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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| The Gap and Georgia - Information Dissemination Blog |
| 2008-08-24 |
| Some really different points of view here - fits in with Tom Barnett's views |
| Posted by:3dc |
| #16 calling all bmps, mass our forces, we have date with A10's. calling all BMP drivers, your needed at the front....of that column right over there. calling all bmp driver replacements, your needed at coordinates....free vodka with every bmp. |
| Posted by: Spiny Gl 2511 2008-08-24 18:39 |
| #15 The Russians have enough BMP-2's in storage from the 80's to equip the current US army about four or five times over. They hand them to some Cossack and Chechnyan irregulars, send them into an area the regulars have already cleared but withdrawn from, and bam! there's your tripwire. Have 'em pillage the area, haul off the young men, and rape the women, and bam! you have your next vicious Georgian violation of the cease-fire agreement against your tripwire. And you don't have to worry about your line troops losing discipline from doing the looting pillaging and raping bit. They're all either dug in or waiting to go about 3/4 of an hour back and one phone call from the front lines. |
| Posted by: Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-24 16:49 |
| #14 combat inexperienced |
| Posted by: ed 2008-08-24 16:19 |
| #13 Bad, the Russian 58th Army is their most experience unit. They have been fighting a very nasty war in Chechnya and Caucasus these past years. In addition I have read the Russians rushed into battle their first line airborne reserve forces from St Pete and Moscow. (I may try a search for unit names). Scruffy doesn't mean not combat experienced. Discipline? Ask the East Germans in 1945. |
| Posted by: ed 2008-08-24 15:56 |
| #12 All I know is what I and the rest of the planet saw and thus I do not believe we saw Russian line units. All we saw were the armed yahoos, not Russian regulars. Not saying nor will I ever say Russian regulars are equal to our regulars, but I am saying you should step softly. We did not see the Bear's best, but we did see what we did see. And an armed rabble is a terrible way to base your knowledge of the readiness of the Russian Armed Forces. Were the US to tangle with the Russians, I will be the first in the stands with a Go USA pennant or a cheerleading outfit doing cheers for the USA. I just don't believe we saw Russian regulars. I can't believe it. The soldiers I saw were dirty, poorly groomed yahoos in camos, not trained front line soldiers. All I'm saying... |
| Posted by: badanov 2008-08-24 15:42 |
| #11 AS you let him off the hook, but of course you are right. " I'm not Badanov; AFAICT, the Georgians didn't go north until the tanks were already on their way south on the road through the tunnel, based on current information." The story circulating is that russia took defensive action post Georgias movements, in order to believe that, one would have to believe in materialization. The convoy of ru vehicles was reported between 600 and 1200 total vehicles. That organization takes time getting into position, georgia forces must have gotten a heads up. too bad they didnt shut the tunnel as priority 1. ru propaganda is so blantantly reliant on the ignorance of any reader. the left is predisposed to defend putin, of course. but its clear that the only question needed to defeat that rhetoric is to demand to know where those vehicles were two weeks or even days before the move.....clearly putin thought he'd waltz right in unopposed, set up shop and fait acompli. badinovs change of subject is more posturing, start with the air, and reverse the course of this misadventure. Nato air is formidable, russia will lose its air forces within a week to 10 days. |
| Posted by: Spiny Gl 2511 2008-08-24 15:39 |
| #10 looks like they were all caught flatfooted. Sadly, "they" were not alone. Not surprising however, since our intelligence community had little or no situational awarenes of pending Paki nuclear testing. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2008-08-24 14:45 |
| #9 I'm not Badanov; AFAICT, the Georgians didn't go north until the tanks were already on their way south on the road through the tunnel, based on current information. The Georgians did make a couple big mistakes: not being mobilized already, not having artillery zeroed in on the tunnel (I'm thinking of MLRS type rockets) and the surrounding road... if you ignore the "We all know it was started by Georgian aggression" line it looks like they were all caught flatfooted. Badanov: I kind of suspect that the Russian line troops are five to ten miles back in case their bearded irregulars actually run into any resistance, then they can rush forward with a standard "Georgia broke the ceasefire again, the bastards" refrain. |
| Posted by: Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-24 14:39 |
| #8 so badanov, in your opinion, did the georgians make a mistake going north? |
| Posted by: Spiny Gl 2511 2008-08-24 14:22 |
