Iran is forging ahead with its nuclear programme, the United NationsÂ’ nuclear watchdog reported on Wednesday, deepening the dilemma facing US president-elect Barack Obama over his campaign promise to engage with Tehran.
The latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency reveals that Iran is rapidly increasing its stockpile of enriched uranium, which could be rendered into weapons-grade material should Tehran decide to develop a nuclear device. The agency says that, as of this month, Tehran had amassed 630kg of low enriched uranium hexafluoride, up from 480kg in late August. Analysts say Iran is enriching uranium at such a pace that, by early next year, it could reach break-out capacity – one step away from producing enough fissile material for a crude nuclear bomb.
| 630 kg of low-enriched uranium (I think that's ~5% enriched) is enough for nuclear power stations. I see various numbers quoted for the highly enriched uranium required for a bomb: most say 80% but some say 20% if you don't mind a dirty, low-yield bomb. But to get to 80% enrichment that 630 kg becomes ~40 kg, minus any losses in additional centrifugation, and that ought to be enough to build a small bomb or two. |
“They are moving forward, they are not making diplomatic overtures, they are accumulating low enriched uranium,” said Cliff Kupchan, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy in Washington. “These guys are committed to their nuclear programme: if we didn’t know that, they just told us again.”
| Bambi and the Dhimmicrats aren't listening. They think they can talk to Short Round and succeed where the Brits, Germans and French have failed. And Bambi could: all he has to do is sacrifice Israel. That might buy us a few years. Maybe. |
The IAEA report also says there has been a breakdown of communication between the agency and Iran over alleged research on an atomic weapon. “The Iranians are making good progress on enrichment but there is absolute stone-walling on past military activities,” said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International institute for Strategic Studies. “It’s very disappointing.”
| Get thee to the hotel bar then and drown your disappointment ... |
The progress chalked up by Iran increases the difficulties for Mr Obama, who campaigned on promises of talking to AmericaÂ’s enemies, although during the election he scaled down his initial vow to meet IranÂ’s leaders to a more general commitment to consider doing so if it advanced US interests.
| And unfortunately McCain could never pin him to the wall on that, not that it would have mattered to the people who voted for Bambi. Bambi needs to learn: when you talk with thugs, you end up talking about what you're going to do for them and not vice-versa. |
“Obama faces a real dilemma,” said the Eurasia Group’s Mr Kupchan. “He must decide whether to pursue diplomacy quickly in light of rapid Iranian progress or whether to wait in the hope of a more moderate Iranian leadership after Iran’s June presidential election.”
| There's a third option: what I've called Operation Lemony Snickett, which implements a whole series of unfortunate events in Iran, all designed to put the current regime of Mad Mullahs™ in disrepute. The fourth option is brute military force: not preferred but all we may be left with. The fifth option is to let the Israelis do the job, if they can. Mr. Kupchan didn't mention any of those. |
European diplomats have responded favourably to Mr ObamaÂ’s suggestion of US engagement with Iran, although they are keen to avoid unilateral US actions that would rip up the approach fashioned by the permanent five members of the UN Security Council and Germany. |