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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
A Very Small Pond For Superpower Games Part Two
2008-08-28

(Alexander Khramchikhin is head of the analytical department at the Institute of Political and Military Analysis in Moscow. This article is reprinted by permission of RIA Novosti. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.)

Note this paragraph:
A host of factors will determine the future of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Sevastopol and the Crimea. It is unlikely that the Black Sea Fleet will stay in Sevastopol after the lease expires in 2017. Logic suggests that either it will move base to Russia before the final date or the Crimea and Ukraine will see major political changes.

Sounds like a major threat to me!
Head to the article and read the whole thing.
Posted by:3dc

#6  Putin is not so different than Hitler. Hitler killed off "undesirables." dressed them in Polish uniforms, dumped the bodies across the border in Germany, said Poland attacked German forces, and used that as a provocation to declare war on and attack Poland.
Posted by: JohnQC   2008-08-28 18:31  

#5  
Putin is an advanced black belt in judo.  He does international relations like a judeka.


When the West refuses to leave, he will argue we've broken international agreements and will use that as justification to do what he always intended to do, having gotten us to provide the pretext.


Some around the world will buy his interpretation, count on it.
Posted by: lotp   2008-08-28 13:12  

#4  Russia has gotten the attention of it's neighbors. It will not like many of the responses. Long term, bad move.
Posted by: Richard of Oregon   2008-08-28 10:00  

#3  Unexpected consequences tend to be so very ... unplanned for.
Posted by: trailing wife    2008-08-28 08:22  

#2  Wouldn't be surprised to a major expansion of a Romanian naval base.
Posted by: ed   2008-08-28 08:20  

#1  NATO is building some pretty serious heavy metal in the Black Sea, I wouldn't be surprised to see a permanent contingent there. If the russians let on to it at all, they must really be shitting their pants over this.
Posted by: bigjim-ky   2008-08-28 08:02  

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