| #7 I didn't see any line forces; just a lot of fellas with really good air support. Maybe. However all during the 70s and 80s we were told the Soviet soldier was 10 foot tall able to endure the unbearable and impervious to moral breaking environments. The Arab-Israel wars were just discounted as arabs [monkeys in Russian lexicon] using Soviet equipment and failing to perform. Then Afghanistan happened and while the 'line' units could chew up the third world types who stood, with the air contested, the little guys showed what the Soviet doctrine was - something still WWII overwhelming mass. When that wasn't in play, the Russians were often cooked. However, excuses were continued to be made for their performance. Then Chetchnya unfolded revealing that the bear had not really changed much from '45. The whole operation in Georgia doesn't show much beyond that. From what I gather, it appears those who've faced both of our forces term our line units as spetsnaz /commandos in respect to their force. And those are few in their force structure while many in ours. I'm not advocating going toe to toe unless the bear plays real stupid power tricks, but I'm not going to be a McClellan either. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2008-08-24 14:00 |
| #6 Nato should take on the russian airforce....get control of the skies, next the seas. russia is the same ole extorionist its always been. made some oligarchs rich, used oil as a weapon to extort advantage, didnt adapt to market, reverted only to its mean potential....nato can handle them and should do so without delay. With all due respect, Russia isn't Iraq or Iran or any of the desert mobocracies. It has a real military with real doctrine developed over centuries. Its equipment, at least the stuff the press showed in the Georgian invasion is crap; I seriously doubt we saw any Russian line units. What I did see was a lot of yahoos with heavily AK-47s riding atop BMP-1s and BMP-2s, all hell bent on looting and raping; Bearded, unshaven, unclean fillers with donning watch caps, garrison caps and do-rags. I didn't see any line forces; just a lot of fellas with really good air support. In other words, I don't believe the Russians would have tipped whatever hand they wanted us to see if they didn't want us to see it. Remember the .pdf released by orbat.com just a few days ago? A SPETSNAZ unit riding atop BMP-2s? Are you f*cking kidding me? Would any special forces allow themselves to be caught being photographed much less in a 30 year old IFV? Riding in a road column? Participating in joy road down Highway One to Gori? Put yourself in the 58th Army commander's position. Is the best use of SPETSNAZ units going on a joyride to be photographed by a fawning press? Seriously? We didn't see Russian line forces, and so we have zero idea what they have ready to go to war. Do you want to take that chance against the Russian Air Force and Army, the forces we haven't seen yet? We did see a buncha yahoos armed with AKs with very good air support who were apparently told it's okay if they identified themselves as SPETSNAZ, cuz who the f*ck knows the difference? Enjoy getting even with the bastard Georgians. That's what they were told. |
| Posted by: badanov 2008-08-24 13:00 |
| #5 core and gap are distractions. more of the same ole pap, barnett is a mouthppiece for sustaining oligarchic largesse. Nato should take on the russian airforce....get control of the skies, next the seas. russia is the same ole extorionist its always been. made some oligarchs rich, used oil as a weapon to extort advantage, didnt adapt to market, reverted only to its mean potential....nato can handle them and should do so without delay. |
| Posted by: Spiny Gl 2511 2008-08-24 12:00 |
| #4 Its the same old apologists in new suits coming out of the woodwork again crying let's not have another Cold War II. It's not our choice, it's one forced upon us by the reemergence of unrepentant Pan-Slavism. The Russians know that even with the monies coming in from oil and gas its still not enough to operate the very basics of a viable economy and have to play the 'Star Wars' game with a US that sets out a la Reagan to rebuild its military it disassembled in the 90s. So the Russians prod their sock puppets [same old excuses and warnings] to sell their game of 'let's not do something'. The US is getting nearer and nearer technically to first strike capability which would if focused would defang the bear once and for all. Expect all the soft power they have to be expended to stop that. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2008-08-24 11:56 |
| #3 I can't help but think that "core" and "gap" are just convenient words to make us feel better about the goddamn crappy empires re-establishing themselves onto the less-developed world. Russia gets to be 'core' and Georgia 'gap' in his analysis for no good reason I can see. |
| Posted by: Abdominal Snowman 2008-08-24 11:44 |
| #2 Those are Barnett's views. Galrahn is a sychophant for Dr. Barnett, now Tom. What gets me is that Russia is included in the Core. Sorry, it's part of the Gap. And I'm not too sure about China, either. So throw them in the Gap and what do you have in the Core? EUrope, US, Canada, Mexico(?!), Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, India, Japan, Australia, New Zealand. That's starting to look a lot like something else, at least the operational portions. The Anglosphere perhaps? And these Sys Admins Barnett wants to ship out to help the natives, are they really secular missionaries? |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-08-24 10:20 |
| #1 I find it ironic that the Middle East, Iran and Pakistan are not even considered as part of the State and DoD map. These are the core inflammations presently for the planet and are not considered major economic interests to protect or defend. The middle east with its oil assets are not on the map? Call me skeptical to that kind of thinking. |
| Posted by: Jack is Back! 2008-08-24 10:03 |