| Submit your comments on this article |
| Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
| Georgia Crisis Plays to Iran's Advantage - For Now |
| 2008-09-02 |
| Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad has been unusually cautious in reacting to Russia’s battle with the west over Georgia. Unlike his Syrian counterpart, who had lavished praise on Moscow and justified its military intervention, the Iranian president last week went only as far as to criticise obliquely those who were lambasting Russia. “Countries that do not belong to a region do not interfere with the countries of that region,” he declared at the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation summit. It is to Iran’s advantage to stay on the sidelines as a new geopolitical game unfolds, and Tehran tries to figure out its place in it. True, Tehran stands to benefit as Russia raises the price of its co-operation with other United Nations Security Council members on curbing the Iranian nuclear programme. But it is not unthinkable that Moscow would eventually try to buy its way out of the European crisis by offering more forceful help on Iran. In the short term, trouble in another part of the world is surely good news for Mr Ahmadi-Nejad. It buys his scientists time to keep those centrifuges spinning and mastering nuclear technology. And it fits perfectly with the Iranian strategy of delaying the nuclear crisis at least until the next US president takes over. The Iran nuclear dispute has disappeared from the headlines only a few weeks after it seemed to be coming to a head. This summer world powers, including Russia, renewed an offer of economic and political incentives to Tehran to persuade it to halt its uranium enrichment programme. Iran reacted by dragging its feet. People close to the regime whispered to all who were willing to listen that Iran was interested in the package’s sweetener. Under the European offer, Iran could, as a first step, freeze only the expansion of uranium enrichment activities and the UN would stop its pursuit of more sanctions. When speculation was mounting that Israel could launch military strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities – thanks to apparent American opposition, the speculation has since subsided – the US agreed, for the first time, for a senior US official to take part in face-to-face talks with an Iranian negotiator. Iran, however, celebrated the concession and offered nothing in return. Instead of an expected Yes or Maybe at the Geneva talks, diplomats received an Iranian counter offer of endless talks about talks. Iran’s attitude frustrated all participants, including the Russians, and raised the prospect of a more determined international front against Iran. Moscow, however, was still uneasy about imposing a fresh round of UN sanctions. Now, with the US and western European governments condemning Russia for intervening in Georgia and recognising the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, its resistance will harden. But it is too early to assume that, if the world faces a resurgent and more aggressive Russia, Iran will be off the hook. For one thing, the crisis could encourage the European Union to follow the US example and impose a further raft of unilateral sanctions against Tehran. Moscow’s aim, moreover, appears to be to assert itself near its borders, not necessarily to provoke a wider global conflict. And while its relations with Iran have been friendly, Moscow fears an Iranian nuclear bomb as much as, if not more than, the US. Russia’s history of intervention in Persia, meanwhile, leaves Iranians wary of its intentions. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister and former president, hinted last week that co-operation over Iran hinged on the west’s talking to Russia about its own concerns. But he also made clear that Russia had backed three UN sanctions resolutions on Iran because it was in its own “national interests”. Iranians can rejoice for now at the erupting tensions in Europe. But it is doubtful that they will be counting on Russia to get them out of the nuclear dispute. |
| Posted by:Pappy |
| #2 If the Iranians are stupid enough to let the Russians in, then they deserve the absolute rape of their country that will follow. The Russians have been lusting after the Persian Gulf since Ivan the Terrible's time and if they get in, it will take a massive war to get them out. The only reason that the Soviets left Iran after WWII was that the US was occupying the lower half of the country and Truman made it clear what the costs would be if the Red Army tried to stay. |
| Posted by: Shieldwolf 2008-09-02 02:08 |
| #1 See also TOPIX > DRIVING RUSSIA INTO THE ENEMY's HANDS [Iran]. Russ is reportedly negotiating wid Iran to set up TWO MILBASES inside IRAN - one in eastern Iran/Azerbaijan, a second on an island in the Persian Gulf, as price for Rus admission into the SCO [CSTO?] and which undoubtedly is intended to protect Iran from Western attack. Also from TOPIX > THE SCO'S RISING POWER IN ASIA; + IRAN AND KAZAKHISTAN SITTING ONA TREE ... NOPE, THEY'RE JUST FRIENDS, + RUSSIA IS FACING A NEW CAUCASUS UPRISING IN INGUSHETIA. |
| Posted by: JosephMendiola 2008-09-02 00:22 |