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Home Front: Politix

Final polls tight in key states

2008-11-03

From The Politico and the Mason-Dixon poll. I have no idea how many PUMAs are represented, how many will vote or stay home, how many frustrated conservatives likewise will stay home, and how much of the vaunted 'youth vote' will turn out.

The final round of Mason-Dixon polls has Obama enjoying small leads in the red states that would deliver him the presidency, but he's below 50 percent in each and there are enough white undecided voters to leave some too close to call.

Colorado: Obama 49, McCain 44, Undecided 4
Florida: Obama 47, McCain 45, Undecided 7
Nevada: Obama 47, McCain 43, Undecided 8
Pennsylvania: 47, McCain 43, Undecided 9
Virginia: Obama 47, McCain 44, Undecided 9
Ohio: McCain 47, Obama 45, Undecided 6
Missouri: McCain 47, Obama 46, Undecided 5
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 46, Undecided 5

As Brad Coker, who runs the Mason-Dixon poll, notes, the vast majority of the undecided voters in these states are whites.

If these undecided voters all break for McCain, it may be enough for him to eke out a small win. But there is another possibility: that some of these undecided voters who can't bring themselves to support a black candidate but are also unhappy with the GOP just stay home.

Posted by:Steve White

#7 Let the lefty panic begin.

Can Obama win popular vote but lose election?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081103/ap_on_el_pr/split_decision_4

Posted by: tu3031 2008-11-03 16:45

#6 I've talked to several friends over the last couple of weeks, and they've all said the same thing - they're tired of robo-calls and "polls". Most either hang up on them, or tell them politely they're not interested and THEN hang up on them. Since most of my friends are conservatives, I'd say the conservative voice in Colorado polls is greatly under-reported. I don't see Obama with a 5-point lead, especially after his comments about bankrupting coal. Colorado produces a LOT of coal, and anyone that say ugly things about it isn't popular for very long. There are some places in Colorado (the People's Republic of Boulder, for instance) that Obama will carry. His comments about coal will doom him with the western half of the state, although those are usually "blue" voters. It's going to be "interesting" watching the returns tomorrow night.

Posted by: Old Patriot 2008-11-03 16:33

#5 We thank Colorado for its wonderful anthracite coal from the Canyon City area. I thought the west and east were red and the urban strip on the east side of the rockies was blue?

Posted by: bman 2008-11-03 16:25

#4 I've talked to several friends over the last couple of weeks, and they've all said the same thing - they're tired of robo-calls and "polls". Most either hang up on them, or tell them politely they're not interested and THEN hang up on them. Since most of my friends are conservatives, I'd say the conservative voice in Colorado polls is greatly under-reported. I don't see Obama with a 5-point lead, especially after his comments about bankrupting coal. Colorado produces a LOT of coal, and anyone that say ugly things about it isn't popular for very long. There are some places in Colorado (the People's Republic of Boulder, for instance) that Obama will carry. His comments about coal will doom him with the western half of the state, although those are usually "blue" voters. It's going to be "interesting" watching the returns tomorrow night.

Posted by: Old Patriot 2008-11-03 13:43

#3 If you vote, your guy may lose, or your vote might not "count" for a host of other reasons. Or it might be decisive. My father won his first general election by 0.5 votes per precinct. W won Florida by 537 votes.

If you don't vote, it is 100% certain your vote will not count.

Therefore, vote.

Posted by: Mike 2008-11-03 08:13

#2 The "undecided voter" of this election has significantly more to be concerned about than a political contest, I assure you. Quite frankly, I hope to never meet one, either in person, at a stop sign, or in oncoming automobile traffic.

Posted by: Besoeker 2008-11-03 07:40

#1 What amazes me in all these polls are the number of "undecided". I think it is people who want to vote for McCain but are embarrassed to say they will because of their environment or demographic or a friend standing next to them. Or they could be the PUMA's who are legitimately torn between their Democratic/Progressive/Liberal inclinations and voting for someone like Obama who they see as a threat to American exceptionalism. Whatever, if they are likely voters, I say that favors McCain. Lets hope so for the sake of the republic.

Posted by: Jack is Back! 2008-11-03 07:29

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