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Home Front Economy
Oil falls to $55
2008-11-13
SINGAPORE (AP) — Oil prices slid to near $55 a barrel Thursday in Asia as more bad economic news from the U.S. heightened fears of a severe global downturn that will pulverise demand for crude. Light, sweet crude for December delivery was down 81 cents to $55.35 a barrel, after falling as low as $55.03, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midmorning in Singapore.

"There are fears of reduced demand through 2009," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst at consultancy Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "Market sentiment is extremely bearish. It seems like there's nothing that can stop the bears."

The crude futures contract overnight fell $3.50 to settle at $56.16, the lowest closing price since January 2007, after the U.S. Energy Department slashed its 2009 oil consumption forecast. The department said Wednesday it expects U.S. consumption of petroleum to next year drop more severely than any time since 1980. The department's Energy Information Administration said 2009 petroleum consumption is projected to sink by 250,000 barrels per day, or 1.3 percent, more than twice that projected in its previous outlook.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about 40 percent of world supplies, has signaled it may cut production before its next meeting in December on top of a 1.5 million barrel reduction in output quotas last month. "I think OPEC considers $50 a must-defend price," Shum said. "There are bullish elements that the market has been ignoring."

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 1.39 cents to $1.82 a gallon, while gasoline prices dropped 0.3 cents to $1.24 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery slid 8.6 cents to $6.32 per 1,000 cubic feet. In London, December Brent crude fell 41 cents to $51.96 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Posted by:Steve White

#10   Operations. Drilling in North American oil and gas fields continues at full speed. During October, operations on American sites involved rig counts ranging from 1,964 to 2,018, 11-13% ahead of the comparable periods in 2007. In Canada the rig counts varied from 431 to 470 and topped the year-ago levels by 30-37%.
Posted by: 3dc   2008-11-13 23:31  

#9  I can't say I'm terribly surprised by this and I'm sure the same goes for most people who've been paying attention. I'm no "economist" in the Paul Krugman sense of the word (and for that, I'm very thankful), but the exorbitantly high prices from this past summer were simply not sustainable in the long term.

The price of oil, much like the price of real estate for most of the last 7 years, rose quickly on the basis of speculation, by and large. There were few, if any, good rationales behind $150 per barrell oil. At it's height, it was priced at least 30% to 40% higher than the supply and demand would normally dictate. As with any speculative bubble, the speculators blew the bubble up too big until it finally popped. The credit crisis and the following economic downturn have served to exacerbate and accelerate the process and could well extend it out longer than normal.

What goes up must come down. Although how long it will stay down is anyone's guess.
Posted by: eltoroverde   2008-11-13 17:39  

#8  Bloomberg has a story today that futures/options are pricing oil next year at $30/barrel.
Posted by: phil_b   2008-11-13 15:29  

#7  Oil's fluctuation has clearly been due to more than supply and demand. I don't know what the "real" price of oil is...maybe it is $65 a barrel. If it had stayed at that price, I wonder if we would be writing a $50 bil check to the car companies now. Maybe it would have delayed things a year. Regardless, this is great for folks at the margin and great for the country as a whole.
Posted by: remoteman   2008-11-13 15:29  

#6  I'm betting it won't stay that low for long

Just long enough to stamp out the competition.
Posted by: KBK   2008-11-13 12:42  

#5  Yeah, the financial companies were buying huge amounts of oil as a hedge. Now that some of them are being liquidated (Lehman, etc) that oil is being sold in the market.

But it is temporary, oil "belongs" about $60-$65 at current supply/demand.
Posted by: crosspatch   2008-11-13 11:05  

#4  And don't forget that the banks are all lining up to get their cut of the bailout pie since they're not lending money [particularly to their paper fronts they used to speculate on oil just a month or so ago]. If you can't borrow money to speculate, you can't keep the price up either. Market call by natural forces [which should have been done by regulators months ago to avoid a lot of this crap].
Posted by: Procopius2k   2008-11-13 07:52  

#3  Ah, ok, oil didn't fall because of any "economic concerns". The dollar rose again today. When the dollar rises in value, things traded in dollars fall. Oil went up today if you are paying for it in Euros.
Posted by: crosspatch   2008-11-13 02:13  

#2  Home prices in my area are already starting to recover. A friend's home who had dropped over 200K in value according to zillow went up 25K over the past three weeks.
Posted by: crosspatch   2008-11-13 01:38  

#1  Enjoy it while it lasts. I'm betting it won't stay that low for long, especially when the Chinese start ramping up the projects their own "stimulus package" is paying for...
Posted by: Ricky bin Ricardo (Abu Babaloo)   2008-11-13 01:10  

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