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| Europe |
| Germany 10 Year Bond Auction Fails |
| 2008-11-17 |
| For any government looking to raise money in the capital markets in the next few months, there was an Âominous development in Germany this week. A German 10-year bond auction failed -- something more or less unheard of until this year -- as cash-strapped banks and investors snubbed the government offering. It is a clear sign of straitened times when a benchmark bond in one of the most liquid markets in the world cannot attract enough bids to reach its target amount. Crucially, it raises serious doubts about whether governments can raise the vast amounts of debt needed to fund fiscal stimulus packages and bank recapitalisations in the current tough market conditions. Any sign of waning demand may force up bond yields -- putting further pressure on public finances when they are already under strain. Nowhere is the issue more pressing than in the US. |
| Posted by:Anonymoose |
| #18 I think that would be, technically, "self-pre-screwed", wouldn't it? Actually, good news here. I vaguely recall (correct me please) that a signature moment in the Carter fiasco was the bond market's rejection of the federal budget submission (1979?). I've kinda been hoping for the same thing for the USG for a long time. The only actual restraint on our imprudence would seem to be a scarcity of lenders. I'ma also thinking that unless the hangover (unwinding of leverage) from this latest greatest binge really really sucks, odds of a repeat will be distressingly high. |
| Posted by: Verlaine 2008-11-17 23:34 |
| #17 Anyone who is paying their own mortgage is a sucker. |
| Posted by: SR-71 2008-11-17 21:10 |
| #16 3DC Fill this out http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/reports/applicationguidelines.pdf |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2008-11-17 18:57 |
| #15 What do I need to do to qualify for a bail out. I'm not ashamed to take billions! |
| Posted by: 3dc 2008-11-17 17:46 |
| #14 A quick calculation is government debt (all developed countries) will increase by 15% to 20% of GDP over the next 12 to 16 months ex 'economic stimulus', due to falling revenues and increasing welfare, etc. payments. With economic stimulus, bailouts etc, probably north of 25% of GDP. Those are big numbers. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2008-11-17 17:30 |
| #13 They remember Alaska Paul, they remember. Don't think for a minute they would spend it so lavishly if it came from their pockets. |
| Posted by: JFM 2008-11-17 16:10 |
| #12 BP---you are correct. Thanks for pointing out where the money comes from. I wish that Washington DC remembered where the money comes from. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2008-11-17 15:53 |
| #11 taxpayer debt. |
| Posted by: OldSpook 2008-11-17 15:28 |
| #10 > w/r/t govt money giveaways cough, that would be taxpayer money. |
| Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2008-11-17 14:58 |
| #9 "He has not even taken office yet and he is pre-screwed." Thanks for warming my cockles, AP. :-D |
| Posted by: Barbara Skolaut 2008-11-17 13:50 |
| #8 The Big O has made a lot of industrial strength promises to people that he cannot keep, w/r/t govt money giveaways. If he cannot deliver, he will alienate his base. Damned if you do, and damned if you don't. He has not even taken office yet and he is pre-screwed. When painting the floor, always first look for the door. |
| Posted by: Alaska Paul 2008-11-17 11:39 |
| #7 This one of those rare "Oh shit!" moments. And in it, the Republicans have their issue for the next election provided Bambi doesn't do the unexpected and lower spending. |
| Posted by: Mike N. 2008-11-17 10:57 |
| #6 The government's own subprime paper. Betting on the chicken's chicken's chicken's hatchlings showing up. We've checked your income statements and projected what you can be expected to produce in 10 years, and the numbers aren't matching there old boy. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2008-11-17 09:33 |
| #5 Too bad the US is no longer a world player, or we could have bought some of those bonds from the germs. |
| Posted by: bigjim-ky 2008-11-17 08:30 |
| #4 Watch Iceland for the preview. |
| Posted by: Nimble Spemble 2008-11-17 07:07 |
| #3 Not being able to afford a gov't bond sourced stimulous package? How very insightful and conservative of the Germans. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2008-11-17 06:41 |
| #2 Interestingly Japan has the highest level of public debt (as a %age of GDP) in the world (excluding a couple of places like Zimbobwe). Japanese debt is 3 times the USA's level. Germany's debt is not much lower the USA's. But we are going to see an explosion of government debt and in all likelyhood countries going bankrupt. |
| Posted by: phil_b 2008-11-17 01:22 |
| #1 Uncle Sam under these conditions won't be so quick to whip out the old plastic to pay for the Next Big Agenda.™ |
| Posted by: badanov 2008-11-17 00:16 |