next target | |
| 2008-08-22 | |
| Kiev - Ukraine fears it could be the next target of Russia's campaign to reassert influence over countries it long dominated in the Soviet Union, with Moscow well placed to foment separatist feelings in its Russian-speaking regions. Ukraine stood by Georgia in its war with Russia over the region of South Ossetia. President Viktor Yushchenko travelled to Georgia to show his support and announced tougher rules on Russian naval movements from a base in Ukraine. And in a departure from his usual careful balancing act between Russian and Western interests, Yushchenko attacked Russia over South Ossetia in a way more akin to Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. Some political analysts say that could heighten the risk. "When Ukraine prioritises its national interests, it goes against Russia's interests and, of course, there will be conflict," said Viktor Chumak, an analyst for Ukraine's International Centre for Policy Studies. "And Russia has broken through a psychological barrier to start this kind of war on former Soviet territory... Georgia had created itself in the shape of an enemy of Russia, and many in Russia already see us in the same way... We probably rank third in the list of Russia's leading enemies." Both born out of bloodless revolutions, one orange and one rose, Yushchenko and Saakashvili's administrations want to join NATO, the European Union and secure close ties with the United States. Like Georgia, Ukraine was not put on the fast-track to NATO membership at the alliance's summit last April, but was promised it would be allowed in one day. All of this has angered Russia which is fearful of having the Western military alliance on its doorstep. Other former Soviet republics have also been considering their rankings. Moldova, whose Communist government has courted the West rather than traditional ally Russia, fears it has taken the same path as Georgia and has Russian peacekeepers patrolling in its separatist Transdniestria region. Even Belarus's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, initially distanced himself from the war, which was criticised in the West. But subsequently, at Moscow's prompting, he praised Russia's "wisdom" in the way it handled the crisis. Analysts say the Crimea region in southern Ukraine could be used by Russia to destabilise Ukraine. It hosts Russia's Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol and the majority of people living there are ethnic Russians. Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine could also provide fertile ground, the analysts say.
Yushchenko was quick to call on the West to protect Georgia's territorial integrity. "When we think about our position on Georgia, I have no doubts... The loss of sovereignty, putting into doubt the territorial integrity of Georgia - this means revising the sovereignty of all," Yushchenko, swept to power by the 2004 "Orange revolution", said in a statement. Russia could also hold Ukraine ransom over its gas supplies. Moscow controls about 80 percent of Ukraine's supplies and in 2006 Russia cut supplies to Ukraine over a pricing dispute. "There is a reason to be wary in the short-term future, there is a threat in that Ukraine is similar to Georgia in terms of what has happened in recent years," said political analyst Oleksander Dergachev. "But I find it difficult to think that the threat posed is a military one. Russia relies on the fact that it has more of an influence over Ukraine economically." Most analysts cautioned against scare-mongering and said Ukraine could avoid confrontation by taking a pragmatic stance first and then reforming its economy in the long-term. "If Ukraine sorts out its domestic situation and consolidates its foreign policy in terms of European and Atlantic integration and this goes at a good pace then we can avoid the South Ossetian scenario," Chumak said. "I mean there is no stronger enemy to Ukraine than Ukraine itself, especially its politicians." | |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #28 I ment mutt. |
| Posted by: Deacon Blues 2008-08-22 20:25 |
| #27 Sry MattK. Mkiey is someone far different. Ed, please edit and correct if you can. Hurricanes and such. Its 5 O'clock somewhere. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-22 20:19 |
| #26 Mongrel? I prefer mutt. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-22 20:14 |
| #25 Thank the heavens I'm a mongrel. Deacon Blues, I believe that, ultimately, we all are. Take the area of Central Europe and count all the tribes and nations, armies that passed through and back and forth, in just the past 1500 years. |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-22 20:10 |
| #24 More of Mike K's Youtube Proof Dammit I hate when I fall for that... lol |
| Posted by: Beavis 2008-08-22 20:03 |
| #23 OS, that would be Matt K. Mike K is a 'burger of good standing and better judgement than mine (not that that's character-reference-level stuff) |
| Posted by: Frank G 2008-08-22 19:55 |
