For 10 years, South Korea has pursued a "sunshine policy" as its master plan for transforming North Korea. Under that banner, South Korea funneled billions of dollars to the North for new factories, hotels and food, and millions of South Korean tourists poured across the border. But eight months after President Lee Myung-bak came to office here promising a harder approach, the once vaunted policy has unraveled. North Korea has cut off high-level dialogue with the South. It has severed Red Cross-managed telephone "hot lines" crossing the demilitarized zone. In July, a North Korean soldier shot and killed a South Korean tourist visiting its Diamond Mountain resort, leading to its closing.The North is now threatening to shut down an industrial complex in the North Korean town of Kaesong, the best South Korea had to show for its 10 years of sunshine policy. During an inspection tour earlier this month, a high-ranking North Korean general turned to the South Korean factory owners and asked, "How soon do you think you can pack your gear and go home?" Last week, North Korea further confounded the rest of the world. It said it had never agreed to let American experts take samples from its main nuclear complex, contrary to Washington's announcement that it had.
All in all, the North's actions seemed to point not only to the end of the sunshine policy but also to a dangerous disintegration of relations. But longtime North Korea watchers see it much differently, saying that the moves fit a familiar and consistent pattern, and that they may even signal an upturn in relations with the United States. Over the years, they say, North Korea has divided its negotiations with the outside world into what analysts call "salami pieces," maximizing its gains at each stage. If the opponent balks, it uses brinkmanship. "North Korea got what it could from Bush. Now it is signaling to President-elect Barack Obama, 'O.K., let's negotiate again over nuclear sampling,' " said Lee Sang-hyun, an analyst at Sejong Institute, a research organization. "To Lee Myung-bak, its message is that it means action if he doesn't reconsider his policy."