Just over a month ago, prospects for peace in the troubled southern Philippines looked brighter than in a long time. A Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain had been drawn up, extending the land area to be administered by autonomous Muslim leaders. Mediators had helped maintain a ceasefire; a compromise definition of the eternally sticky concept of Ancestral Domain appeared possible. Now, the MoA is dead, the negotiating panel abolished, the ceasefire abandoned and hopes for peace dashed. "It was in 1996 that then President (Fidel) Ramos reached a peace deal with the MNLF (Moro National Liberation Front). Negotiations resumed under President (Gloria) Arroyo in 2001. So now we've lost 12 years, we've lost ground, we've lost goodwill," said Marites Vitug, author of several books about Mindanao and editor of Newsbreak, a Philippines news magazine.
In the past few months, negotiations between the Arroyo government and the MILF appeared to be making progress - until the Philippine Supreme Court blocked ratification. On 5 August, government officials and foreign diplomats flocked to Malaysia - which mediated the process - for the planned signing of the MoA , only to retreat red-faced. The court was responding to virulent protests by Christian communities in areas of Mindanao that the agreement would convert into Muslim-controlled lands.
Conflict immediately broke out on the ground, with Philippine military claims that Muslim rebels were occupying villages being countered by MILF complaints that the government could not be trusted. With perhaps half a million people displaced and some hundreds killed, observers now concur that two MILF commanders - Kato and Bravo - did launch attacks in Lanao del Norte and North Cotabato. The MILF leadership has blamed the attacks on what it calls these two "renegade" commanders, but refuses to hand them over.
"We were informed that long before 5 August, the military had been moving troops into an area in Lanao del Norte that was close to an MILF camp and so the MILF shored up their forces - this could explain why hostilities were so quick to break out," said Amina Rasul, director of the Philippine Council for Islam and Democracy, a Manila-based think tank. What she cannot understand is why long-standing mechanisms of ceasefire enforcement were not activated, mediators brought in and the violence stopped. "Instead, both sides went at each other. Instead of cool heads prevailing, military action immediately took place," Ms Rasul said.