| #22 pardon me, Saddam Hussein a tyrant? How come, since when? MikeK, thanks for showing how stupid you can be. But in all fairness, I did found some video proof of Saddam being a jolly nice fellow, and it does back up your claim that Saddam was not a tyrant. More of Mike K's Youtube Proof Its probably more relevant than what you posted, and its certainly as informative. Let the debate begin! |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-22 19:45 |
| #21 Thank the heavens I'm a mongrel. |
| Posted by: Deacon Blues 2008-08-22 19:30 |
| #20 BTW, I could say that I am a Moravian, but that designation has only a regional meaning. It is not a nationality, nor an ethnicity, and despite that there are several Moravian dialects, they are variants of Czech language, mutually highly intelligible. My birth certificate states Nationality: Czech (Národnost: česká). Not moravská. |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-22 19:00 |
| #19 Re Ruthenians: According to a recent Ukrainian census, an overwhelming majority of Boykos, Lemkos, Hutsuls, Verkhovyntsi and Dolynians in Ukraine stated their nationality as being Ukrainian. About 10,100 people, or 0.8%, of Ukraine's Zakarpattia Oblast (province) identified themselves as Rusyns (Русини); by contrast, 1,010,000 considered themselves Ukrainians. Yea, opressed Ruthenians... It would be like saying that Moravian Valachs (Moravštà Valaši) are opressed by Czechs. They are Czechs, even though they were originally migrants from Wallachia, more than 3 centuries ago. |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-22 18:51 |
| #18 Liberal Hawk - you can stuff your hydrocephalic marines with your cheap lies. No state sponsored violence in Ukraine against minorities? Have you ever been there? If not, I highly recommend you to visit ... Uzhgorod, where oppressed Ruthenians started to issue their own passports. Do not ask Russians about forced ukrainization - ask a Hungarian in Karpatalja, a Pole in Tarnopol or a Gagauz in Budzhak, west of Odessa(they talk about an independent republic there, too). Guess what? None of them doesn't border Russia. |
| Posted by: Matt K. 2008-08-22 16:54 |
| #17 Betty Graning - pardon me, Saddam Hussein a tyrant? How come, since when? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDABe8AOuCQ |
| Posted by: Matt K. 2008-08-22 16:45 |
| #16 I've wondered whether the Ukrainians returned ALL the weapons they said they had. Guess we'll find out soon enough. |
| Posted by: ed 2008-08-22 12:57 |
| #15 How do you say Primorsky Krai in Chinese? |
| Posted by: Spike Uniter 2008-08-22 12:29 |
| #14 Following Russian precedent in Georgia, the Chinese shoudl start handing ouyt passports to the millions of ethnic chinese in Russian terriroty to the east. Hand them an AK as well. They outnumber ethnic Russians in a large number of areas in the east. Say goodbye to Vladivostok, Putin. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-08-22 11:55 |
| #13 While the Russians did take a beating in WWII, Russia and UK are the only two European empires not to have been defeated in war and dismembered as a result. The UK decided to, effectively, hand over its imperial responsibilities to the US which has, effectively, picked up the ball in its own unique way. I doubt the Russian will relinquish their imperial ambitions until they have lost a war. I would prefer that the Chinese wage it. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-08-22 10:29 |
| #12 oh and in Ukraine, there has been no violence directed by the state against its minority citizens. NONE. WHATSOEVER. Yet Russian apologists are already salivating at the prospect of breaking up the Ukraine. Showing their true colors. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-08-22 09:59 |
| #11 Ever make the mistake of calling a Ukranian a Russian? Don't... |
| Posted by: tu3031 2008-08-22 09:59 |
| #10 let me try. The ethnic Russians in Ukraine are well represented democratically by the "Party of the Regions", and Ukraine is a functioning democracy. The Kosovar Albanians, were a much smaller and permanent minority within the Republic of Serbia (that they situation was more complex in the Fed Rep of Yugoslavia overall, was of much less use to the Kos Albs, as FRY dissolved into its components, in part in response to Slobos aggressive Serb nationalism) Kosovos autonomous status was ended, leading to violent resistance in Kosovo. Still no sause for that gander from the West. Not even AFTER the Serb actions in Croatia and Bosnia. NATO was softer on Serbia and its presence in Kosovo that Ari was, apparently. Slobo then attempted to weaken Kos Alb resistance by cracking down on Kosovo MODERATES. Leaving the radical Kosovo Liberation Army as the only viable opponent of the Serbs. When he failed to defeat the KLA with ordinary military or counterinsurgency means (hard to clear hold build when the local population sees you as oppressors) he began to put Kosovar Albs on trains to Albania. Using massacres of adult male Kos Albs as a good incentive to get them to move. And by massacre we are not talking about them dying cause shells fell on a city where there were soldiers, or tripping over a cluster bomb. We're talking about unarmed civilians