The Taliban have agreed to sever ties with Al Qaeda in talks backed by the United Kingdom and hosted by Saudi Arabia, according to a commentary released here on Thursday.Stratfor, the news intelligence service, reports that the assurance from the Taliban benefits Saudi Arabia, since it has a key interest in bringing an end to the Osama Bin Laden chapter. The Saudis could also use an Afghan state with a major Taliban presence to counter the rise of Iran. The talks, hosted by Saudi King Abdullah himself, were held from September 24 to 27 in Mecca and involved 11 Taliban delegates, two Afghan government officials, a representative of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and three others. Taliban leader Mullah Muhammad Omar has made it clear that he is no longer allied with Al Qaeda.
According to Stratfor, Mullah Omar likely is in the Pashtun corridor of Balochistan province and Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri likely are in the Dir/Malakand region. The Afghan Taliban movement has splintered into three groups: Taliban forces linked to Omar but based in Afghanistan and engaged in the fighting; Taliban elements allied with Pakistan, and Taliban fighters connected to Al Qaeda. The analysis predicts that ultimately there will be a negotiated settlement with a new leadership that will retain its ideology but within the confines of the Afghan nation-state and will abandon not just Al Qaeda but also its transnational objectives of a supranational caliphate. The Taliban leadership knows it paid a heavy price for its unwillingness to part ways with Al Qaeda. The Taliban leaders have also noted that Al Qaeda has lost appeal among the locals and realise that if they do not change, they could be sidelined by more pragmatic elements.
Riyadh's ability to significantly neutralise jihadists at home has given the Saudis great influence over the Taliban's thinking. The Saudis have an interest in laying Bin Laden and the core Al Qaeda group to rest. Also, Pakistan, which used to work in tandem with the Saudis on the Taliban issue, is in disarray. With Islamabad fighting its own Taliban insurgency, the Saudis have taken the lead in Afghanistan. It is also quite likely that the Pakistanis need the Saudis to use not only their financial clout but also their political clout with Washington as relations between Islamabad and Washington deteriorate. Facilitating a new power-sharing arrangement in which the Taliban return to power in significant ways could serve as a major check on growing Iranian regional influence. Saudi Arabia already has Pakistan as a regional ally and has used it to block Iran from expanding its influence eastward. With the return of the Taliban to power in Kabul, Riyadh hopes to reverse the inroads Tehran has made there during the last seven years.