being lined up and shot, and their bodies carted to Belgrade to keep it a secret. Even so, NATO negotiated with Serbia to withdraw. When they did not, NATO intervened to end the ethnic cleansing. In S Ossetia, after GENEROUS offers of autonomy by Georgia, S Ossetians continued to engage in violence against Georgia. Georgia invaded using conventional military means, bombarded a city, and about a hundred or so S Ossetians died in the bombardment. Moscow claimed it was 2000 civvie deaths, called it genocide, and invaded within hours, no negotiations, no warning, no nothing. They managed through the most biased news reports (look at the Russia Today clips on Youtube) to convince their own people of the truth. And a few foreigners, mainly those who are less interested in the people of the Caucasus than they are in anti-US schadenfreude. |
| Posted by: liberalhawk 2008-08-22 09:57 |
| #9 and before some idiot comes back and points at the US intervention in Iraq - please - try to remember that Sadaam was a tyrant who invaded another country, subjected and murdered his people, threatened the west through his funding and support of terrorists and was given ample opportunity, through the UN and world collective, to modify his behavior before we went in and helped the Iraqi people form what will hopefully be a democracy. |
| Posted by: Betty Grating2215 2008-08-22 09:53 |
| #8 The argument should be framed in terms of "democracy" and the rights of citizens to determine their government. While this can result in civil wars (as in our own country) the idea that another country can just come in and invade should not be acceptable to anyone in this century. |
| Posted by: Betty Grating2215 2008-08-22 09:46 |
| #7 "what part of "sold" don't you understand?" Only those letters it shares with "given". But it's Putin's understanding of territorial rights that is the issue, not my own. |
| Posted by: Aris.Katsaris 2008-08-22 09:33 |
| #6 Well - what was good for a Yugoslav goose in the nineties, will be good for Ukrainian gander, eh? I opposed Clinton's intervention in Kosovo, exactly because I felt that supporting separatisms that are merely a disguise for neighbouring imperialisms is a very bad idea. But in the case of Kosovo Clinton could atleast claim that the Serbs had started the whole circle of separatism with their support of Serb separatism in Bosnia, in Croatia, etc... Serbia back then suffered nothing more than what it attempted is several other nations: if anything it was karmic justice. Ukraine is different -- Ukraine isn't an imperialist nation. Unlike Milosevich's Yugoslavia, Ukraine hasn't been supporting separatism in neighbouring regions of other countries. Unlike Milosevich's Yugoslavia, Ukraine hasn't armed minorities in neighbouring countries. Ukraine is peaceful and is merely seeking its own independence. That's the difference between Ukraine and Milosevich's Yugoslavia. And the difference between Ukraine and Putin's Russia for that part. |
| Posted by: Aris.Katsaris 2008-08-22 09:28 |
| #5 what part of "sold" don't you understand? |
| Posted by: Betty Grating2215 2008-08-22 09:27 |
| #4 "The Crimea was detached from Russia and given to the Ukraine by Stalin right after World War II. If Yushchenko is as smart as he thinks, give it back." And Alaska was detached from Russia and sold to the USA by some Czar. Will you suggest the same thing if Putin starts asking for Alaska back instead? It's time to stop appeasing the enemy. It's time to admit Ukraine into NATO and tell the world that we'll defend its territorial integrity, instead of asking it to hand off pieces of territory in further futile Munichs. |
| Posted by: Aris.Katsaris 2008-08-22 09:22 |
| #3 Well - what was good for a Yugoslav goose in the nineties, will be good for Ukrainian gander, eh? Except the Russian lust extends to the Baltic States as well just as Greater Serbia lusted for power and territory. It's pure Pan-Slavism whether its the Balkans or Eastern Europe. 'If we touch it, it's ours' philosophy. So since in their view, Might Makes Right, what does that allow US. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2008-08-22 09:07 |
| #2 The Russians already handed over about 400,000 passports to residents of Crimea (90% of its residents is Russian speaking). The next will be the south (with Odessa and the rest of Black Sea coast) and the richest, industrialized east of today's Ukraine - so-called "Novorossiya" (historical New Russia), mostly Russian speaking and staunch supporters of Viktor Yanukovych and his russofile Party of Regions. Well - what was good for a Yugoslav goose in the nineties, will be good for Ukrainian gander, eh? |
| Posted by: Matt K. 2008-08-22 02:12 |
| #1 BOTH RUSSIA + CHINA, etc. fear the RISE AND POTENCY OF NUCLEAR ISLAMISM in CENTRAL ASIA, plus themselves and all other ASIAN POWERS becom Islamist in their turn. Lest we fergit, 21ST CENTURY [old] > so-called ASIA = PACIFIC = ASIA-PACIFIC CENTURY >= may just start out wid a de facto PAN-ASIAN/EURASIAN-WIDE WAR FOR CONTROL OF SAME, TO DECIDE SAME??? |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-08-22 01:24 |